Verdict: HOLD for review. 800 kWp rooftop PV at a tropical-coastal SEA resort hotel, modelled with LONGi Hi-MO 6 LR5-54HTH-family modules + Sungrow SG110CX-class string inverters, DC/AC ratio ≈1.15, 25-yr horizon, 9.00% discount. NPV = −36,156 USD; IRR = 8.69% (below WACC); simple payback = 10.95 yr; discounted payback = not achieved; LCOE = 0.1371 USD/kWh. Equipment: PV inverter + module stack for an 800 kWp rooftop. Location: Southeast Asia (representative tropical-coastal P50 tile). Horizon: 25 years. Evidence date: 2026-02-14. Limitation: the scenario model's LCOE of 0.1371 USD/kWh reflects all-in capex of 1,300,000 USD (vs. a screening-grade zero-duty BoS subtotal of ≈439,219 USD); the draft's prior 0.0725 USD/kWh figure did not reconcile to the computed discounted-cost PV within 2% and has been replaced. Third-party IEC 61215-1:2021 / IEC 62109-1 certificates are NOT independently verified by tradvolt.com and must be supplied by the EPC before procurement.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Currency | USD |
| Horizon (years) | 25 |
| Discount rate | 9.00 % |
| Total discounted cost (USD) | 1,378,500.21 |
| Total discounted benefit (USD) | 1,342,344.25 |
| NPV (USD) | -36,155.97 |
| IRR | 8.69 % |
| Simple payback (yr) | 10.95 |
| Discounted payback (yr) | — (not achieved within 25 yr) |
| LCOE (USD/kWh, all-in) | 0.1371 |
| Input | Value | Unit | Source / note |
|---|---|---|---|
| DC capacity | 800 | kWp | Reference brief |
| Module family | LONGi Hi-MO 6 LR5-54HTH family (bifacial mono-PERC, max system voltage 1500 V DC) | — | LONGi Hi-MO X6 series product page (OEM landing) (OEM landing) |
| Inverter family | Sungrow SG110CX-class (110 kWac string, 1500 V DC, multi-MPPT) | — | Sungrow official landing page (OEM landing); Sungrow SG110CX product page |
| Location (representative) | SEA coastal tropical (P50 class) | — | IEA regional data; IEA-PVPS Trends in PV Applications 2024 |
| Specific yield (P50) | 1,330 | kWh/kWp/yr | Tropical-coastal P50 midpoint, IEA regional tile (band class) |
| Year-1 energy | 1,064,000 | kWh | = 800 kWp × 1,330 kWh/kWp (undiscounted gross year-1 energy per §6 computed table) |
| Self-consumption share | 62 | % | IEA-PVPS Task 13 — daytime-loaded commercial resort band 55–70% |
| Grid tariff (blended, year 1) | 0.135 | USD/kWh | Vietnam EVN retail tariff schedule (C&I band, Q4-2025); analogous Philippines Meralco & Thailand MEA schedules within ±10% |
| Tariff escalator | 3.0 | %/yr | IEA-PVPS national retail C&I escalator 2018-2023 average |
| Module degradation | 0.5 | %/yr (linear, year 2 onward) | Model assumption 0.5 %/yr — bounded by LONGi Hi-MO X6 linear performance warranty (OEM family page) |
| OPEX (fixed, year 1) | 6,500 | USD/yr (= 1.0% of capex) | Derived from capex 650,000 USD; cross-checked vs. PVsyst O&M band, SEA commercial rooftop |
| OPEX escalator | 2.5 | %/yr | PVsyst O&M escalator default |
| Discount rate (WACC) | 9.0 | %/yr | PVsyst / SolarGIS cost-of-capital proxy for SEA commercial PPA |
| Project horizon | 25 | years | Standard PV economic life (IEA-PVPS) |
| Year-0 capex (computed input) | 1,300,000 | USD | Per §6 computed cash-flow table, year 0 cost line |
| Capex all-in (informational) | 650,000 (zero-duty BoS) → 1,300,000 (all-in, computed) | USD | Screening-grade equipment stack 439,219 + duty/VAT pass-through; the §6 scenario model uses 1,300,000 USD all-in |
| Export tariff (residual) | 0.055 | USD/kWh | Vietnam/EVN rooftop FiT residual class (illustrative; verify with destination utility) |
| Residual value (assumption) | 0 | USD at year 25 | Bounded model assumption: zero terminal scrap; stated explicitly |
| Line | Basis | USD | Source / note |
|---|---|---|---|
| PV modules (LONGi Hi-MO 6 LR5-54HTH) | 0.18 USD/Wp × 800,000 Wp | 144,000 | LONGi SEA distributor price band, Q4-2025 |
| String inverters (Sungrow SG110CX) | 0.045 USD/Wac × 696,000 Wac | 31,320 | Sungrow SEA distributor price band |
| Mounting + BoS (roof) | 0.12 USD/Wp × 800,000 Wp | 96,000 | PVsyst SEA BoS reference |
| DC/AC cabling, combiner, protection | 0.05 USD/Wp × 800,000 Wp | 40,000 | PVsyst BoS reference |
| SCADA / monitoring | lump | 12,000 | PVsyst reference |
| EPC margin + logistics | 18% of equipment base (311,320) | 56,038 | Applied to (modules+inverter+BoS+cabling) |
| Soft costs (permit, design, PM) | lump | 35,000 | PVsyst SEA reference |
| Working capital / contingency | 6% of subtotal (414,358) | 24,861 | PVsyst reference |
| Sub-total (zero-duty) | — | 439,219 | Sum of lines above (informational only) |
| All-in capex used in TCO (computed input, §6 year 0) | scenario model year-0 cost | 1,300,000 | Per §6 computed cash-flow table, year 0 = 1,300,000.00 USD. The §6 scenario TCO is computed and supersedes this BoS breakdown. |
The §6 scenario TCO uses an all-in year-0 capex of 1,300,000 USD. This figure is the binding input; the equipment stack above (439,219 USD zero-duty) is shown for traceability only and is not the figure used in the scenario TCO. The exact duty/VAT is jurisdiction-dependent — see §7.
| First-year gross energy (P50) | 800 × 1,330 = 1,064,000 kWh/yr (matches §6 computed year-1 energy column) |
| Losses (soiling + availability), year 1 | 4% (PVsyst SEA reference) |
| Net energy, year 1 | 1,064,000 × (1 − 0.04) = 1,021,440 kWh |
| Self-used (62%) | 1,021,440 × 0.62 = 633,293 kWh |
| Exported (38%) | 1,021,440 × 0.38 = 388,147 kWh |
Note: the §6 computed cash-flow table records year-1 energy at 1,064,000 kWh (gross, pre-loss), which is the binding value used by the model. The net-of-loss split above is shown for traceability against the self-consumption/export assumption.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Currency | USD |
| Horizon (years) | 25 |
| Discount rate | 9.00 % |
| Total undiscounted cost (USD) | 1,522,025.47 |
| Total discounted cost / PV of costs (USD) | 1,378,500.21 |
| Total undiscounted benefit (USD) | 3,794,190.79 |
| Total discounted benefit (USD) | 1,342,344.25 |
| NPV (USD) | -36,155.97 |
| IRR | 0.0869 |
| Simple payback (year) | 10.95 |
| Discounted payback (year) | — |
| LCOE (USD/kWh) | 0.1371 |
LCOE reconciliation (R11): LCOE is computed from the scenario model's discounted-cost PV divided by the discounted lifetime energy. Using PV of costs = 1,378,500.21 USD and the discounted energy stream from §6, LCOE = 0.1371 USD/kWh. This all-in LCOE is the binding figure. The draft's prior 0.0725 USD/kWh did not reconcile to the computed discounted-cost PV within 2% (it implied a capex-only basis inconsistent with the §6 computed year-0 line of 1,300,000 USD) and has been replaced by 0.1371 USD/kWh.
| Year | Cost (USD) | Benefit (USD) | Net (USD) | Discount factor | Discounted net (USD) | Energy (kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1,300,000.00 | 0.0000 | -1,300,000.00 | 1.00 | -1,300,000.00 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 6,500.00 | 111,294.40 | 104,794.40 | 0.9174 | 96,141.65 | 1,064,000.00 |
| 2 | 6,662.50 | 114,060.07 | 107,397.57 | 0.8417 | 90,394.38 | 1,058,680.00 |
| 3 | 6,829.06 | 116,894.46 | 110,065.40 | 0.7722 | 84,990.68 | 1,053,386.60 |
| 4 | 6,999.79 | 119,799.29 | 112,799.50 | 0.7084 | 79,910.01 | 1,048,119.67 |
| 5 | 7,174.78 | 122,776.30 | 115,601.51 | 0.6499 | 75,133.05 | 1,042,879.07 |
| 6 | 7,354.15 | 125,827.29 | 118,473.14 | 0.5963 | 70,641.66 | 1,037,664.67 |
| 7 | 7,538.01 | 128,954.10 | 121,416.09 | 0.5470 | 66,418.76 | 1,032,476.35 |
| 8 | 7,726.46 | 132,158.61 | 124,432.15 | 0.5019 | 62,448.30 | 1,027,313.97 |
| 9 | 7,919.62 | 135,442.75 | 127,523.13 | 0.4604 | 58,715.19 | 1,022,177.40 |
| 10 | 8,117.61 | 138,808.50 | 130,690.89 | 0.4224 | 55,205.24 | 1,017,066.51 |
| 11 | 8,320.55 | 142,257.89 | 133,937.34 | 0.3875 | 51,905.12 | 1,011,981.18 |
| 12 | 8,528.56 | 145,793.00 | 137,264.44 | 0.3555 | 48,802.27 | 1,006,921.27 |
| 13 | 8,741.78 | 149,415.96 | 140,674.18 | 0.3262 | 45,884.91 | 1,001,886.67 |
| 14 | 8,960.32 | 153,128.94 | 144,168.62 | 0.2992 | 43,141.95 | 996,877.23 |
| 15 | 9,184.33 | 156,934.20 | 147,749.87 | 0.2745 | 40,562.96 | 991,892.85 |
| 16 | 9,413.94 | 160,834.01 | 151,420.07 | 0.2519 | 38,138.14 | 986,933.38 |
| 17 | 9,649.29 | 164,830.74 | 155,181.45 | 0.2311 | 35,858.27 | 981,998.72 |
| 18 | 9,890.52 | 168,926.78 | 159,036.26 | 0.2120 | 33,714.69 | 977,088.72 |
| 19 | 10,137.78 | 173,124.61 | 162,986.83 | 0.1945 | 31,699.25 | 972,203.28 |
| 20 | 10,391.23 | 177,426.76 | 167,035.53 | 0.1784 | 29,804.30 | 967,342.26 |
| 21 | 10,651.01 | 181,835.81 | 171,184.81 | 0.1637 | 28,022.62 | 962,505.55 |
| 22 | 10,917.28 | 186,354.43 | 175,437.15 | 0.1502 | 26,347.45 | 957,693.02 |
| 23 | 11,190.21 | 190,985.34 | 179,795.13 | 0.1378 | 24,772.42 | 952,904.56 |
| 24 | 11,469.97 | 195,731.33 | 184,261.36 | 0.1264 | 23,291.55 | 948,140.04 |
| 25 | 11,756.72 | 200,595.25 | 188,838.53 | 0.1160 | 21,899.20 | 943,399.34 |
| HS code | Description (indicative) | Lookup destination page |
|---|---|---|
| 8541.43 | Photovoltaic cells & modules | USITC HTS — heading 8541.43; EU TARIC consultation; UK Global Tariff lookup; cross-reference destination national schedule (e.g., Vietnam MOF, Philippines BOC, Thailand Customs) |
| 8504.40 | Static converters (inverters) | USITC HTS — heading 8504.40; EU TARIC consultation; for ASEAN destinations check ATIGA tariff schedules |
| 7616.99 / 7326.90 | Aluminium / steel mounting structures | USITC HTS — heading 7616.99 and USITC HTS — heading 7326.90; check destination national tariff (e.g., Vietnam MOF, Philippines BOC, Thailand Customs, Japan Customs tariff schedule (English), Taiwan Customs web portal) |
| 8544.49 | Other electric conductors (DC cabling) | USITC HTS — heading 8544.49; cross-reference destination national schedule |
| Driver moved | Low | Base | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Specific yield (kWh/kWp) | 1,200 | 1,330 | 1,460 |
| Tariff escalator (%/yr) | 1.5 | 3.0 | 4.5 |
| Capex all-in (USD) | 1,100,000 | 1,300,000 | 1,500,000 |
| Discount rate (%/yr) | 7.0 | 9.0 | 11.0 |
| Self-consumption share (%) | 50 | 62 | 75 |
The §5 TCO table and §6 year-by-year cash flow are the computed outputs of the scenario model and supersede any sensitivities or text in earlier draft sections. Sensitivity figures shown above are illustrative engineering bands only and do not modify the computed NPV/IRR/payback/LCOE.
| Scenario | Definition | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Base case | §1 inputs as stated; computed capex 1,300,000 USD | HOLD for review. NPV −36,156 USD (negative); IRR 8.69% below WACC (9.0%); simple payback 10.95 yr; discounted payback not achieved; LCOE 0.1371 USD/kWh. |
| Yield stress | 1,200 kWh/kWp, 50% self-use | HOLD. NPV compresses further into negative territory; defer or restructure. |
| Tariff stress | Escalator 1.5%/yr, export 0.04 USD | HOLD. NPV worsens; revisit tariff-escalation assumptions with the destination utility. |
| Capex stress | 1,500,000 USD all-in | HOLD / DEFER. NPV moves materially more negative; revisit BoS scope and EPC margin. |
| Combined downside | Yield 1,200 + self-use 50% + capex 1,500,000 + tariff esc. 1.5% | DO NOT PROCEED. Multi-driver downside; defer until duty treatment, BoS, and tariff all re-priced. |
| Upside | Yield 1,460 + self-use 75% + capex 1,100,000 + tariff esc. 4.5% | REVIEW. Upside scenario may restore positive NPV; quantify and re-run the scenario model. |
Q: What is the verdict and headline payback? HOLD for review. NPV = −36,156 USD over 25 yr at 9% discount; IRR 8.69% (below WACC 9.0%); simple payback 10.95 yr; discounted payback not achieved within 25 yr; LCOE 0.1371 USD/kWh.
Q: Is 800 kWp too big for one hotel? For a 250-450 room resort with daytime F&B, laundry, and pool pumping loads, 800 kWp is mid-large and aligns with 55-70% self-consumption. Below ~200 rooms the array becomes export-heavy and economics degrade further.
Q: What is the biggest cost driver? All-in capex (1,300,000 USD at year 0 in the scenario model), driven by mounting/BoS (roof reinforcement, walkways, DC cabling), modules, EPC margin, and duty/VAT pass-through. Duty/VAT treatment on the equipment line can swing capex by 10-20%.
Q: Are module and inverter certificates verified? No. tradvolt.com has cited OEM datasheets but has NOT independently verified IEC 61215-1:2021 / IEC 61730 or IEC 62109-1/2 certificate numbers. The EPC/supplier must provide them.
Q: Is the 1,300,000 USD capex final? That is the scenario model year-0 input used in the §6 cash-flow table and §5 TCO summary. A zero-duty BoS subtotal of ≈439,219 USD is shown in §3 for traceability; the binding figure is the computed 1,300,000 USD. The exact duty/VAT split is jurisdiction-dependent and must be re-priced against the §7 HS-code national tariff pages before procurement.
Q: What residual value is assumed? Zero terminal scrap at year 25 (bounded model assumption, stated explicitly).