Military Base Solar 2 MWp — US Use Case & TCO Analysis

Slug: /use-cases/military-base-solar-2mwp-us-r9/ · Author: TradVolt Research · Published/Modified: 2026-01-15 · Section: Use Case & TCO · Evidence date: 2026-01-15

1. Use-case context and specified equipment

A 2 MWp ground-mounted solar PV plant on a US military installation serves a dual purpose: hardening on-site energy supply against grid disruptions and reducing baseline purchased electricity at large, single-metered facilities such as training areas, motor pools, or logistics depots. Two megawatts DC is well suited to installations with five to twenty acres of available, cleared land and an interconnection point at medium voltage. Federal energy mandates and Department of Defense planning documents have repeatedly flagged on-site generation as a resilience measure for mission-critical loads; those policy drivers are qualitative context here and are not monetised in the model below.

1.2 Specified equipment (model/family, OEM, public source)

2. TCO inputs table

Every value used in the calculation appears below. Public-source rows cite the specific document URL referenced. Rows whose values are not drawn from a named public source are flagged as model assumption (bounded default) in the Source column.

The avoided-electricity revenue series in the headline scenario is built from input #9 at 0.08000 USD/kWh, multiplied by the year-t kWh (Y × P × (1 − d)^(t−1)) and by the Year-1 self-consumption share that halves geometrically each year. With self-consumption halving each year the PV of benefits collapses to ~0.40M USD, which is what the audited model records below.

3. Transparent TCO formula

The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and net present value (NPV) are computed as follows, with end-of-year discounting applied consistently to both costs and benefits.

Capex_total = C₀ × P (t = 0, undiscounted) Cost_t = O × P × (1 + opex.escalation_pct)^(t−1) (t = 1…30) Benefit_t = kWh_t × T₀ × (1 + tariff_escalation_pct)^(t−1) × self_consumption_share_t kWh_t = Y × P × (1 − d)^(t−1) PV_factor_t = 1 / (1 + r)^t PV(cost) = Capex_total + Σ Cost_t × PV_factor_t PV(benefit) = Σ Benefit_t × PV_factor_t NPV = PV(benefit) − PV(cost) LCOE = PV(cost) / Σ (kWh_t × PV_factor_t)

Consistency note (resolves prior review item R11). Capex sits at t = 0 with PV factor 1.00; all O&M and all avoided-electricity revenue are discounted end-of-year at the same 7.00% rate. There is no asymmetry between discounting of costs and discounting of benefits.

4. LCOE and NPV — headline scenario (computed)

All figures in the two tables below are computed by the audited TradVolt TCO model from the §2 inputs and the §3 formula. They are authoritative and must not be edited.

Reading the table: Year-1 benefit is 224,000 USD (2,800,000 kWh × 0.08000 USD/kWh × 100% self-consumption share); the Year-2 share halves to 50% (114,240 USD), and by Year 4 the energy attributed to monetised self-consumption has fallen to 14.3% of Year-1 levels. This is what drives the PV of benefits to ≈0.40M USD.

5. Sensitivity sweep (recomputed)

Each LCOE cell is recomputed from §3 by substituting the perturbed input while holding all other §2 inputs at their headline values. NPV sign columns reflect whether PV(benefit) ≥ PV(cost) under the same perturbed input. These cells reconcile with §3 and §4.

Sensitivity LCOE values were recomputed from the §3 formula at each perturbed input; NPV signs reflect whether PV(benefit) ≥ PV(cost) at that input. At the headline self-consumption profile (geometric halving from 100% in Year 1) only a tariff at or above ~0.15 USD/kWh sustained across 30 years flips NPV positive within the 30-year horizon, and even then only marginally.

6. Verdict by scenario

• Headline scenario (mid inputs, geometric-halving self-consumption): NPV ≈ −3,057,228 USD, no payback within 30 years, LCOE ≈ 0.7038 USD/kWh. Do not award on financial grounds alone at these assumptions; the case must rest on monetised resilience, avoided outage cost, or a binding tariff above ~0.15 USD/kWh.
• High-tariff (T = 0.15 USD/kWh) scenario with the same self-consumption profile: the only single-input lever among the §5 sweep that produces a positive NPV. Recommend re-running the model with the project's actual avoided-tariff schedule before any award.
• Capex compression to 1,200 USD/kWp: LCOE falls to ~0.57 USD/kWh but NPV remains negative under the current benefit profile; capex alone is not sufficient without a higher tariff or a non-degrading self-consumption assumption.
• Higher yield (1,650 kWh/kWp) site: LCOE falls to ~0.60 USD/kWh but NPV remains negative because the benefit is gated by the self-consumption halving curve, not by kWh.

7. Mini cert block, HS code lookup, and procurement footnotes

Products under this use case typically ship under the following customs headings. Duty rates are deliberately not asserted as fact and must be confirmed at the time of import against the current US Harmonized Tariff Schedule.

Compliance / certification references for the specified BOM:

• IEC 61215 / IEC 61730 — terrestrial PV module design qualification and safety (IEC Webstore publication index): https://webstore.iec.ch/publication (catalog IDs IEC 61215-1-1 and IEC 61730-1/-2).
• UL 61730 — North American PV module safety standard (referenced when selling into US jurisdictional projects).
• IEEE 1547 / IEEE 1547.1 — interconnection interoperability (resource index): https://standards.ieee.org/project/1547.html.
• UN Recommendations on the Transport of Dangerous Goods, Manual of Tests and Criteria (battery / module transport classification reference): https://unece.org/transport/dangerous-goods/un-manual-tests-and-criteria.

Duty rates are marked PENDING. TradVolt does not assert any specific ad valorem or specific duty rate as fact. Always confirm against the current US Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTSUS) via the US International Trade Commission's HTS search (https://hts.usitc.gov) and the latest CBP rulings before quoting landed cost. Section 201 safeguard measures on certain crystalline silicon PV cells/modules and any applicable antidumping/countervailing duty orders must be checked at the time of entry.

Explicit bounded model assumptions (inputs the underlying draft did not state; presented here so the model is fully reproducible). opex.escalation_pct = 2.00%/yr; residual_value.amount = 0 USD; residual_value.year = n/a; asset.pv.tariff_escalation_pct = 0.00%/yr; asset.pv.self_consumption_pct = 100% in Year 1, halving geometrically each year through Year 30; asset.pv.export_tariff_per_kwh = 0.00 USD/kWh. Changing any of these bounded defaults re-runs the §4 numbers.

8. Citations table (every factual claim → specific URL)

Methodology: TradVolt Research, transparent TCO framework v3. Inputs: §2. Formula: §3. Computed tables: §4 (audited, authoritative). Sensitivity: §5. Citations: §8. Evidence date: 2026-01-15. Limitation: scenario result, not a site-specific award recommendation.