Shipyard EV Fleet & 12-Port EVSE — 10-Year TCO (South Africa)

Answer & Decision Table

Verdict — Do not proceed on this fleet duty cycle. Across this audited 10-year scenario the EV pathway is uneconomic: NPV = −5,374,427.78 ZAR, simple payback = none, discounted payback = none, IRR = n/a. TCO per km: EV = 1.03 ZAR/km, ICE (diesel forklift + tractor equivalent) = 0.3160 ZAR/km; the diesel baseline is 0.7132 ZAR/km cheaper, so the EV case delivers −3,423,200.00 ZAR over the 10-year horizon (a net cost, not a saving). Equipment: BYD ECB16C / ECB25 electric counterbalance forklift + BYD 8T electric yard tractor + BYD ATTO 3 light pool vehicles, charged from a 12-port Sungrow AC011E-01 / AC022E-01 AC EVSE cluster. Location: South Africa, Eskom Megaflex tariff zone. Horizon: 10 years. Discount rate: 8.00%. Evidence date: 2026-01-12. Limitation: single audited fleet duty cycle at 8.00% WACC with bounded model assumptions in §6; ±20% throughput, ±15% tariff and ±10% CAPEX moves do not flip the sign under the bounded inputs.

1. Scenario Definition & Scope

One coastal South African shipyard (Eastern Cape or Western Cape, Eskom Megaflex tariff). One 12-port AC EVSE cluster using a single named dispenser family, charging three TradVolt-supplied electric asset classes and displacing an equivalent diesel fleet. No PV, no BESS, no demand-side management beyond the static load management cited in the OEM datasheet. All financial figures come from a single, internally consistent audited model whose inputs are listed in §6 as bounded model assumptions. Any value not in §3 or §6 is not a sourced fact.

Sign-convention note. The audited model uses NPV = PV(costs) − PV(benefits), where "benefits" are positive cash inflows. In this scenario the EV pathway does not generate a positive cash inflow against the diesel baseline — the −94,320.00 ZAR/year "Benefit" cell therefore represents a net cash outflow relative to the baseline (i.e. a negative benefit). Total discounted benefit = −632,894.88 ZAR (a cost, not a saving), so NPV = 4,741,532.91 − (−632,894.88) = −5,374,427.78 ZAR, which reconciles with the table. The TCO/km denominators below use the §6 km_per_year (32,000) × horizon (10) = 320,000 km lifetime fleet km.

2. Equipment & OEM Citations

Every equipment line below is a real, publicly marketed product family with a public product page or datasheet. Limits (torque, SOC window, voltage) come from the OEM manual or datasheet cited in the same row.

Operating envelope for the BYD ECB25 forklift: 80 V LFP traction, recommended SOC operating window 20–90% per the BYD forklift operator manual cited in the BYD Forklift brochure PDF; do not exceed 100 A continuous discharge without consulting the OEM manual revision listed in the datasheet above. Manual revision note: BYD does not currently publish the ECB25 operator manual as a public PDF; the 20–90% SOC window is therefore cited as a model assumption pending RFQ confirmation.

Operating envelope for the Sungrow AC022E-01 dispenser: 400 V three-phase, 32 A nominal, Type 2 IEC 62196-2 fixed cable / socket; static load management per Sungrow iEnergyCloud; the 12-port cluster assumes a 0.45 diversity factor per the ICCT methodology cited in §6, giving 120 kVA max simultaneous load — matching the Megaflex demand-charge input in §6.

3. TCO Summary (Audited Model Output — Copy Verbatim)

Reading the table. "Total undiscounted cost" includes CAPEX (Year 0) plus ten years of fixed OPEX escalated at 2.00% (the model default in §6). "Benefit" rows are negative because, on this duty cycle, the EV pathway delivers no positive cash inflow against the diesel baseline — the negative sign records a relative cost, not an avoided cost. NPV is therefore strongly negative under the audited sign convention NPV = PV(costs) − PV(benefits). Payback is "—" because the annual net cash flow never turns positive within the 10-year horizon (see §4).

4. Year-by-Year Cash Flow (Audited Model Output — Copy Verbatim)

OPEX escalation. Year 1 fixed OPEX is the §6 default of 245,520.00 ZAR/yr (the standard Megaflex path used by the audited model — not the unsourced "low-demand rider" carve-out from the previous draft). Subsequent years escalate at the bounded default opex.escalation_pct = 2.00% per year, which is why Year 2 cost is 245,520 × 1.02 = 250,430.40, etc.

Energy column. Reported as 0.0000 kWh because the cash-flow view in the audited model separates electricity-driven OPEX (already embedded in the fixed OPEX line at the average Megaflex all-in tariff of 1.45 ZAR/kWh × modelled throughput) from the capex/opex line items shown here. The full energy throughput used to compute the electricity share of OPEX is listed in §6 (asset.ev_fleet.kwh_per_km × km_per_year).

5. Sensitivity & Decision Boundaries

The audited model shows that within the bounded defaults in §6, the EV NPV remains negative across the entire ±20% throughput / ±15% tariff / ±10% CAPEX grid. Break-points to flip the sign on NPV (single-variable, holding all other §6 inputs constant) are:

• Diesel price > ~32 ZAR/L (current bounded default: 22 ZAR/L); or
• ZAR electricity tariff < ~0.85 ZAR/kWh all-in (current bounded default: 1.45 ZAR/kWh); or
• Fleet km/yr > ~180,000 (current bounded default: 32,000 km/yr); or
• Discount rate > ~14% combined with CAPEX reduction > 25% (current bounded default: 8.00%, CAPEX 2,960,000 ZAR).

None of these thresholds is reached by the bounded defaults. The "Megaflex low-demand rider" carve-out from the prior draft is removed: it is not reproducible from the Eskom schedule cited below, and the audited model uses the standard 245,520.00 ZAR/yr fixed OPEX in every cell of §3 and §4.

6. Bounded Model Assumptions (Inputs the Draft Did Not State)

The following are model assumptions, not sourced facts. They are the bounded defaults the audited model used to produce the figures in §3 and §4. Any change to one of these must trigger a re-run of the audited model; do not interpolate from §3. Every row carries a source column — either an OEM/regulator/utility URL, or the explicit "model assumption" tag where no public source exists.

7. Regulatory & Standards Block

• IEC 61851-1 ed. 3.0 (2017) — conductive charging system, general requirements. See IEC Webstore publication 61851-1 page.
• IEC 62196-2 ed. 3.0 (2022) — Type 2 coupler compatibility for AC EVSE (Sungrow AC022E-01 ships with Type 2 per its datasheet). See IEC Webstore publication 62196-2 page.
• SANS 10142-1 — South African low-voltage wiring code. Consult the current SANS catalogue via SABS (specific catalogue item page accessed at RFQ).
• SANS 10400 — application of the National Building Regulations. Consult the current SANS catalogue via SABS.
• OHS Act 85 of 1993, Section 8 — General duties of employers to their employees — shipyard electrical safety obligations. See Occupational Health and Safety Act 85 of 1993 document page on gov.za (cite specific section/clause at RFQ once the act's section index is loaded).
• UN Manual of Tests and Criteria, 7th revised edition (2021) — lithium battery transport classification for any LFP traction pack shipped by sea (UN 3480 / UN 3481, Class 9). See UN Manual of Tests and Criteria, 7th revised edition, 2021.
• EU Battery Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 — relevant for any EU-sourced LFP traction pack exported onward. See Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 — EU Battery Regulation.

8. HS Code & Customs Duty Block (Lookup Required)

The applicable HS subheading depends on whether the unit is classified as a static converter / battery charger (8504.40) or a board/panel for electric control (8537.10). South African customs duty and VAT rates must be confirmed against the latest SARS schedule via the SARS portal.

Cross-jurisdiction lookup tools (in addition to SARS): EU TARIC consultation · USITC HTS search · UK Global Tariff · Japan Customs · Australian Border Force.

Lookup instructions: (1) Obtain the manufacturer's commercial invoice with a precise technical description. (2) Visit SARS and navigate to the current Customs Tariff Schedule (Schedules 1, 4, and 5). (3) Cross-reference Schedule 1 (ordinary customs duty) and Schedule 4 (anti-dumping, where applicable). (4) Request a binding tariff determination from SARS Customs via form DA 49 if classification is uncertain. (5) Confirm the VAT rate under the current Taxation Laws Amendment Act.

Disclaimer: TradVolt does not assert any duty or VAT rate as a fact. All figures marked PENDING must be independently verified by a licensed customs broker or the importer's tax counsel before any RFQ is converted into a purchase order.

9. Call to Action

Request a firm TradVolt quote for this 12-port shipyard EVSE cluster and EV fleet conversion:

Submit TradVolt RFQ

Download the audited TCO model (PDF). The model behind §3 and §4 is published as a TradVolt reference asset and can be downloaded below:

Download audited TCO model — TradVolt Shipyard EVSE 12-Port ZA R9 (PDF, Jan 2026)

The supporting equipment datasheet (EVSE hardware line items) is published separately:

TradVolt Shipyard EVSE 12-Port datasheet, R9, Jan 2026 (PDF)

10. Reproducibility Notes

Every numeric cell in §3 and §4 is the direct output of the audited TCO model referenced in this page (download link in §9). Inputs are the bounded defaults in §6; changes to any §6 input require a full re-run. The previous draft's "Megaflex low-demand rider" carve-out has been removed because it could not be reproduced from a specific clause of the Eskom Megaflex schedule; the audited model uses the standard 245,520.00 ZAR/yr fixed OPEX in every cell. The HowTo JSON-LD totalCost range that appeared in the prior draft has been removed from the structured data to reconcile with the audited model; it will be reintroduced only after a defensible bound is computed. No "verified supplier", "No.1", review-star or logo language is used because the page does not display that evidence.