Verdict (base case): NPV = −1,772,277.61 USD; simple payback = None; discounted payback = None; LCOS = 0.1980 USD/kWh. Do not proceed on standalone tariff arbitrage. Equipment family: LFP containerized battery energy storage system (BESS), 3 MWh / 3 MW AC nameplate. Location: US, investor-owned utility (IOU) service territory, medium-large university campus. Horizon: 15 years. Discount rate (WACC): 7.00%. Evidence date: 2026-09-22. Limitation: this verdict reflects the scenario in §6; revenue stacking (capacity, ancillary, resilience) is not modelled in the base case and is required for NPV > 0.
Metric
Value
Note
Equipment family
LFP containerized BESS, 3 MWh / 3 MW
Family identification; exact SKU and OEM manual title/revision confirmed at RFQ
Location
US, IOU service territory
—
Horizon
15 years
—
Discount rate (WACC)
7.00 %
Model assumption (bounded default)
Currency
USD
—
PV of costs
1,764,177.83 USD
computed (sum of discounted cost column in §6)
PV of benefits
-8,099.78 USD
computed (sum of discounted benefit column in §6)
NPV
-1,772,277.61 USD
computed; defined as PV(benefit) − PV(cost)
IRR
n/a
No sign change in annual net cash flows over horizon
Simple payback
—
None
Discounted payback
—
None
LCOS
0.1980 USD/kWh
computed
Decision
NO-GO on standalone tariff arbitrage
Revenue stacking required
NPV sign convention used on this page: NPV = PV(benefits) − PV(costs). In the scenario, benefits are net negative (round-trip losses plus modelled charge-cost and tariff effects exceed the working spread), so PV(benefits) is −8,099.78 USD and PV(costs) is 1,764,177.83 USD, giving NPV = −8,099.78 − 1,764,177.83 = −1,772,277.61 USD.
NREL, U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks, Q1 2024, NREL/TP-5C00-85332 — https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy24osti/85332.pdf, Tables 7–9 (EPC and developer overhead on battery equipment scope)
Model assumption (LFP utility BESS working value; not cited from a specific dated source)
OpEx escalation
2.0
% per year
Model assumption (consistent with cost column in §6)
Project lifetime
15
years
Model assumption
Discount rate (WACC, nominal, after-tax)
7.00
%
Model assumption (campus-infrastructure underwriting; replace with buyer's actual WACC)
Augmentation
none
—
Model assumption: nameplate retained; throughput declines with fade
Residual value (amount)
0.00
USD
Model assumption (bounded default) — not stated in draft; set to zero
Residual value (recognition year)
n/a
—
Model assumption (bounded default) — not stated in draft; set to n/a
Charge cost per kWh (asset.ess.charge_cost_per_kwh)
0.00
USD/kWh
Model assumption (bounded default) — not stated in draft; set to zero so net benefit lines reflect tariff savings only
Model-assumption inputs (residual_value.amount, residual_value.year, asset.ess.charge_cost_per_kwh, applied demand reduction kW, CFPP, PCS $/kW, demand charge, arbitrage spread, RTE, fade, OpEx escalation, WACC) are bounded defaults the draft did not state explicitly. They are required inputs to the scenario model; the resulting figures in §6 are SCENARIO OUTPUTS and were not recomputed in this revision.
2. Equipment family and OEM datasheet references
The 3 MWh / 3 MW BESS scope is populated by real, publicly marketed LFP containerized DC-block and central-PCS / MV-skid products. Datasheets are commonly JS-rendered and not directly linkable as stable static PDFs; OEM landing pages are the computed source for product naming, and the exact SKU, OEM manual title, and revision (SOC window, DC voltage, torque limits) are confirmed at RFQ. Specific certificate numbers and issuer URLs are recorded at RFQ intake; not yet certified as named on this page.
DC block family: CATL EnerC-class LFP containerized DC block (20-ft ISO container, LFP prismatic cells, liquid-cooled) — OEM landing: https://www.catl.com/en/ess/. Specific SKU, OEM manual title and revision, SOC window, DC voltage and torque limits: to be supplied with vendor proposal — not yet certified as named on this page.
Central PCS / MV skid family: Sungrow ST3440KWH-L-class central PCS with integrated MV transformer and LV panel — OEM landing: https://www.sungrowpower.com/en. Specific SKU, OEM manual title and revision: to be supplied with vendor proposal — not yet certified as named on this page.
For any SOC window, DC voltage or torque limits used in EPC layouts or commissioning, consult the OEM manual title and revision supplied with the vendor proposal. Such limits are vendor- and revision-specific and are not asserted on this page.
3. CapEx build
Line
Formula
Plug-in
Result (USD)
DC block (cells + module BoS)
CFPP × Energy
132 × 3,000
396,000
PCS / inverters
$/kW × Power
110 × 3,000
330,000
EPC + developer overhead
18% × (DC + PCS)
0.18 × (396,000 + 330,000)
130,680
Network / interconnection
one-time
250,000
250,000
Soft costs (permit, commissioning, financing fee)
one-time
120,000
120,000
Total CapEx (Year 0)
sum
396,000 + 330,000 + 130,680 + 250,000 + 120,000
1,226,680.00
4. Annual savings and OpEx build (descriptive)
Descriptive reconciliation only; the SCENARIO OUTPUTS numbers are in §6. Net annual benefit is small and negative in the scenario; OpEx dominates.
Line
Year-1 plug-in (USD)
Notes
Demand charge reduction (applied)
0
Aligned with computed benefit (applied demand reduction = 0)
Energy arbitrage (net of η and charge cost, in scenario)
≈ −995
computed benefit Year-1 = -995.45 USD (round-trip losses plus modelled tariff effects exceed working spread)
Fixed O&M
42,000
14 × 3,000
Variable O&M
657
0.60 × 1,095 MWh
Insurance adder (working)
9,813
0.8% × CapEx
Year-1 OpEx (computed)
52,470.00
Matches §6 cost row Year 1
5. Cash-flow formula (reference)
CF(n) = Benefit(n) − OpEx(n) − CapEx(n)
Throughput(n) = Energy × (1 − Fade)^n × 365
Benefit(n) = Spread × Throughput(n) × η (net of charge cost; tariff-driven savings line = 0 in this scenario; modelled net is negative)
OpEx(n) = Fixed_O&M × Power + Variable_O&M × Throughput(n) + Insurance × CapEx
Discount factor(n) = 1 / (1 + WACC)^n
Discounted net(n) = CF(n) × Discount factor(n)
NPV = Σ Discounted net(n) = PV(benefit) − PV(cost)
6. computed TCO tables (verbatim from the scenario model)
TCO summary
Metric
Value
Currency
USD
Horizon (years)
15
Discount rate
7.00 %
Total undiscounted cost (USD)
2,134,065.59
Total discounted cost / PV of costs (USD)
1,764,177.83
Total undiscounted benefit (USD)
-13,012.13
Total discounted benefit (USD)
-8,099.78
NPV (USD)
-1,772,277.61
IRR
n/a
Simple payback (year)
—
Discounted payback (year)
—
LCOS (USD/kWh)
0.1980
Year-by-year cash flow
Year
Cost (USD)
Benefit (USD)
Net (USD)
Discount factor
Discounted net (USD)
Energy (kWh)
0
1,226,680.00
0.0000
-1,226,680.00
1.00
-1,226,680.00
0.0000
1
52,470.00
-995.45
-53,465.45
0.9346
-49,967.71
1,095,000.00
2
53,519.40
-975.55
-54,494.95
0.8734
-47,598.00
1,073,100.00
3
54,589.79
-956.03
-55,545.82
0.8163
-45,341.94
1,051,638.00
4
55,681.58
-936.91
-56,618.50
0.7629
-43,193.98
1,030,605.24
5
56,795.22
-918.18
-57,713.39
0.7130
-41,148.85
1,009,993.14
6
57,931.12
-899.81
-58,830.93
0.6663
-39,201.53
989,793.27
7
59,089.74
-881.82
-59,971.56
0.6227
-37,347.27
969,997.41
8
60,271.54
-864.18
-61,135.72
0.5820
-35,581.54
950,597.46
9
61,476.97
-846.90
-62,323.86
0.5439
-33,900.05
931,585.51
10
62,706.51
-829.96
-63,536.47
0.5083
-32,298.72
912,953.80
11
63,960.64
-813.36
-64,774.00
0.4751
-30,773.66
894,694.72
12
65,239.85
-797.09
-66,036.94
0.4440
-29,321.19
876,800.83
13
66,544.65
-781.15
-67,325.80
0.4150
-27,937.81
859,264.81
14
67,875.54
-765.53
-68,641.07
0.3878
-26,620.19
842,079.52
15
69,233.05
-750.22
-69,983.27
0.3624
-25,365.16
825,237.93
Reading the cash-flow table: the project never generates a positive annual net cash flow. Costs rise 2.0%/yr (OpEx escalation consistent with §1) while computed benefits remain small and negative; the cumulative discounted position worsens every year. There is no payback year.
7. Sensitivity (directional)
Driver
Base value
Direction for NPV improvement
Effect on verdict
Demand charge ($/kW-mo)
22
Higher required to clear NPV > 0
At $22/kW-mo with computed benefits, NPV still negative
Discount rate (WACC)
7.00%
Lower WACC helps marginally
NPV remains negative across plausible range
Capacity fade
2.0%/yr
Lower fade extends throughput
Throughput gains do not overcome CapEx in this scenario
Possibly NPV-positive; must be recomputed with buyer-specific tariff
S3 — Stacked revenue
Base case + capacity market + ancillary services + resilience value
Potentially NPV-positive once stacking is monetized
S4 — Resilient / microgrid overlay
Avoided-outage value attributed
Potentially NPV-positive if campus assigns $/kWh to outage risk
9. Compliance & standards block (lookups, not certificates)
Item
Status at article date
Standard / publication (full standard number + edition + year + issuer)
UL 9540 (system)
Not yet certified as named on this page — issuer, certificate number and URL recorded at RFQ intake
UL 9540, Standard for Energy Storage Systems and Equipment, Edition 3 (2023), UL Solutions — UL Standards catalogue page (search by standard number 9540)
UL 9540A (cell-level fire propagation)
Not yet certified as named on this page — issuer, certificate number and URL recorded at RFQ intake
UL 9540A, Test Method for Evaluating Thermal Runaway Fire Propagation, Edition 4 (2023), UL Solutions — UL Standards catalogue page (search by standard number 9540A)
UL 1973 (cells/modules)
Not yet certified as named on this page — issuer, certificate number and URL recorded at RFQ intake
UL 1973, Standard for Batteries for Use in Stationary and Vehicle Auxiliary Power Applications, Edition 3 (2022), UL Solutions — UL Standards catalogue page (search by standard number 1973)
IEEE 1547 interconnection
To be confirmed at utility interconnection stage
IEEE Std 1547-2018, IEEE Standard for Interconnection and Interoperability of Distributed Energy Resources with Associated Electric Power Systems Interfaces — https://standards.ieee.org/ieee/1547/5916/
IEC 62619 (secondary cells, industrial)
Not yet certified as named on this page — issuer, certificate number and URL recorded at RFQ intake
IEC 62619:2022, Secondary cells and batteries containing alkaline or other non-acid electrolytes — Safety requirements for secondary lithium cells and batteries for use in industrial applications, Edition 2 (2022), IEC — IEC Webstore (IEC 62619:2022)
USITC HTSUS, Chapter 85, heading 8504.40 — https://hts.usitc.gov/. Possible duty-free under certain subheadings; verify current schedule.
8537.10
Boards/panels/console for electric control (BESS control cabinet)
Verify current rate at filing
USITC HTSUS, Chapter 85, heading 8537 — https://hts.usitc.gov/. Duty depends on rated voltage and configuration.
11. Trade-compliance & cross-border references
Disclaimer: US import duty rates change. The rates above must be confirmed against the current USITC Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) before any customs filing. USITC HTSUS is the official, computed source. Nothing on this page constitutes customs or trade-compliance advice.
Dangerous goods (lithium batteries, air freight): IATA Dangerous Goods Regulations (DGR) programme — https://www.iata.org/en/programs/cargo/dgr/; UN Manual of Tests and Criteria §38.3 (link in §9).
RFQ:Submit your TradVolt RFQ. All RFQ submissions route through the TradVolt RFQ form. Datasheet packs (specific SKU, OEM manual title and revision, certificate issuer and number, torque/SOC/limits) are returned with the vendor proposal after RFQ intake.