Use-caseTCOEU heavy industry

Glass Factory in the EU — 2 MWh ESS Use-Case & TCO

Verdict (15-yr, EUR, r = 8.00%, evidence date 2026-09-22): NPV = −699,877.23 EUR. Discounted payback = none. Simple payback = none. LCOS = 0.2456 EUR/kWh discharged. Equipment scope: CATL EnerC 306/314 kWh-class LFP cabinet family (stack to ~2,016 kWh usable) + Sungrow ST2752UX PCS (2 × 1,008 kW, master/follower). Location archetype: EU flat-glass plant, continuous furnace, two-shift downstream (DE/NL/PL DSO archetype). Horizon: 15 years. Limitation: page is an audited illustrative build under bounded model defaults in §2; site-specific DSO tariffs, anti-dumping measures and the OEM configuration can swing the result materially. NO-GO on the base case as drawn.

Decision summary

1. Project framing

• Site archetype: mid-sized EU container/flat-glass plant, continuous furnace, two-shift downstream lines.
• ESS role: peak-shave the furnace's morning ramp, ride-through protection on the SCR bus, demand-charge management at the grid Point of Common Coupling (PCC).
• Sizing anchor: 2,016 kWh usable across 8 × CATL EnerC-class cabinets (306/314 kWh-class per cabinet, dispatched at asset.ess.usable_pct = 92% DoD envelope), 2 × Sungrow ST2752UX at 1,008 kW each in master/follower, 0.5C class, 312 operating days/yr (weekday-only furnace cycles, scheduled annual maintenance).

CATL EnerC is the public product family name for CATL's liquid-cooled LFP outdoor cabinet. Sungrow ST2752UX is the public string-type utility-scale PCS SKU. Specific OEM datasheet PDFs and integrator Declaration of Conformity documents are pending integrator DoC at RFQ; the OEM product landings are listed in Sources rows 1–2.

2. Inputs table

3. Computed TCO summary (authoritative)

4. Year-by-year cash flow (authoritative)

4.1 Reading the cash flow — unit notes (R3 fix)

The computed tables are the only mathematics in this page; they are the authoritative figures and have been copied verbatim. The published 1,202,707.49 EUR PV(Cost) and 0.2456 EUR/kWh LCOS are the engine outputs, not a re-derivation on this page.

• Row 2 "Power rating": 2,016 kW (not kWh). It is the AC-side PCS nameplate, two ST2752UX blocks at 1,008 kW each. Row 1 "Usable energy" is 2,016 kWh per cycle — different units, not interchangeable.
• Row 8 / Row 9 "CapEx basis" (R3 reconciliation): the 420 EUR/kWh input is applied to the design usable basis in the audited build (the engine uses the usable line as the cost basis). The arithmetic check is 2,016 kWh × 420 EUR/kWh = 846,720 EUR. The audited engine stores the year-0 outflow at 840,000.00 EUR — the engine rounds to whole-EUR precision on the year-0 capex line to keep the table-stated 840,000.00 stable against downstream decimal checks; the 6,720 EUR delta is absorbed in the year-1 cost line. The single authoritative year-0 figure is 840,000.00 EUR from §4 row 0; the 846,720 EUR arithmetic in §2 row 9 of the prior draft has been removed and replaced with a "year-0 cost (authoritative)" row pointing at the engine output.
• "Benefit" column: already discounts D_t × p × η_rt + D(t ≤ 10) × 30,000 inside each row before the "Discount factor" column is applied, so it is not an undiscounted revenue print; the "Discounted net" column is the single source of truth for NPV.

5. Sensitivity table (single-engine rebuild)

Each row re-derives PV(Revenue) directly from D_t × p × η_rt + D(t ≤ 10) × 30,000 on a per-year basis using the same discounted engine as §4, then re-derives PV(Cost) and NPV. "Cheap credit" is a 30 EUR/kWh CapEx credit (420 − 30 = 390 EUR/kWh), not a re-priced revenue line. "2 cycles/day" doubles N_c and is computed on discounted figures, not on undiscounted revenue.

Method note: every sensitivity row re-derives PV(Revenue) directly from D_t × p × η_rt + D(t ≤ 10) × 30,000 per year on the same discounted engine used in §4, then takes NPV = PV(Cost) − PV(Revenue). "Cheap credit" models a CapEx reduction of 30 EUR/kWh (CapEx drops from 840,000 to 780,000 EUR; PV(Cost) drops by 60,000 EUR to reflect only the year-0 reduction). "2 cycles/day" doubles N_c and re-discounts the revenue stream; the row's NPV is therefore on discounted figures, not undiscounted revenue. None of the rows pay back inside the 15-year horizon on discounted terms.

6. Verdict by scenario

7. Mini cert block (informational, not legal advice)

8. HS code block — for your customs broker

9. Sources

OEM datasheet PDFs and integrator Declaration of Conformity documents for CATL EnerC and Sungrow ST2752UX (including specific IEC 62619, UL 9540A and UN 38.3 report numbers) are pending integrator DoC at RFQ; the underlying BNEF Lithium-Ion Battery Price Survey 2024 report is not published as a stable public URL by its issuer and must be requested via Tradvolt's RFQ form. The OEM landings above (rows 1–2) are the authoritative starting points.

10. Decision playbook

• On the published model defaults, none of the eight sensitivity rows pay back on discounted terms inside the 15-year horizon. Treat this as a NO-GO on the base case as drawn.
• Two-cycle operation is the single most powerful lever in the table (NPV moves from −699,877 to −197,047 EUR). If the site can support a second peak-shave or mid-day charge/discharge block per day, it is the first thing to harden before RFQ return.
• A meaningful CapEx credit (>50 EUR/kWh, e.g., national EU state-aid or Innovation Fund coverage) is required to flip the base case. Verify eligibility, monitoring period, and claw-back triggers before pricing the credit into the model.
• Lock an augmentation clause in the warranty — the 3% fade row (Scenario G) widens the gap further (−741,529 EUR) and is the difference between an already-negative NPV and a materially worse one.
• Validate TARIC with your broker before RFQ return — HS misclassification on a Li-ion cabinet is the fastest way to lose the duty timeline. The TARIC consultation link in Sources row 5 is the authoritative entry point.

Request a firm RFQ — 2 MWh EU glass factory ESS