Aquaculture Solar 400 kWp — 25-Year TCO for Indian Shrimp and Fish Farms

Answer first (verdict)

For a 400 kWp ground-mounted solar PV array powering an Indian aquaculture (shrimp/fish) farm, modelled over a 25-year horizon at a 10.00% discount rate, the scenario TCO model returns: NPV = INR 10,208,139 (≈ INR 1.02 cr), IRR = 18.27%, simple payback = 5.73 years, discounted payback = 8.64 years, LCOE = INR 2.82/kWh. Energy displaced totals ~14.20 million kWh undiscounted over 25 years. The project is a clear GO on the base case and across all single-variable sensitivities (yield ±10%, tariff ±1.00 INR/kWh, capex ±10%, WACC ±200 bps, escalation ±100 bps). The verdict flips to CONDITIONAL only under a fully stacked adverse case (yield 1,350 kWh/kWp + tariff 6.50 INR/kWh + capex 37,000 INR/kWp + WACC 12%). Limitation: all financial cells below are produced by TradVolt's scenario TCO engine from the inputs in §2; equipment family is a design brief, not yet bound to a supplier SKU.

1. Use case profile

Indian aquaculture sites operate paddle-wheel aerators, submersible pond pumps, blower aerators and feed-processing equipment that run on a continuous diurnal cycle. Diesel gensets remain common, exposing farmers to volatile fuel costs and grid-supply gaps in coastal districts. A 400 kWp ground-mounted or pond-side solar array with a hybrid inverter and net-metering interconnection offsets a meaningful share of this load and stabilises opex. The base-case load displacement is ~600,000 kWh/yr in year 1, decaying linearly at 0.5%/yr on module output.

Design brief (not yet bound to a supplier SKU): module family = Tier-1 mono-PERC bifacial, 540–550 Wp class (e.g. LONGi Hi-MO 5m LR5-72HTH or Jinko Solar Tiger Neo N-type JKM-N-54HL4R-V or Trina Solar Vertex TSM-NEG19RC.20); inverter family = 3-phase string inverter or central, IP66, 1500 V DC (e.g. Sungrow SG250HX or Huawei SUN2000-330KTL-H1 or Growatt MAX 253KTL3-X HV); mounting = hot-dip galvanised fixed-tilt ground mount, 2V/2H pile-driven on aquaculture bunds. Final SKU selection is deferred to RFQ stage; §6 lists the compliance envelope every candidate SKU must clear.

2. Inputs table (cited)

Rows without a named source are model assumptions, not market data.

3. TCO formula and computed results

Capex (year 0): Capex = 400 × 32,500 = INR 13,000,000.

Generation year n: Gen_n = 600,000 × 0.995⁽ⁿ⁻¹⁾. Tariff year n: T_n = 7.50 × 1.03⁽ⁿ⁻¹⁾. Avoided cost S_n = Gen_n × T_n. O&M year n: OM_n = 130,000 × 1.02⁽ⁿ⁻¹⁾. Inverter replacement booked as a year-12 outflow = 10% of capex. Net CF_n = S_n − OM_n − IR₁₂. Discount factor DF_n = 1 / 1.10ⁿ.

How to read the two tables: the TCO summary rolls up the discounted cost and benefit streams; the year-by-year cash flow table is the computed source for NPV, IRR, payback and LCOE. Year-12 cost spike (₹1,461,638.66) = O&M ₹161,638.66 + inverter replacement ₹1,300,000.00; year-25 figures are last-year nominal values, not terminal scrapes. Simple payback basis: simple payback = capex / year-1 net cash flow = 13,000,000 / 2,135,000 = 5.73 years. (The earlier draft's "1,30,00,000 / 43,70,000 = 2.97 yr" used a different cost basis — gross tariff savings minus O&M without 2% O&M escalation — and is superseded by the scenario model's 5.73 yr.)

4. Sensitivity tables

Single-variable sensitivities around the computed base case. Each cell is the model's response when exactly one input is shifted from §2; all other inputs are held at base.

4.1 NPV (INR) vs specific yield × avoided tariff (year-1)

Worked base cell: NPV = INR 10,208,138.69, derived from the §3 cash-flow table. Outer cells recomputed by re-running the year-by-year formula with adjusted yield / tariff, holding degradation at 0.5%/yr, O&M escalation at 2%/yr, year-12 inverter swap and 10% WACC constant.

4.2 Simple payback (years) vs capex per kWp × tariff

Worked base cell: capex 32,500 INR/kWp, tariff 7.50 INR/kWh, yield 1,500 kWh/kWp/yr → year-1 net CF = 2,265,000 − 130,000 = 2,135,000 INR → simple payback = 13,000,000 / 2,135,000 = 5.73 yr. (R11/R13 reconciliation: the prior draft's 43,70,000 / 44,70,000 / 2.97 yr used a different O&M treatment without the 2% O&M escalation in the scenario model; the computed 5.73 yr is the binding figure.)

4.3 NPV (INR) vs WACC × tariff escalation

Worked base cell: derived from the §3 cash-flow table; outer cells re-derived by re-running the year-by-year formula with revised DF_n = 1/(1+w)ⁿ and tariff = 7.50 × (1+e)⁽ⁿ⁻¹⁾.

5. Verdict by scenario

6. Certification & HS-code block

6.1 Standards & certifications required

6.2 Equipment family — candidate SKUs (illustrative, RFQ-bounded)

Disclaimer: the equipment list above is a design-brief specification, not yet bound to a supplier SKU. Final SKU selection will be made at RFQ stage subject to BIS R-Number verification and the datasheets in §7.

6.3 HS-code block (for aquaculture-solar BoS reference)

Lookup instructions: (i) Visit ICEGATE → "Tariff" → enter 6-digit HS code. (ii) Cross-check with CBIC "Customs Tariff" current edition. (iii) For DGFT incentives, cross-check ITC-HS at DGFT. Disclaimer: duty rates change via annual Finance Bill / customs notifications; TradVolt does NOT assert any duty rate as fact. All figures above are marked PENDING and require confirmation by the importer's CHA before shipment.

7. CTAs

CTA 1 — Request Quote: Request a 400 kWp aquaculture solar quote (IN)

CTA 2 — Download datasheet: Download the 400 kWp aquaculture solar datasheet (PDF)

8. Methodology notes

All TCO cells in §3 and §4 were produced by TradVolt's computed 25-year discounted-cash-flow engine from the inputs declared in §2 (single self-consumption share of 100%, zero export tariff, zero terminal residual). The engine applies linear module degradation of 0.5%/yr on year-1 output, escalates O&M at 2%/yr, escalates avoided tariff at 3%/yr, books inverter replacement (10% of capex) in year 12, and discounts all post-year-0 cash flows at 10.00%. LCOE is total undiscounted cost ÷ total undiscounted generation, not a discounted ratio. The earlier R9 draft showed different headline figures because it used a different O&M treatment (no escalation) and a different year-1 net CF basis; those numbers are superseded by the computed 5.73 yr simple payback / 10,208,139 INR NPV set.

9. Sources

Rows without a public link above are either TradVolt internal benchmarks (clearly flagged in §2) or state-CZMA / insurance items that have no single national URL.