Use cases › Bakery Chain ESS 500 kWh · US
Verdict (scenario model, evidence date 2026-01-15): For a Sungrow ST4992UX-Pro per datasheet V1.1 dated 2023-12 (499 kWh / 250 kW liquid-cooled LFP cabinet) at one mid-size US commercial bakery plant, 10-year horizon, 8.00% WACC, illustrative EIA-baseline commercial tariff, the case is FAIL. NPV = −USD 307,653.07; simple payback = none; discounted payback = none; LCOS = USD 0.3965/kWh. Limit: tariff rows are EIA-average commercial components used as an illustrative baseline — substitute the actual utility tariff before procurement.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Equipment (modeled subject) | Sungrow ST4992UX-Pro — 499 kWh / 250 kW liquid-cooled LFP cabinet, datasheet V1.1 dated 2023-12 |
| Location / horizon | US commercial bakery / 10 years |
| NPV (USD) | -307,653.07 |
| Simple payback (year) | None |
| Discounted payback (year) | None |
| LCOS (USD/kWh) | 0.3965 |
| Verdict | FAIL |
| Evidence date | 2026-01-15 |
| Limitation | Tariff rows are EIA-average commercial components; substitute actual utility tariff before procurement. |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Currency | USD |
| Horizon (years) | 10 |
| Discount rate | 8.00 % |
| Total undiscounted cost (USD) | 407,486.04 |
| Total discounted cost / PV of costs (USD) | 388,094.85 |
| Total undiscounted benefit (USD) | 118,375.77 |
| Total discounted benefit (USD) | 80,441.78 |
| NPV (USD) | -307,653.07 |
| IRR | -0.2474 |
| Simple payback (year) | — |
| Discounted payback (year) | — |
| LCOS (USD/kWh) | 0.3965 |
| Parameter | Value | Bounded range / note |
|---|---|---|
| residual_value.amount | USD 0 | Bounded 0 – 10% of capex (battery cells at ~70–80% SoH at year 10 carry only scrap/second-life value; this run assumes 0). |
| residual_value.year | Year 10 (end of horizon) | Bounded 10 – 15. |
| asset.ess.cycles_per_year | 350 | Bounded 300 – 365; equals operating days, single full equivalent cycle per operating day. |
Tariff values (rows 9–11) are EIA-average commercial components used as an illustrative US baseline; a live project must substitute the actual utility tariff schedule. Rows without a NAMED citation are explicit design parameters, not measured values. Equipment identity: Sungrow ST4992UX-Pro (datasheet V1.1 dated 2023-12) — verify cabinet/inverter/BMS revision against the AHJ before procurement.
| Year | Cost (USD) | Benefit (USD) | Net (USD) | Discount factor | Discounted net (USD) | Energy (kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 350,000.00 | 0.0000 | -350,000.00 | 1.00 | -350,000.00 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 5,250.00 | 12,942.39 | 7,692.39 | 0.9259 | 7,122.58 | 157,500.00 |
| 2 | 5,355.00 | 12,683.54 | 7,328.54 | 0.8573 | 6,283.04 | 154,350.00 |
| 3 | 5,462.10 | 12,429.87 | 6,967.77 | 0.7938 | 5,531.24 | 151,263.00 |
| 4 | 5,571.34 | 12,181.28 | 6,609.93 | 0.7350 | 4,858.50 | 148,237.74 |
| 5 | 5,682.77 | 11,937.65 | 6,254.88 | 0.6806 | 4,256.97 | 145,272.99 |
| 6 | 5,796.42 | 11,698.90 | 5,902.47 | 0.6302 | 3,719.56 | 142,367.53 |
| 7 | 5,912.35 | 11,464.92 | 5,552.57 | 0.5835 | 3,239.87 | 139,520.17 |
| 8 | 6,030.60 | 11,235.62 | 5,205.02 | 0.5403 | 2,812.11 | 136,729.77 |
| 9 | 6,151.21 | 11,010.91 | 4,859.70 | 0.5002 | 2,431.06 | 133,995.18 |
| 10 | 6,274.24 | 10,790.69 | 4,516.45 | 0.4632 | 2,091.99 | 131,315.27 |
Energy column = annual throughput-adjusted usable kWh. Benefit column in the computed table nets demand-charge savings, TOU_net, and the throughput-loss drag inside a single auditable line. Net per year is in the USD 4.5k – USD 7.7k range across years 1–10. Negative NPV at the EIA-baseline tariff is driven by capex ($350k) exceeding the PV of benefits (~USD 80k) by a factor of ~4.4×. Demand-charge is the dominant savings line, but at the EIA-average ~$22/kW-mo it is not enough on its own.
| Lever | −20% | −10% | Base | +10% | +20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand charge ($/kW-mo) | 17.60 | 19.80 | 22.00 | 24.20 | 26.40 |
| → Demand savings/yr | $38,016 | $42,768 | $47,520 | $52,272 | $57,024 |
| → 10-yr PV of net benefits (approx) | ~$33k | ~$57k | ~$80k | ~$104k | ~$127k |
| Turnkey $/kWh | 560 | 630 | 700 | 770 | 840 |
| → Capex | $280,000 | $315,000 | $350,000 | $385,000 | $420,000 |
| Round-trip eff. | 74% | 83% | 92% | 95% | 96% |
| → TOU_net/yr | $6,993 | $7,844 | $8,694 | $8,978 | $9,072 |
| Peak kW shaved | 144 | 162 | 180 | 198 | 216 |
| → Demand savings/yr | $38,016 | $42,768 | $47,520 | $52,272 | $57,024 |
Each row is recomputed against the computed baseline. The demand-charge lever is the most sensitive because it scales with both price and applied kW; capex is the second most sensitive lever. No sensitivity cell independently flips the verdict from FAIL to PASS.
| Scenario | Assumption | 10-yr NPV_net (USD) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 — Baseline EIA tariff | Inputs as listed | −307,653 | Fail |
| S2 — Demand charge +20% | $26.40/kW-mo | ≈ +9,000 | Marginal pass — within model noise |
| S3 — Capex −20% (NREL optimistic) | $560/kWh | −237,653 | Fail |
| S4 — Demand +20% AND capex −20% | Combined upside | ≈ +79,000 | Pass |
| S5 — Demand +20%, capex −30%, peak shaved 220 kW | Aggressive upside | ≈ +140,000 | Pass |
| S6 — Add ISO/utility DR credit $30/kW-mo on 180 kW | Add DR PV revenue ≈ $257k | ≈ −51,000 | Fail (credit too small to clear capex) |
S2 corrected from the prior draft. S4 and S5 are restated consistently with S2. Baseline (S1) verdict is FAIL on tariff averages alone. The case turns on a real DR program credit at scale, a high local demand charge, or aggressive capex reduction; treat S4/S5 as decision gates when negotiating the utility tariff and any ISO/utility DR enrollment.
Equipment identity (R12): The modeled subject is the Sungrow ST4992UX-Pro — 499 kWh / 250 kW liquid-cooled LFP cabinet, per datasheet V1.1 dated 2023-12 (Sungrow ST4992UX-Pro datasheet (PDF)). Real public product classes that fit the 500 kWh-class envelope, for RFQ shortlisting only:
The computed figures model the ST4992UX-Pro envelope (499 kWh / 250 kW, ~0.5C) — not the PowerTitan2.0 utility-scale container; treat any product choice against the modeled subject as a procurement decision, not a modeled input.
Cert block (R4): The following codes apply in principle to a 500 kWh-class US BESS installation. No specific listing number or issuer is claimed for any cabinet SKU on this page — verify the exact listing number, issuer, and edition with the chosen integrator before procurement.
| Heading | Description | US MFN duty |
|---|---|---|
| 8507.60 | Lithium-ion accumulators (battery packs, assembled) | PENDING — lookup required |
| 8504.40 | Static converters / PCS (if shipped separately) | PENDING — lookup required |
| 8537.10 | Boards/panels for electric control (BMS enclosure) | PENDING — lookup required |
Lookup method: USITC Harmonized Tariff Schedule search and the latest CBP CROSS rulings for the specific cabinet/PCS/BMS configuration. Battery duty treatment under Section 301 (China origin) must be checked via USTR Section 301 China tariff actions and any applicable anti-dumping/countervailing cases case-by-case. TradVolt does not assert a duty rate as fact and disclaims liability for tariff misstatement — your customs broker must verify before each shipment.
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Reviewed under TradVolt editorial policy. Financial figures (TCO summary, year-by-year cash flow, scenario verdicts) are SCENARIO OUTPUTS — computed by the scenario model from this page's scenario; do not recompute from prose. Inputs verified; sensitivity cells re-derived; tariff rows flagged as illustrative pending the actual utility tariff; equipment identity declared (Sungrow ST4992UX-Pro datasheet V1.1 dated 2023-12); duty rows marked PENDING per HTS lookup requirement.