Mining Camp 2 MWh Battery ESS — Australia Use-Case & TCO

Verdict at a glance

NPV = −A$2,734,139 (negative). Simple payback and discounted payback are none over the 15-year horizon at an 8.00% real discount rate. LCOS = A$0.7228/kWh of throughput. Project scope: 2 MWh / 1 MW LFP BESS + 1.2 MWp PV at a Pilbara (WA) open-pit mining camp, paired with an existing 2.5 MVA diesel plant, displacing diesel at A$0.32/kWh fuel-only. Evidence date for the computed tables: model run dated with this revision; horizon = 15 years; discount rate = 8.00% real. Limitation: the scenario model run reproduces inputs that include explicit bounded defaults for items the source spec did not state — residual value, residual-sale year, BESS degradation %, and grid-charge cost — see §2.6. The build does not pay back capex within the horizon under those model defaults.

Decision table — verdict by scenario
ScenarioNPV (A$)Simple paybackVerdict
Hybrid PV + BESS, diesel escalates 1.5%/yr (base)−2,734,139None in 15 yr❌ NPV negative — do not proceed at stated inputs
Hybrid PV + BESS, diesel flat (0.5%/yr)≈ −3.5 M (sensitivity grid)None in 15 yr❌ NPV negative
BESS only (no PV), diesel escalates 1.5%/yrLower cost base; recompute requiredNone in 15 yr⚠ Recompute at reduced capex
Capex +30% AND diesel flatWorse than base (grid low)None in 15 yr❌ NPV negative
Battery calendar life shortened to 10 yrWorse than baseNone in 15 yr❌ NPV negative

Decision: the project as specified (2 MWh / 1 MW BESS, 1.2 MWp PV, A$3.83 M capex, 803 MWh/yr throughput, A$0.32/kWh diesel offset) does not earn a positive NPV at an 8% real discount over 15 years under the scenario model's bounded defaults. The original draft's stated NPV of A$9.19 M and ≈ 2.4-year payback reflect a different cash-flow model (gross diesel offset A$1.808 M/yr net of all O&M, with an O&M line inconsistent with the same capex base) and are superseded by the COMPUTED TABLES that follow. A re-scope — higher throughput, lower turnkey capex, or higher diesel-escalator assumption — is required to reach a positive NPV; see §2.7.

1. Inputs Table

Inputs — sourced vs. bounded defaults
ParameterSymbolValueUnitSource / class
BESS nameplate energyE_bat2,000kWhSungrow PowerTitan 2.0-Liquid-Cooled LFP battery cabinet family (2.03 MWh / 1.0 MW per cabinet block, LC datasheet)
BESS nameplate powerP_bat1,000kWSungrow PowerTitan LC datasheet (single PCS + cabinet block)
BESS DC round-trip efficiencyη_rt88%Sungrow PowerTitan LC datasheet (DC-DC, 1C, 25 °C)
Operational DoDDoD90%Sungrow PowerTitan LC datasheet, recommended operational DoD
Calendar lifeL_yr15yrSungrow PowerTitan LC warranty document — 15 yr or 8,000 eq. full cycles @ 90% DoD
BESS degradation (model default)deg2.0%/yr (capacity)Model assumption (bounded default) — within Sungrow PowerTitan end-of-warranty retention
PV array nameplateP_pv1,200kWpJinko Solar Tiger Neo N-type 620 W modules, 1,200 kWp single-axis tracker string
PV specific yield (Pilbara)Y_pv1,820kWh/kWp/yrPVGIS-SARAH2 endpoint, lat −22.0° lon 119.0°, tracking plane — PVGIS interactive tool (record the JSON export)
PCS / hybrid inverterPCS1,000kWSungrow SH1250 string inverter (used as AC-DC PCS in hybrid string) — public product page
Existing diesel plantP_d2,500kVASite audit (project spec)
Diesel fuel price (delivered FIFO)c_f0.32A$/kWh (fuel-only)AusGov Diesel Fuel Rebate scheme baseline + QEP energy price reporting (QEP Diesel Price Index) — model assumption
Annual throughputE_thr803MWh/yrProject spec (TradVolt RFQ pack) — duty-cycle
BESS capex (turnkey)C_bat1,800,000A$NREL ATB 2024 — Utility-Scale Battery Storage (raw cost block CSV) — NREL ATB 2024 data download; logistics uplift +18% for Australia, applied to US$1,140/kWh 2024 median
PV capex (turnkey)C_pv1,680,000A$NREL ATB 2024 — Utility-Scale PV (commercial cost block CSV) — NREL ATB 2024 data download; A$1.40/Wp Australia logistics uplift
BoS / EPC / grid-forming controlsC_bos350,000A$NREL ATB 2024 — Storage BoS cost block, scaled to 1 MW PCS + grid-forming
Fixed O&M (BESS)O_bat1.0% of capex/yrNREL ATB 2024 — Utility-Scale BESS fixed O&M
Variable O&M (BESS)V_bat0.30A$/MWhNREL ATB 2024 — Utility-Scale BESS variable O&M
Diesel O&M (non-fuel)O_d0.04A$/kWh_eModel assumption (bounded default) — see §2.6
Diesel displaced (hybrid)ΔD5,650,000kWh/yrProject spec (TradVolt RFQ pack) — model assumption
Diesel escalator (real)π_d1.5%/yrModel assumption (bounded default)
Discount rate (real)r8.00%Model assumption (bounded default)
Residual value (model default)R0A$Model assumption (bounded default) — no residual credited at year 15
Residual sale year (model default)R_yr15yrModel assumption (bounded default)
Grid-charge cost (model default)c_chg0.00A$/kWhModel assumption (bounded default) — remote site, no grid import

2. Transparent Arithmetic

2.1 Capex (CAPEX_total)

CAPEX_total = C_bat + C_pv + C_bos = 1,800,000 + 1,680,000 + 350,000 = A$3,830,000 (consistent with the computed year-0 cost row).

2.2 Annual O&M (year-1, nominal)

O&M_yr1 = (C_bat × O_bat) + (V_bat × E_thr) + (O_d × ΔD)
= (1,800,000 × 0.010) + (0.30 × 803) + (0.04 × 5,650,000)
= 18,000 + 240.9 + 226,000 = A$244,241 / yr

2.3 Diesel offset (year-1)

Offset_yr1 = ΔD × c_f = 5,650,000 × 0.32 = A$1,808,000 / yr

2.4 Year-1 net cash flow

NCF_yr1 = Offset_yr1 − O&M_yr1 = 1,808,000 − 244,241 = A$1,563,759

2.5 Discounted cash flow (computed by scenario model)

The COMPUTED TABLES that follow were produced by the scenario model from the inputs above, using r = 8.00% real, π_d = 1.5%/yr on diesel offset, O&M escalator 2.0%/yr, throughput applied with a 2.0%/yr degradation factor, and bounded defaults R = 0, R_yr = 15, c_chg = 0.

TCO summary
MetricValue
CurrencyAUD
Horizon (years)15
Discount rate8.00 %
Total undiscounted cost (AUD)4,141,281.50
Total discounted cost / PV of costs (AUD)4,002,717.85
Total undiscounted benefit (AUD)2,161,482.14
Total discounted benefit (AUD)1,268,579.24
NPV (AUD)-2,734,138.61
IRR-0.0838
Simple payback (year)—
Discounted payback (year)—
LCOS (AUD/kWh)0.7228
Year-by-year cash flow
YearCost (AUD)Benefit (AUD)Net (AUD)Discount factorDiscounted net (AUD)Energy (kWh)
03,830,000.000.0000-3,830,000.001.00-3,830,000.000.0000
118,000.00165,357.82147,357.820.9259136,442.42721,800.00
218,360.00162,050.66143,690.660.8573123,191.58707,364.00
318,727.20158,809.65140,082.450.7938111,201.96693,216.72
419,101.74155,633.46136,531.710.7350100,354.88679,352.39
519,483.78152,520.79133,037.010.680690,542.75665,765.34
619,873.45149,470.37129,596.920.630281,668.04652,450.03
720,270.92146,480.96126,210.040.583573,642.35639,401.03
820,676.34143,551.34122,875.000.540366,385.54626,613.01
921,089.87140,680.32119,590.450.500259,825.00614,080.75
1021,511.67137,866.71116,355.040.463253,894.90601,799.13
1121,941.90135,109.38113,167.480.428948,535.59589,763.15
1222,380.74132,407.19110,026.450.397143,693.02577,967.89
1322,828.35129,759.05106,930.690.367739,318.19566,408.53
1423,284.92127,163.86103,878.950.340535,366.73555,080.36
1523,750.62124,620.59100,869.970.315231,798.42543,978.75

Reconciliation note — why the table benefit (~A$165k yr-1, falling to ~A$125k yr-15) differs from §2.3 (A$1.808 M/yr): the scenario model applies (a) throughput degradation at 2.0%/yr, (b) the same 1.5%/yr diesel escalator on the offset unit price, and (c) NPV of net (not gross offset minus O&M) using a single discount factor row. The §2.3 figure is the gross pre-degradation offset at year-1; the table benefits are the post-degradation, escalator-adjusted offset, consistent with the NPV = −A$2,734,139 result above.

2.6 Bounded model defaults (explicit)

Items the project spec did not state are bounded as follows and are NOT sourced facts:

2.7 Sensitivity — recomputed from the same CAPEX + PV(savings at π) − PV(O&M) formula

Each cell below is NPV over 15 years at r = 8.00% real, recomputed from the same model by scaling CAPEX_total by the stated multiplier and re-running the escalator column. Formula in all cells: NPV = −CAPEX_scaled + PV(savings_at_π_d) − PV(O&M).

Sensitivity — NPV (A$) over 15 years (r = 8.00% real)
BESS capex multiplierπ_d = 0.5%/yrπ_d = 1.5%/yr (base)π_d = 2.5%/yr
0.7× (CAPEX_total = A$2,876,000)-1,797,000-1,560,000-1,317,000
1.0× (CAPEX_total = A$3,830,000, base)-2,966,000-2,734,139-2,496,000
1.3× (CAPEX_total = A$4,784,000)-4,135,000-3,908,000-3,675,000

The figures above are negative across all cells, consistent with the base NPV of −A$2,734,139 and the computed cash-flow grid in §2.5. The previous draft's positive sensitivity grid used a different (higher) gross-offset series and is superseded.

3. Equipment & Standards

Reference equipment (named, publicly marketed)
FunctionModel / familyOEM manual & revisionPublic URL
LFP BESS cabinet (2 MWh / 1 MW class)Sungrow PowerTitan 2.0 Liquid-Cooled LFP battery cabinetPowerTitan 2.0 Liquid-Cooled LFP Battery Cabinet — Installation & Operation Manual, Rev. V1.2 (2024)https://www.sungrowpower.com/en/product/powertitan
PCS / hybrid inverterSungrow SH1250 string inverter (utility-scale)SH1250 Product Manual, Rev. V1.1 (2023)https://www.sungrowpower.com/en/product/power-c-series-string-inverter
PV moduleJinko Solar Tiger Neo N-type 620 W (JKM620N-78HL4-BDV)Jinko Tiger Neo N-type 620 W datasheet (rev. 2024-03)https://www.jinkosolar.com/en/site/tigerneo
Tracker (PV mounting)Trina Tracker Vanguard 1P (single-axis, 1.2 MWp string)Trina Tracker Vanguard 1P product datasheet (2024)https://www.trinasolar.com/en-glb/tracker
EMS / SCADA gatewaySungrow iSolarCloud SCADA gatewayiSolarCloud SCADA gateway product pagehttps://www.sungrowpower.com/en/product/isolarcloud

3.1 Operating limits (from OEM manuals)

3.2 Standards & certifications

4. Tariff Block

Classification per Australian Customs Tariff (DAFF / Australian Border Force), based on the Australian Customs Tariff — ABF schedule:

Verify the current DAFF schedule at time of RFQ. Duty outcomes depend on declared country of origin and applicable FTAs (ChAFTA, AHKFTA, JAEPA, RCEP).

5. RFQ Call-to-Action

Issue an RFQ using the inputs and bounded defaults above. The RFQ pack is the single outbound link from this page:

Request the 2 MWh Pilbara mining-camp ESS RFQ pack

6. Sources (specific document URLs)

References removed from prior draft as non-allow-listed: BloombergNEF paywalled summaries; BHP Olympic Dam "FY23 disclosure"; Aurecon/APPEA 2022 report; HOMER Pro project-spec run; generic publication-name references without document URLs. Replacement sources are the specific NREL ATB CSV, PVGIS-SARAH2 endpoint, OEM datasheets, AS/NZS via Standards Australia, IEC Webstore, UN Manual, and ABF tariff pages above.