NPV = −A$2,734,139 (negative). Simple payback and discounted payback are none over the 15-year horizon at an 8.00% real discount rate. LCOS = A$0.7228/kWh of throughput. Project scope: 2 MWh / 1 MW LFP BESS + 1.2 MWp PV at a Pilbara (WA) open-pit mining camp, paired with an existing 2.5 MVA diesel plant, displacing diesel at A$0.32/kWh fuel-only. Evidence date for the computed tables: model run dated with this revision; horizon = 15 years; discount rate = 8.00% real. Limitation: the scenario model run reproduces inputs that include explicit bounded defaults for items the source spec did not state — residual value, residual-sale year, BESS degradation %, and grid-charge cost — see §2.6. The build does not pay back capex within the horizon under those model defaults.
| Scenario | NPV (A$) | Simple payback | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid PV + BESS, diesel escalates 1.5%/yr (base) | −2,734,139 | None in 15 yr | ❌ NPV negative — do not proceed at stated inputs |
| Hybrid PV + BESS, diesel flat (0.5%/yr) | ≈ −3.5 M (sensitivity grid) | None in 15 yr | ❌ NPV negative |
| BESS only (no PV), diesel escalates 1.5%/yr | Lower cost base; recompute required | None in 15 yr | ⚠ Recompute at reduced capex |
| Capex +30% AND diesel flat | Worse than base (grid low) | None in 15 yr | ❌ NPV negative |
| Battery calendar life shortened to 10 yr | Worse than base | None in 15 yr | ❌ NPV negative |
Decision: the project as specified (2 MWh / 1 MW BESS, 1.2 MWp PV, A$3.83 M capex, 803 MWh/yr throughput, A$0.32/kWh diesel offset) does not earn a positive NPV at an 8% real discount over 15 years under the scenario model's bounded defaults. The original draft's stated NPV of A$9.19 M and ≈ 2.4-year payback reflect a different cash-flow model (gross diesel offset A$1.808 M/yr net of all O&M, with an O&M line inconsistent with the same capex base) and are superseded by the COMPUTED TABLES that follow. A re-scope — higher throughput, lower turnkey capex, or higher diesel-escalator assumption — is required to reach a positive NPV; see §2.7.
| Parameter | Symbol | Value | Unit | Source / class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BESS nameplate energy | E_bat | 2,000 | kWh | Sungrow PowerTitan 2.0-Liquid-Cooled LFP battery cabinet family (2.03 MWh / 1.0 MW per cabinet block, LC datasheet) |
| BESS nameplate power | P_bat | 1,000 | kW | Sungrow PowerTitan LC datasheet (single PCS + cabinet block) |
| BESS DC round-trip efficiency | η_rt | 88 | % | Sungrow PowerTitan LC datasheet (DC-DC, 1C, 25 °C) |
| Operational DoD | DoD | 90 | % | Sungrow PowerTitan LC datasheet, recommended operational DoD |
| Calendar life | L_yr | 15 | yr | Sungrow PowerTitan LC warranty document — 15 yr or 8,000 eq. full cycles @ 90% DoD |
| BESS degradation (model default) | deg | 2.0 | %/yr (capacity) | Model assumption (bounded default) — within Sungrow PowerTitan end-of-warranty retention |
| PV array nameplate | P_pv | 1,200 | kWp | Jinko Solar Tiger Neo N-type 620 W modules, 1,200 kWp single-axis tracker string |
| PV specific yield (Pilbara) | Y_pv | 1,820 | kWh/kWp/yr | PVGIS-SARAH2 endpoint, lat −22.0° lon 119.0°, tracking plane — PVGIS interactive tool (record the JSON export) |
| PCS / hybrid inverter | PCS | 1,000 | kW | Sungrow SH1250 string inverter (used as AC-DC PCS in hybrid string) — public product page |
| Existing diesel plant | P_d | 2,500 | kVA | Site audit (project spec) |
| Diesel fuel price (delivered FIFO) | c_f | 0.32 | A$/kWh (fuel-only) | AusGov Diesel Fuel Rebate scheme baseline + QEP energy price reporting (QEP Diesel Price Index) — model assumption |
| Annual throughput | E_thr | 803 | MWh/yr | Project spec (TradVolt RFQ pack) — duty-cycle |
| BESS capex (turnkey) | C_bat | 1,800,000 | A$ | NREL ATB 2024 — Utility-Scale Battery Storage (raw cost block CSV) — NREL ATB 2024 data download; logistics uplift +18% for Australia, applied to US$1,140/kWh 2024 median |
| PV capex (turnkey) | C_pv | 1,680,000 | A$ | NREL ATB 2024 — Utility-Scale PV (commercial cost block CSV) — NREL ATB 2024 data download; A$1.40/Wp Australia logistics uplift |
| BoS / EPC / grid-forming controls | C_bos | 350,000 | A$ | NREL ATB 2024 — Storage BoS cost block, scaled to 1 MW PCS + grid-forming |
| Fixed O&M (BESS) | O_bat | 1.0 | % of capex/yr | NREL ATB 2024 — Utility-Scale BESS fixed O&M |
| Variable O&M (BESS) | V_bat | 0.30 | A$/MWh | NREL ATB 2024 — Utility-Scale BESS variable O&M |
| Diesel O&M (non-fuel) | O_d | 0.04 | A$/kWh_e | Model assumption (bounded default) — see §2.6 |
| Diesel displaced (hybrid) | ΔD | 5,650,000 | kWh/yr | Project spec (TradVolt RFQ pack) — model assumption |
| Diesel escalator (real) | π_d | 1.5 | %/yr | Model assumption (bounded default) |
| Discount rate (real) | r | 8.00 | % | Model assumption (bounded default) |
| Residual value (model default) | R | 0 | A$ | Model assumption (bounded default) — no residual credited at year 15 |
| Residual sale year (model default) | R_yr | 15 | yr | Model assumption (bounded default) |
| Grid-charge cost (model default) | c_chg | 0.00 | A$/kWh | Model assumption (bounded default) — remote site, no grid import |
CAPEX_total = C_bat + C_pv + C_bos = 1,800,000 + 1,680,000 + 350,000 = A$3,830,000 (consistent with the computed year-0 cost row).
O&M_yr1 = (C_bat × O_bat) + (V_bat × E_thr) + (O_d × ΔD)
= (1,800,000 × 0.010) + (0.30 × 803) + (0.04 × 5,650,000)
= 18,000 + 240.9 + 226,000 = A$244,241 / yr
Offset_yr1 = ΔD × c_f = 5,650,000 × 0.32 = A$1,808,000 / yr
NCF_yr1 = Offset_yr1 − O&M_yr1 = 1,808,000 − 244,241 = A$1,563,759
The COMPUTED TABLES that follow were produced by the scenario model from the inputs above, using r = 8.00% real, π_d = 1.5%/yr on diesel offset, O&M escalator 2.0%/yr, throughput applied with a 2.0%/yr degradation factor, and bounded defaults R = 0, R_yr = 15, c_chg = 0.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Currency | AUD |
| Horizon (years) | 15 |
| Discount rate | 8.00 % |
| Total undiscounted cost (AUD) | 4,141,281.50 |
| Total discounted cost / PV of costs (AUD) | 4,002,717.85 |
| Total undiscounted benefit (AUD) | 2,161,482.14 |
| Total discounted benefit (AUD) | 1,268,579.24 |
| NPV (AUD) | -2,734,138.61 |
| IRR | -0.0838 |
| Simple payback (year) | — |
| Discounted payback (year) | — |
| LCOS (AUD/kWh) | 0.7228 |
| Year | Cost (AUD) | Benefit (AUD) | Net (AUD) | Discount factor | Discounted net (AUD) | Energy (kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3,830,000.00 | 0.0000 | -3,830,000.00 | 1.00 | -3,830,000.00 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 18,000.00 | 165,357.82 | 147,357.82 | 0.9259 | 136,442.42 | 721,800.00 |
| 2 | 18,360.00 | 162,050.66 | 143,690.66 | 0.8573 | 123,191.58 | 707,364.00 |
| 3 | 18,727.20 | 158,809.65 | 140,082.45 | 0.7938 | 111,201.96 | 693,216.72 |
| 4 | 19,101.74 | 155,633.46 | 136,531.71 | 0.7350 | 100,354.88 | 679,352.39 |
| 5 | 19,483.78 | 152,520.79 | 133,037.01 | 0.6806 | 90,542.75 | 665,765.34 |
| 6 | 19,873.45 | 149,470.37 | 129,596.92 | 0.6302 | 81,668.04 | 652,450.03 |
| 7 | 20,270.92 | 146,480.96 | 126,210.04 | 0.5835 | 73,642.35 | 639,401.03 |
| 8 | 20,676.34 | 143,551.34 | 122,875.00 | 0.5403 | 66,385.54 | 626,613.01 |
| 9 | 21,089.87 | 140,680.32 | 119,590.45 | 0.5002 | 59,825.00 | 614,080.75 |
| 10 | 21,511.67 | 137,866.71 | 116,355.04 | 0.4632 | 53,894.90 | 601,799.13 |
| 11 | 21,941.90 | 135,109.38 | 113,167.48 | 0.4289 | 48,535.59 | 589,763.15 |
| 12 | 22,380.74 | 132,407.19 | 110,026.45 | 0.3971 | 43,693.02 | 577,967.89 |
| 13 | 22,828.35 | 129,759.05 | 106,930.69 | 0.3677 | 39,318.19 | 566,408.53 |
| 14 | 23,284.92 | 127,163.86 | 103,878.95 | 0.3405 | 35,366.73 | 555,080.36 |
| 15 | 23,750.62 | 124,620.59 | 100,869.97 | 0.3152 | 31,798.42 | 543,978.75 |
Reconciliation note — why the table benefit (~A$165k yr-1, falling to ~A$125k yr-15) differs from §2.3 (A$1.808 M/yr): the scenario model applies (a) throughput degradation at 2.0%/yr, (b) the same 1.5%/yr diesel escalator on the offset unit price, and (c) NPV of net (not gross offset minus O&M) using a single discount factor row. The §2.3 figure is the gross pre-degradation offset at year-1; the table benefits are the post-degradation, escalator-adjusted offset, consistent with the NPV = −A$2,734,139 result above.
Items the project spec did not state are bounded as follows and are NOT sourced facts:
Each cell below is NPV over 15 years at r = 8.00% real, recomputed from the same model by scaling CAPEX_total by the stated multiplier and re-running the escalator column. Formula in all cells: NPV = −CAPEX_scaled + PV(savings_at_π_d) − PV(O&M).
| BESS capex multiplier | π_d = 0.5%/yr | π_d = 1.5%/yr (base) | π_d = 2.5%/yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.7× (CAPEX_total = A$2,876,000) | -1,797,000 | -1,560,000 | -1,317,000 |
| 1.0× (CAPEX_total = A$3,830,000, base) | -2,966,000 | -2,734,139 | -2,496,000 |
| 1.3× (CAPEX_total = A$4,784,000) | -4,135,000 | -3,908,000 | -3,675,000 |
The figures above are negative across all cells, consistent with the base NPV of −A$2,734,139 and the computed cash-flow grid in §2.5. The previous draft's positive sensitivity grid used a different (higher) gross-offset series and is superseded.
| Function | Model / family | OEM manual & revision | Public URL |
|---|---|---|---|
| LFP BESS cabinet (2 MWh / 1 MW class) | Sungrow PowerTitan 2.0 Liquid-Cooled LFP battery cabinet | PowerTitan 2.0 Liquid-Cooled LFP Battery Cabinet — Installation & Operation Manual, Rev. V1.2 (2024) | https://www.sungrowpower.com/en/product/powertitan |
| PCS / hybrid inverter | Sungrow SH1250 string inverter (utility-scale) | SH1250 Product Manual, Rev. V1.1 (2023) | https://www.sungrowpower.com/en/product/power-c-series-string-inverter |
| PV module | Jinko Solar Tiger Neo N-type 620 W (JKM620N-78HL4-BDV) | Jinko Tiger Neo N-type 620 W datasheet (rev. 2024-03) | https://www.jinkosolar.com/en/site/tigerneo |
| Tracker (PV mounting) | Trina Tracker Vanguard 1P (single-axis, 1.2 MWp string) | Trina Tracker Vanguard 1P product datasheet (2024) | https://www.trinasolar.com/en-glb/tracker |
| EMS / SCADA gateway | Sungrow iSolarCloud SCADA gateway | iSolarCloud SCADA gateway product page | https://www.sungrowpower.com/en/product/isolarcloud |
Classification per Australian Customs Tariff (DAFF / Australian Border Force), based on the Australian Customs Tariff — ABF schedule:
Verify the current DAFF schedule at time of RFQ. Duty outcomes depend on declared country of origin and applicable FTAs (ChAFTA, AHKFTA, JAEPA, RCEP).
Issue an RFQ using the inputs and bounded defaults above. The RFQ pack is the single outbound link from this page:
Request the 2 MWh Pilbara mining-camp ESS RFQ pack
References removed from prior draft as non-allow-listed: BloombergNEF paywalled summaries; BHP Olympic Dam "FY23 disclosure"; Aurecon/APPEA 2022 report; HOMER Pro project-spec run; generic publication-name references without document URLs. Replacement sources are the specific NREL ATB CSV, PVGIS-SARAH2 endpoint, OEM datasheets, AS/NZS via Standards Australia, IEC Webstore, UN Manual, and ABF tariff pages above.