Verdict (10-year horizon, Australia, evidence dated 2026-01-15): Standalone NPV is −274,386.54 AUD (discounted at 7.00 %/yr), simple payback and discounted payback are not reached over the 10-year window, and LCOS = 1.38 AUD/kWh. The modelled 150 kWh containerised LFP system is a standalone negative-NPV proposition on energy-arbitrage cash terms alone; it is only commercially defensible when paired with avoided-outage value, a TOU spread materially wider than 0.20 AUD/kWh, or a state/federal grant. Limitation: figures derive from the inputs below and the bounded model assumptions declared in Section 2; they are not a quotation.
Item
Value
Unit / Note
Equipment
Containerised LFP ESS, 150 kWh / 150 kW class (CATL 280 Ah LFP cells in Sungrow / SolaX-class PCS enclosure)
See Section 3 for named models and datasheet URLs
Location
Australia (NSW tariff envelope assumed)
—
Horizon
10
years
Discount rate
7.00
% / year, real, after-tax WACC proxy
NPV
−274,386.54
AUD (discounted)
IRR
n/a
No positive cash-flow crossing within horizon
Simple payback
—
Not reached in 10 years
Discounted payback
—
Not reached in 10 years
LCOS
1.38
AUD per kWh delivered (discounted)
Total undiscounted cost
355,796.65
AUD
PV of costs
315,678.01
AUD (discounted)
Total undiscounted benefit
57,975.36
AUD
PV of benefits
41,291.47
AUD (discounted)
Evidence date
2026-01-15
Sources cited inline
Contents
Sources table (named documents)
Inputs table (cited + bounded assumptions)
Named equipment models
Capex (Year 0)
Opex (annual)
TCO summary (computed table)
Year-by-year cash flow (computed table)
Sensitivity table
Verdict by scenario
Mini cert & compliance block
HS code & duty block
CTAs
1. Sources Table
Row in this page
Claim
Source type
Specific document URL
Cycle life 6,000 cycles @ 80 % DoD (CATL class)
LFP prismatic cell cycle life
OEM product page (JS-rendered; specs confirmed at RFQ)
Indicative retailer tariff — same source; verify with retailer bill
Tariff spread (peak − shoulder)
0.20
AUD/kWh
Derived from above two rows
Charge cost per kWh
0.18
AUD/kWh
Model assumption (bounded) — asset.ess.charge_cost_per_kwh, set to shoulder/off-peak tariff
Value per kWh discharged
0.38
AUD/kWh
Model assumption (bounded) — asset.ess.value_per_kwh_discharged, set to peak tariff
Residual value
0.00
AUD
Model assumption (bounded) — residual_value.amount
Residual value year
10
year
Model assumption (bounded) — residual_value.year
Opex inflation
2.0
% / year
Model assumption (bounded) — applied to recurring opex line items Y2–Y10
Reading the inputs table: cited rows point to a specific OEM product page, an RBA FX page, or a retailer tariff PDF; rows tagged Model assumption (bounded) are explicit bounded defaults declared because the draft did not state them. They are not sourced facts and must be confirmed by the buyer.
15/20/25/30 kW hybrid; MPPT 160–950 V, 36 A each; 200 % PV oversizing; 200 % EPS overload 10 s; <10 ms switch; 60 A charge/discharge; 10-unit parallel; IP66; Type II SPD
Container / enclosure
10-ft ISO containerised BESS enclosure with HVAC
Generic (project pack)
Not OEM-branded; conforms to ISO 668 1C (10-ft)
—
The modelled "150 kWh / 150 kW class containerised LFP" is realised as a stack of approximately 7–8 battery cabinets (e.g., BYD Battery-Box Premium HVS or Deye BOS-G-class modules, configurable in parallel to ≈ 150 kWh) fronted by one Sungrow SH5/6/8/10/12T, Fox ESS H3 PRO or SolaX X3-ULTRA-class PCS in a 10-ft ISO container with HVAC, aerosol fire suppression and EMS/SCADA gateway. System-level limits (max charge/discharge current, SOC window, voltage window) are those of the OEM datasheet revision cited above and must be re-confirmed against the supplier declaration prior to procurement.
4. Capex (Year 0)
Line item
AUD (ex-GST)
Note
Battery modules (LFP, 150 kWh)
75,000
Indicative distributor pricing for 2025-vintage LFP cells (CATL / EVE class)
PCS / hybrid inverter 150 kW class
45,000
Sungrow SH5/6/8/10/12T / Fox ESS H3 PRO / SolaX X3-ULTRA class (sized for 1C duty)
BOS (switchgear, cabling, AC/DC)
18,000
Indicative
Containerised enclosure + HVAC
22,000
10-ft ISO container, climate-controlled
Fire suppression + ventilation
9,500
Aerosol / clean-agent system
EMS / SCADA gateway
7,500
Vendor energy-management software licence
Transport to site (intra-NSW)
5,000
Indicative logistics quote (UN 38.3 compliant)
Install, commissioning, training
14,000
EPC contractor day-rate × estimated days
Engineering, permits, network study
8,000
Indicative
Contingency 10 %
20,400
Sum of above × 0.10
Capex subtotal (ex-GST, ex-duty)
224,400
Sum of all line items incl. contingency
5. Opex (annual)
Line item
AUD/year (Y1)
Note
Preventative maintenance (incl. parts)
4,500
Quarterly site visit, remote monitoring
Remote monitoring subscription
1,200
Vendor cloud platform
Insurance surcharge
1,800
Annual policy uplift for battery
Augmentation reserve (capacity top-up)
3,000
Reserve fund for cell-top-up at Year 7–8
Network charges (if export-limited)
1,500
Stand-by, demand, network access
Opex subtotal (Y1)
12,000
Sum of all line items, inflated at 2.0 %/yr from Y2
6. TCO Summary (computed table)
TCO summary
Metric
Value
Currency
AUD
Horizon (years)
10
Discount rate
7.00 %
Total undiscounted cost (AUD)
355,796.65
Total discounted cost / PV of costs (AUD)
315,678.01
Total undiscounted benefit (AUD)
57,975.36
Total discounted benefit (AUD)
41,291.47
NPV (AUD)
-274,386.54
IRR
n/a
Simple payback (year)
—
Discounted payback (year)
—
LCOS (AUD/kWh)
1.38
7. Year-by-Year Cash Flow (computed table)
Year-by-year cash flow
Year
Cost (AUD)
Benefit (AUD)
Net (AUD)
Discount factor
Discounted net (AUD)
Energy (kWh)
0
224,400.00
0.0000
-224,400.00
1.00
-224,400.00
0.0000
1
12,000.00
6,480.00
-5,520.00
0.9346
-5,158.88
36,000.00
2
12,240.00
6,318.00
-5,922.00
0.8734
-5,172.50
35,100.00
3
12,484.80
6,160.05
-6,324.75
0.8163
-5,162.88
34,222.50
4
12,734.50
6,006.05
-6,728.45
0.7629
-5,133.10
33,366.94
5
12,989.19
5,855.90
-7,133.29
0.7130
-5,085.94
32,532.76
6
13,248.97
5,709.50
-7,539.47
0.6663
-5,023.87
31,719.44
7
13,513.95
5,566.76
-7,947.19
0.6227
-4,949.11
30,926.46
8
13,784.23
5,427.59
-8,356.63
0.5820
-4,863.64
30,153.30
9
14,059.91
5,291.90
-8,768.01
0.5439
-4,769.22
29,399.46
10
14,341.11
5,159.61
-9,181.50
0.5083
-4,667.41
28,664.48
8. Sensitivity Table
Variable
−20 %
Base
+20 %
Effect on 10-yr LCOS (AUD/kWh)
Capex
179,520
224,400
269,280
LCOS moves roughly ±0.10 AUD/kWh around 1.38
Discount rate
5.6 %
7.0 %
8.4 %
LCOS rises ~+3 % at +1.4 pp, falls ~−2 % at −1.4 pp
Cycle life (EOL threshold)
4,800
6,000
7,200
LCOS inverse: +20 % cycles ⇒ ~−6 % LCOS
Annual benefit
0.8 × base
1.0 × base
1.2 × base
NPV swing dominates; payback moves ±2 yrs (none in 10 yrs at base)
Negative-NPV under stated assumptions. Viable only if paired with resilience, subsidy, or a materially wider TOU spread.
Tariff arbitrage (wider spread required)
NPV improves linearly with spread
1.38 (unchanged)
Still negative at a 0.20 AUD/kWh spread; would need a sustained ≥ ~0.50 AUD/kWh spread, or additional value-stacking, to approach break-even.
Outage resilience value (avoided-loss)
−274,386.54 on cash terms alone
1.38
Standalone negative on cash terms alone. Justified only on an avoided-loss basis (crop value at risk, insurance credit, contractual SLA).
Reading the verdict: the three scenarios are modelled against the same hardware, opex, discount rate and degradation curve; only the benefit function differs. The computed tables in Sections 6 and 7 reflect the bounded assumptions declared in Section 2. Commercial viability improves materially when (a) a state or federal grant is captured, (b) the site has a high-value crop with genuine outage-risk exposure, or (c) the system is value-stacked across multiple daily TOU windows.
10. Mini Cert & Compliance Block
Indicative compliance map — verify before procurement:
AS/NZS 5139 — Safety of battery energy storage systems (installations); product must appear on the Clean Energy Council approved batteries list to qualify for connection and SRES pathways — CEC approved batteries list (CEC)
AS/NZS 4777.2 — Grid connection of energy systems via inverters (Australia); product must appear on the CEC approved inverters list — CEC Products Program hub (CEC)
IEC 62619:2022 ed2 — Secondary lithium cells and batteries for use in industrial applications including stationary/ESS (TC 21/SC 21A) — IEC 62619:2022 ed2 webstore entry (IEC)
IEC 62485-5:2020 — Safety requirements for secondary batteries and battery installations, Part 5: Safe operation of stationary lithium-ion batteries (TC 21) — IEC 62485-5:2020 webstore entry (IEC)
Lookup instructions: confirm final classification and applicable duty rate via the Australian Border Force Working Tariff and a licensed customs broker before any import. Verify whether the system qualifies for any free-trade-agreement preference (e.g., AANZFTA, RCEP, ChAFTA) based on country of origin. Check whether a Tariff Concession Order or Advance Ruling applies to the specific goods.
Disclaimer: we do not assert any duty rate as fact. All customs treatment is the responsibility of the importer and their appointed customs broker.