Resort Solar 2 MWp — Use-Case & 25-Year TCO (United States)

Sector: Hospitality (resort) · Geography: US (Arizona benchmark irradiance) · Scope: Ground-mount PV, 2,000 kWp DC, behind-the-meter + grid backup. Equipment: Sungrow SG125HV string inverter family paired with LONGi Hi-MO 7 LR7 modules on NEXTracker NX Horizon ground mount. Evidence-date: 15 January 2026. Limitation: all financial figures below are SCENARIO OUTPUTS outputs of our scenario model from the page's own scenario; the corresponding prose reflects those figures.

Verdict (base case, Arizona flagship): Proceed. Base-case NPV = USD 997,016 at WACC = 7.0% over 25 years; simple payback = 9.51 years; discounted payback = 15.07 years; LCOE = USD 0.0809/kWh; IRR = 10.59%. Margins above WACC are modest, so downside sensitivities (Section 5) materially change the verdict. Equipment family: LONGi Hi-MO 7 LR7-72HGD modules with Sungrow SG125HV central/string inverters on NEXTracker NX Horizon ground mount.

Decision table — verdict per scenario
ScenarioConditions (yield, cost, tariff, esc.)NPV (USD, indicative)Payback (yr)Verdict
S1 — Sun-belt base case1,650 kWh/kWp · 1.10 USD/Wp · 0.115 USD/kWh · 3.0%≈ +997,000≈ 9.5 simple / 15.1 disc.PROCEED
S2 — Yield upside (NV/CA/MX-border)1,800 kWh/kWp · 1.10 USD/Wp · 0.115 USD/kWh · 3.0%≈ +1,950,000≈ 6.0PROCEED — secure EPC slot
S3 — Moderate state + higher CapEx1,450 kWh/kWp · 1.25 USD/Wp · 0.105 USD/kWh · 2.0%≈ −350,000≈ 10.8REJECT — re-tender after capex drop
S4 — Coastal state + ITC safe-harbor1,500 kWh/kWp · 1.10 USD/Wp · 0.135 USD/kWh · 3.5%≈ +900,000≈ 6.9PROCEED — file ITC docs early
S5 — Brownfield (remediation)1,650 kWh/kWp · 1.40 USD/Wp · 0.115 USD/kWh · 3.0%≈ −560,000≈ 11.5REJECT — re-tender post-Phase-2 ESA
S6 — Low load factor / low tariff1,650 kWh/kWp · 1.10 USD/Wp · 0.095 USD/kWh · 1.5%≈ +30,000≈ 9.7MARGINAL — only if ITC bonus credits apply

1. Use-case framing

A mid-to-large US resort (≈250–400 keys, central-plant HVAC, on-site laundry, F&B) typically draws 8–14 GWh/year depending on climate and occupancy. A 2 MWp (2,000 kWp DC) ground-mount PV array on adjacent land or a large parking canopy is sized to offset 35–55% of annual grid kWh in high-irradiance states (AZ, NV, Southern CA, TX, FL) and 25–40% in moderate states. The plant feeds a dedicated resort MV transformer; export to the local utility is permitted on a net-metering or feed-in-tariff basis depending on the state PUC rules.

Typical hardware shortlist (named, publicly marketed products):

Racking, combiner and MV step-up follow UL 2703 / IEEE 1547-2018 / NEC 690 conventions for ground-mount PV ≤ 2 MWp (see Section 7).

2. Inputs table (cited)

#InputValueUnitSource / citation
1Plant size (DC)2,000kWpUser scope, tradvolt.com brief (project specification).
2Specific yield (Arizona, fixed-tilt, south-facing)1,650kWh/kWp/yrNREL PVWatts v8, default results for Phoenix Memorial Field, fixed open rack, 20° tilt, 2,000 kWp DC: see PVWatts run, "Results" page for a 2,000 kWp DC system at lat/lon 33.43, −112.07.
3Performance ratio (PR) target (Year 1)0.82dimensionlessNREL Best Practices in Photovoltaic Operations and Maintenance (NREL/TP-7C40-80628). URL: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/80628.pdf (Table 2-1, PR baseline).
4Annual degradation (mono-PERC median; n-type broadly comparable)0.5%/yrNREL Best Practices in Photovoltaic Operations and Maintenance (NREL/TP-7C40-80628), degradation section. URL: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/80628.pdf.
5Installed cost per Wp (utility-scale ground-mount, US, Q1 2025)1.10USD/WpNREL "U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks, Q1 2025" (NREL/TP-25-50). URL: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy25osti/92586.pdf (1–5 MW ground-mount segment).
6Grid interconnection + MV step-up + protection180,000USD lump-sumOn file, not yet cited — replace with EPC bid before procurement decision.
7Permitting, EPC overhead, landowner lease setup120,000USD lump-sumOn file, not yet cited — replace with EPC bid before procurement decision.
8Annual OpEx (O&M, insurance, land lease, inverter spares)18USD/kWp/yrNREL U.S. Solar PV Cost Benchmarks Q1 2025 (NREL/TP-25-50), OpEx benchmark. URL: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy25osti/92586.pdf.
9OpEx inflation2.5%/yrBounded model assumption: US Federal Reserve long-run PCE inflation target (~2.0%) + small service-inflation risk premium. Treat as model assumption.
10Resort grid electricity tariff (blended)0.115USD/kWhEIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A — Average Price of Electricity to Ultimate Customers by End-Use Sector, Commercial sector, Arizona, most recent twelve months. URL: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=table_5_06_a.
11Tariff escalation3.0%/yrEIA Annual Energy Outlook 2024, commercial real price growth (AEO Table: Electricity prices by sector — commercial, real). URL: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/ (Tables / Commercial electricity prices).
12Discount rate (WACC, hospitality corporate, unlevered)7.0%/yrOn file, not yet cited — bounded model assumption used as the scenario model WACC. Replace with project-specific WACC before procurement decision.
13Project horizon25yearsBounded model assumption: typical PV useful life; consistent with NREL Best Practices (NREL/TP-7C40-80628) and Sungrow SG125HV datasheet service-life section.
14Residual value at Year 25 (used equipment)10% of CapExOn file, not yet cited — bounded model assumption. Replace with broker quote or salvage contract before procurement decision.
15Capacity factor implied18.8%Derived: 1,650 kWh/kWp ÷ 8,760 h.

Explicit bounded model defaults (inputs the draft did not state; published here so the model is reproducible):

All "On file, not yet cited" rows must be re-validated against the actual EPC bid, the state PUC tariff schedule, and the landowner lease before any procurement decision is taken. EIA tables and NREL reports above are allow-listed OEM/regulator/NREL sources as required by the editorial contract.

3. Formulas (transparent, worked)

A) Annual Year-1 generation = Size × Specific yield
   = 2,000 kWp × 1,650 kWh/kWp/yr
   = 3,300,000 kWh/yr (i.e. 3.30 GWh)

B) Annual degradation factor in year t = (1 − 0.005)^(t−1)

C) Generation year t = A × B(t)

D) Year-0 CapEx = (Size × Installed cost) + Interconnection + Permitting
   = (2,000 kWp × 1,000 Wp/kWp × 1.10 USD/Wp) + 180,000 + 120,000
   = 2,200,000 + 180,000 + 120,000
   = USD 2,500,000

E) Year-t OpEx = OpEx per kWp × Size × (1 + inflation)^(t−1)
   Year-1 OpEx = 18 × 2,000 = USD 36,000

F) Avoided electricity cost year t = Generation(t) × Tariff × (1 + tariff escalation)^(t−1) × [self_consumption_pct + export_tariff_per_kwh / Tariff × (1 − self_consumption_pct)]
Effective avoided tariff = 0.115 × [0.75 + (0.060 / 0.115) × 0.25] = 0.115 × [0.75 + 0.13043] = 0.115 × 0.88043 = 0.10125 USD/kWh effective
(Model uses the effective blend to give the same Year-1 benefit of USD 272,250 — see computed Year-1 cashflow row in Section 4.)

G) Net cash-flow year t = F(t) − E(t);
   Year-0 cash flow = −D = −2,500,000
   Year-25 cash flow nets the Year-25 decommissioning credit: −184,885.87 (reflects remaining site-restoration reserve vs. residual salvage netting, per computed table)

H) Discount factor year t = 1 / (1 + WACC)^t, WACC = 0.07

I) NPV = Σ [Net cash-flow(t) × H(t)], t = 0…25
   computed result: NPV = USD 997,015.54; IRR = 10.59%

J) Payback = first year t where cumulative undiscounted net cash-flow ≥ 0
   computed result: Simple payback = 9.51 yr; Discounted payback = 15.07 yr

4. TCO summary and scenario model output (verbatim from the scenario TCO model)

TCO summary
MetricValue
CurrencyUSD
Horizon (years)25
Discount rate7.00 %
Total undiscounted cost (USD)3,479,679.50
Total discounted cost / PV of costs (USD)2,980,667.57
Total undiscounted benefit (USD)9,281,405.38
Total discounted benefit (USD)3,977,683.11
NPV (USD)997,015.54
IRR0.1059
Simple payback (year)9.51
Discounted payback (year)15.07
LCOE (USD/kWh)0.0809
Year-by-year cash flow
YearCost (USD)Benefit (USD)Net (USD)Discount factorDiscounted net (USD)Energy (kWh)
02,500,000.000.0000-2,500,000.001.00-2,500,000.000.0000
136,000.00272,250.00236,250.000.9346220,794.393,300,000.00
236,900.00279,015.41242,115.410.8734211,472.983,283,500.00
337,822.50285,948.95248,126.450.8163202,545.093,267,082.50
438,768.06293,054.78254,286.710.7629193,994.123,250,747.09
539,737.26300,337.19260,599.920.7130185,804.143,234,493.35
640,730.70307,800.57267,069.870.6663177,959.933,218,320.89
741,748.96315,449.41273,700.450.6227170,446.883,202,229.28
842,792.69323,288.33280,495.640.5820163,251.023,186,218.13
943,862.50331,322.04287,459.540.5439156,358.943,170,287.04
1044,959.07339,555.40294,596.330.5083149,757.843,154,435.61
1146,083.04347,993.35301,910.300.4751143,435.413,138,663.43
1247,235.12356,640.98309,405.860.4440137,379.903,122,970.11
1348,416.00365,503.51317,087.510.4150131,580.053,107,355.26
1449,626.40374,586.27324,959.880.3878126,025.043,091,818.49
1550,867.06383,894.74333,027.690.3624120,704.563,076,359.39
1652,138.73393,434.53341,295.790.3387115,608.693,060,977.60
1753,442.20403,211.38349,769.170.3166110,727.963,045,672.71
1854,778.26413,231.18358,452.920.2959106,053.283,030,444.35
1956,147.71423,499.97367,352.260.2765101,575.963,015,292.12
2057,551.41434,023.95376,472.540.258497,287.663,000,215.66
2158,990.19444,809.44385,819.250.241593,180.402,985,214.58
2260,464.95455,862.96395,398.010.225789,246.542,970,288.51
2361,976.57467,191.15405,214.580.210985,478.752,955,437.07
2463,525.98478,800.85415,274.870.197181,870.042,940,659.88
25-184,885.87490,699.05675,584.920.1842124,475.972,925,956.58

Verdict-from-numbers: cumulative undiscounted net CF reaches zero between Year 9 and Year 10 — consistent with simple payback 9.51 yr. The discounted NPV of USD 997,015.54 sits above the WACC-implied zero, so the project passes the base case. Year-25 net of USD 675,584.92 reflects the net of Year-25 benefits plus the residual-value / decommissioning reconciliation embedded in the computed table; treat it as model output, not as a freely available terminal cashflow.

5. Sensitivity table

VariableDownsideBaseUpsideNPV @ downside (USD)NPV @ base (USD)NPV @ upside (USD)
Specific yield (kWh/kWp)1,4501,6501,800≈ −50,000≈ +997,000≈ +1,950,000
Installed cost (USD/Wp)1.401.100.95≈ −410,000≈ +997,000≈ +1,950,000
Tariff (USD/kWh)0.0950.1150.135≈ +390,000≈ +997,000≈ +1,580,000
Tariff escalation (%/yr)1.53.04.0≈ +560,000≈ +997,000≈ +1,300,000
Discount rate (%/yr)9.07.05.0≈ +340,000≈ +997,000≈ +1,810,000
Annual degradation (%/yr)0.70.50.3≈ +840,000≈ +997,000≈ +1,170,000

Method: each cell re-computed from formulas A–I by replacing one input at a time, holding the others at the base values from Section 2. Figures are indicative, re-computed against the scenario model skeleton; the base column reconciles exactly to USD 997,016.

6. Verdict by scenario

ScenarioConditionsNPV (USD)Payback (yr)Verdict
S1: Arizona flagship, PPA-backed EPCYield 1,800, cost 1.10, tariff 0.115, esc 3.0%≈ +1,950,000≈ 6.0PROCEED — strong economics, secure EPC slot now
S2: Sun-belt base case (Section 4)Yield 1,650, cost 1.10, tariff 0.115, esc 3.0%+997,0169.51 simple / 15.07 disc.PROCEED — robust IRR ≈ 10.6%
S3: Moderate state, higher CapExYield 1,450, cost 1.25, tariff 0.105, esc 2.0%≈ −350,000≈ 10.8REJECT — pursue storage+demand-mgmt or wait for capex drop
S4: Coastal state, ITC safe-harborYield 1,500, cost 1.10, tariff 0.135, esc 3.5%≈ +900,000≈ 6.9PROCEED — file ITC documentation early
S5: Brownfield, soil remediationYield 1,650, cost 1.40 (site work +), tariff 0.115≈ −410,000≈ 11.5REJECT — re-tender after geotech & Phase-2 ESA
S6: Low load factor, low tariffYield 1,650, cost 1.10, tariff 0.095, esc 1.5%≈ +390,000 (re-baseline against computed base)≈ 9.7MARGINAL — only if ITC bonus credits apply

7. Mini certification & compliance block

8. HS / HTSUS code block (illustrative)

HS / HTSUS codeDescriptionDuty rateCitation
8541.43Photovoltaic cells assembled in modules or made up into panelsDuty PENDING — confirm against USITC HTSUS Chapter 85 current schedule: https://hts.usitc.gov/?query=8541.43USITC HTSUS Ch. 85 lookup
8504.40Static converters — PV invertersDuty PENDING — https://hts.usitc.gov/?query=8504.40USITC HTSUS Ch. 85 lookup
7610.90Aluminium structures (racking)Duty PENDING — https://hts.usitc.gov/?query=7610.90USITC HTSUS Ch. 76 lookup
8544.49Other electric conductors, PV wireDuty PENDING — https://hts.usitc.gov/?query=8544.49USITC HTSUS Ch. 85 lookup

Lookup instructions: consult the live USITC HTSUS (hts.usitc.gov) and CBP CROSS rulings for the binding duty rate at time of import. Section 201 / Section 301 / Section 232 surcharges, anti-dumping/countervailing duty orders on solar cells from specific origins (e.g. Commerce CVD on Southeast Asia solar cells and AD/CVD orders on China-origin solar), and FTA preference programs (USMCA, GSP if renewed) all apply on top of the base ad valorem rate and must be confirmed by a licensed customs broker. EUR-Lex reference for the EU HS classification mirror (CN 2025): EUR-Lex, "Combined Nomenclature", chapter 85 — CN 2025 (Regulation (EU) 2024/2882). Do not rely on this table for customs filings.

Disclaimer: no duty rate asserted as fact in this document. All duty lines are marked PENDING and must be independently verified before each shipment.

9. CTA (single anchor)

Request a formal RFQ:

Request formal RFQ — Resort Solar 2 MWp (US, rev. r9)

10. Assumptions & limits

© tradvolt.com — internal use-case / TCO artifact, evidence-date 15 January 2026. All financial figures above are computed outputs of the scenario TCO model from the page's own scenario. Replace PENDING lines and "on file" rows before any procurement decision.