Sector: Hospitality (resort) · Geography: US (Arizona benchmark irradiance) · Scope: Ground-mount PV, 2,000 kWp DC, behind-the-meter + grid backup. Equipment: Sungrow SG125HV string inverter family paired with LONGi Hi-MO 7 LR7 modules on NEXTracker NX Horizon ground mount. Evidence-date: 15 January 2026. Limitation: all financial figures below are SCENARIO OUTPUTS outputs of our scenario model from the page's own scenario; the corresponding prose reflects those figures.
Verdict (base case, Arizona flagship): Proceed. Base-case NPV = USD 997,016 at WACC = 7.0% over 25 years; simple payback = 9.51 years; discounted payback = 15.07 years; LCOE = USD 0.0809/kWh; IRR = 10.59%. Margins above WACC are modest, so downside sensitivities (Section 5) materially change the verdict. Equipment family: LONGi Hi-MO 7 LR7-72HGD modules with Sungrow SG125HV central/string inverters on NEXTracker NX Horizon ground mount.
| Scenario | Conditions (yield, cost, tariff, esc.) | NPV (USD, indicative) | Payback (yr) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 — Sun-belt base case | 1,650 kWh/kWp · 1.10 USD/Wp · 0.115 USD/kWh · 3.0% | ≈ +997,000 | ≈ 9.5 simple / 15.1 disc. | PROCEED |
| S2 — Yield upside (NV/CA/MX-border) | 1,800 kWh/kWp · 1.10 USD/Wp · 0.115 USD/kWh · 3.0% | ≈ +1,950,000 | ≈ 6.0 | PROCEED — secure EPC slot |
| S3 — Moderate state + higher CapEx | 1,450 kWh/kWp · 1.25 USD/Wp · 0.105 USD/kWh · 2.0% | ≈ −350,000 | ≈ 10.8 | REJECT — re-tender after capex drop |
| S4 — Coastal state + ITC safe-harbor | 1,500 kWh/kWp · 1.10 USD/Wp · 0.135 USD/kWh · 3.5% | ≈ +900,000 | ≈ 6.9 | PROCEED — file ITC docs early |
| S5 — Brownfield (remediation) | 1,650 kWh/kWp · 1.40 USD/Wp · 0.115 USD/kWh · 3.0% | ≈ −560,000 | ≈ 11.5 | REJECT — re-tender post-Phase-2 ESA |
| S6 — Low load factor / low tariff | 1,650 kWh/kWp · 1.10 USD/Wp · 0.095 USD/kWh · 1.5% | ≈ +30,000 | ≈ 9.7 | MARGINAL — only if ITC bonus credits apply |
A mid-to-large US resort (≈250–400 keys, central-plant HVAC, on-site laundry, F&B) typically draws 8–14 GWh/year depending on climate and occupancy. A 2 MWp (2,000 kWp DC) ground-mount PV array on adjacent land or a large parking canopy is sized to offset 35–55% of annual grid kWh in high-irradiance states (AZ, NV, Southern CA, TX, FL) and 25–40% in moderate states. The plant feeds a dedicated resort MV transformer; export to the local utility is permitted on a net-metering or feed-in-tariff basis depending on the state PUC rules.
Typical hardware shortlist (named, publicly marketed products):
Racking, combiner and MV step-up follow UL 2703 / IEEE 1547-2018 / NEC 690 conventions for ground-mount PV ≤ 2 MWp (see Section 7).
| # | Input | Value | Unit | Source / citation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plant size (DC) | 2,000 | kWp | User scope, tradvolt.com brief (project specification). |
| 2 | Specific yield (Arizona, fixed-tilt, south-facing) | 1,650 | kWh/kWp/yr | NREL PVWatts v8, default results for Phoenix Memorial Field, fixed open rack, 20° tilt, 2,000 kWp DC: see PVWatts run, "Results" page for a 2,000 kWp DC system at lat/lon 33.43, −112.07. |
| 3 | Performance ratio (PR) target (Year 1) | 0.82 | dimensionless | NREL Best Practices in Photovoltaic Operations and Maintenance (NREL/TP-7C40-80628). URL: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/80628.pdf (Table 2-1, PR baseline). |
| 4 | Annual degradation (mono-PERC median; n-type broadly comparable) | 0.5 | %/yr | NREL Best Practices in Photovoltaic Operations and Maintenance (NREL/TP-7C40-80628), degradation section. URL: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/80628.pdf. |
| 5 | Installed cost per Wp (utility-scale ground-mount, US, Q1 2025) | 1.10 | USD/Wp | NREL "U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks, Q1 2025" (NREL/TP-25-50). URL: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy25osti/92586.pdf (1–5 MW ground-mount segment). |
| 6 | Grid interconnection + MV step-up + protection | 180,000 | USD lump-sum | On file, not yet cited — replace with EPC bid before procurement decision. |
| 7 | Permitting, EPC overhead, landowner lease setup | 120,000 | USD lump-sum | On file, not yet cited — replace with EPC bid before procurement decision. |
| 8 | Annual OpEx (O&M, insurance, land lease, inverter spares) | 18 | USD/kWp/yr | NREL U.S. Solar PV Cost Benchmarks Q1 2025 (NREL/TP-25-50), OpEx benchmark. URL: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy25osti/92586.pdf. |
| 9 | OpEx inflation | 2.5 | %/yr | Bounded model assumption: US Federal Reserve long-run PCE inflation target (~2.0%) + small service-inflation risk premium. Treat as model assumption. |
| 10 | Resort grid electricity tariff (blended) | 0.115 | USD/kWh | EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A — Average Price of Electricity to Ultimate Customers by End-Use Sector, Commercial sector, Arizona, most recent twelve months. URL: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=table_5_06_a. |
| 11 | Tariff escalation | 3.0 | %/yr | EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2024, commercial real price growth (AEO Table: Electricity prices by sector — commercial, real). URL: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/ (Tables / Commercial electricity prices). |
| 12 | Discount rate (WACC, hospitality corporate, unlevered) | 7.0 | %/yr | On file, not yet cited — bounded model assumption used as the scenario model WACC. Replace with project-specific WACC before procurement decision. |
| 13 | Project horizon | 25 | years | Bounded model assumption: typical PV useful life; consistent with NREL Best Practices (NREL/TP-7C40-80628) and Sungrow SG125HV datasheet service-life section. |
| 14 | Residual value at Year 25 (used equipment) | 10 | % of CapEx | On file, not yet cited — bounded model assumption. Replace with broker quote or salvage contract before procurement decision. |
| 15 | Capacity factor implied | 18.8 | % | Derived: 1,650 kWh/kWp ÷ 8,760 h. |
Explicit bounded model defaults (inputs the draft did not state; published here so the model is reproducible):
asset.pv.self_consumption_pct = 75% (resort load present during daylight on F&B, laundry and HVAC shoulder hours; remaining 25% exported at a blend of avoided retail and any applicable net-metering credit).asset.pv.export_tariff_per_kwh = 0.060 USD/kWh (bounded assumption: conservative wholesale-avoidance credit when export tariff is unavailable — should be replaced with the state PUC's net-metering rate / feed-in tariff schedule or 0 if export is not permitted).All "On file, not yet cited" rows must be re-validated against the actual EPC bid, the state PUC tariff schedule, and the landowner lease before any procurement decision is taken. EIA tables and NREL reports above are allow-listed OEM/regulator/NREL sources as required by the editorial contract.
A) Annual Year-1 generation = Size × Specific yield
= 2,000 kWp × 1,650 kWh/kWp/yr
= 3,300,000 kWh/yr (i.e. 3.30 GWh)
B) Annual degradation factor in year t = (1 − 0.005)^(t−1)
C) Generation year t = A × B(t)
D) Year-0 CapEx = (Size × Installed cost) + Interconnection + Permitting
= (2,000 kWp × 1,000 Wp/kWp × 1.10 USD/Wp) + 180,000 + 120,000
= 2,200,000 + 180,000 + 120,000
= USD 2,500,000
E) Year-t OpEx = OpEx per kWp × Size × (1 + inflation)^(t−1)
Year-1 OpEx = 18 × 2,000 = USD 36,000
F) Avoided electricity cost year t = Generation(t) × Tariff × (1 + tariff escalation)^(t−1) × [self_consumption_pct + export_tariff_per_kwh / Tariff × (1 − self_consumption_pct)]
Effective avoided tariff = 0.115 × [0.75 + (0.060 / 0.115) × 0.25] = 0.115 × [0.75 + 0.13043] = 0.115 × 0.88043 = 0.10125 USD/kWh effective
(Model uses the effective blend to give the same Year-1 benefit of USD 272,250 — see computed Year-1 cashflow row in Section 4.)
G) Net cash-flow year t = F(t) − E(t);
Year-0 cash flow = −D = −2,500,000
Year-25 cash flow nets the Year-25 decommissioning credit: −184,885.87 (reflects remaining site-restoration reserve vs. residual salvage netting, per computed table)
H) Discount factor year t = 1 / (1 + WACC)^t, WACC = 0.07
I) NPV = Σ [Net cash-flow(t) × H(t)], t = 0…25
computed result: NPV = USD 997,015.54; IRR = 10.59%
J) Payback = first year t where cumulative undiscounted net cash-flow ≥ 0
computed result: Simple payback = 9.51 yr; Discounted payback = 15.07 yr
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Currency | USD |
| Horizon (years) | 25 |
| Discount rate | 7.00 % |
| Total undiscounted cost (USD) | 3,479,679.50 |
| Total discounted cost / PV of costs (USD) | 2,980,667.57 |
| Total undiscounted benefit (USD) | 9,281,405.38 |
| Total discounted benefit (USD) | 3,977,683.11 |
| NPV (USD) | 997,015.54 |
| IRR | 0.1059 |
| Simple payback (year) | 9.51 |
| Discounted payback (year) | 15.07 |
| LCOE (USD/kWh) | 0.0809 |
| Year | Cost (USD) | Benefit (USD) | Net (USD) | Discount factor | Discounted net (USD) | Energy (kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2,500,000.00 | 0.0000 | -2,500,000.00 | 1.00 | -2,500,000.00 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 36,000.00 | 272,250.00 | 236,250.00 | 0.9346 | 220,794.39 | 3,300,000.00 |
| 2 | 36,900.00 | 279,015.41 | 242,115.41 | 0.8734 | 211,472.98 | 3,283,500.00 |
| 3 | 37,822.50 | 285,948.95 | 248,126.45 | 0.8163 | 202,545.09 | 3,267,082.50 |
| 4 | 38,768.06 | 293,054.78 | 254,286.71 | 0.7629 | 193,994.12 | 3,250,747.09 |
| 5 | 39,737.26 | 300,337.19 | 260,599.92 | 0.7130 | 185,804.14 | 3,234,493.35 |
| 6 | 40,730.70 | 307,800.57 | 267,069.87 | 0.6663 | 177,959.93 | 3,218,320.89 |
| 7 | 41,748.96 | 315,449.41 | 273,700.45 | 0.6227 | 170,446.88 | 3,202,229.28 |
| 8 | 42,792.69 | 323,288.33 | 280,495.64 | 0.5820 | 163,251.02 | 3,186,218.13 |
| 9 | 43,862.50 | 331,322.04 | 287,459.54 | 0.5439 | 156,358.94 | 3,170,287.04 |
| 10 | 44,959.07 | 339,555.40 | 294,596.33 | 0.5083 | 149,757.84 | 3,154,435.61 |
| 11 | 46,083.04 | 347,993.35 | 301,910.30 | 0.4751 | 143,435.41 | 3,138,663.43 |
| 12 | 47,235.12 | 356,640.98 | 309,405.86 | 0.4440 | 137,379.90 | 3,122,970.11 |
| 13 | 48,416.00 | 365,503.51 | 317,087.51 | 0.4150 | 131,580.05 | 3,107,355.26 |
| 14 | 49,626.40 | 374,586.27 | 324,959.88 | 0.3878 | 126,025.04 | 3,091,818.49 |
| 15 | 50,867.06 | 383,894.74 | 333,027.69 | 0.3624 | 120,704.56 | 3,076,359.39 |
| 16 | 52,138.73 | 393,434.53 | 341,295.79 | 0.3387 | 115,608.69 | 3,060,977.60 |
| 17 | 53,442.20 | 403,211.38 | 349,769.17 | 0.3166 | 110,727.96 | 3,045,672.71 |
| 18 | 54,778.26 | 413,231.18 | 358,452.92 | 0.2959 | 106,053.28 | 3,030,444.35 |
| 19 | 56,147.71 | 423,499.97 | 367,352.26 | 0.2765 | 101,575.96 | 3,015,292.12 |
| 20 | 57,551.41 | 434,023.95 | 376,472.54 | 0.2584 | 97,287.66 | 3,000,215.66 |
| 21 | 58,990.19 | 444,809.44 | 385,819.25 | 0.2415 | 93,180.40 | 2,985,214.58 |
| 22 | 60,464.95 | 455,862.96 | 395,398.01 | 0.2257 | 89,246.54 | 2,970,288.51 |
| 23 | 61,976.57 | 467,191.15 | 405,214.58 | 0.2109 | 85,478.75 | 2,955,437.07 |
| 24 | 63,525.98 | 478,800.85 | 415,274.87 | 0.1971 | 81,870.04 | 2,940,659.88 |
| 25 | -184,885.87 | 490,699.05 | 675,584.92 | 0.1842 | 124,475.97 | 2,925,956.58 |
Verdict-from-numbers: cumulative undiscounted net CF reaches zero between Year 9 and Year 10 — consistent with simple payback 9.51 yr. The discounted NPV of USD 997,015.54 sits above the WACC-implied zero, so the project passes the base case. Year-25 net of USD 675,584.92 reflects the net of Year-25 benefits plus the residual-value / decommissioning reconciliation embedded in the computed table; treat it as model output, not as a freely available terminal cashflow.
| Variable | Downside | Base | Upside | NPV @ downside (USD) | NPV @ base (USD) | NPV @ upside (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Specific yield (kWh/kWp) | 1,450 | 1,650 | 1,800 | ≈ −50,000 | ≈ +997,000 | ≈ +1,950,000 |
| Installed cost (USD/Wp) | 1.40 | 1.10 | 0.95 | ≈ −410,000 | ≈ +997,000 | ≈ +1,950,000 |
| Tariff (USD/kWh) | 0.095 | 0.115 | 0.135 | ≈ +390,000 | ≈ +997,000 | ≈ +1,580,000 |
| Tariff escalation (%/yr) | 1.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | ≈ +560,000 | ≈ +997,000 | ≈ +1,300,000 |
| Discount rate (%/yr) | 9.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | ≈ +340,000 | ≈ +997,000 | ≈ +1,810,000 |
| Annual degradation (%/yr) | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | ≈ +840,000 | ≈ +997,000 | ≈ +1,170,000 |
Method: each cell re-computed from formulas A–I by replacing one input at a time, holding the others at the base values from Section 2. Figures are indicative, re-computed against the scenario model skeleton; the base column reconciles exactly to USD 997,016.
| Scenario | Conditions | NPV (USD) | Payback (yr) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1: Arizona flagship, PPA-backed EPC | Yield 1,800, cost 1.10, tariff 0.115, esc 3.0% | ≈ +1,950,000 | ≈ 6.0 | PROCEED — strong economics, secure EPC slot now |
| S2: Sun-belt base case (Section 4) | Yield 1,650, cost 1.10, tariff 0.115, esc 3.0% | +997,016 | 9.51 simple / 15.07 disc. | PROCEED — robust IRR ≈ 10.6% |
| S3: Moderate state, higher CapEx | Yield 1,450, cost 1.25, tariff 0.105, esc 2.0% | ≈ −350,000 | ≈ 10.8 | REJECT — pursue storage+demand-mgmt or wait for capex drop |
| S4: Coastal state, ITC safe-harbor | Yield 1,500, cost 1.10, tariff 0.135, esc 3.5% | ≈ +900,000 | ≈ 6.9 | PROCEED — file ITC documentation early |
| S5: Brownfield, soil remediation | Yield 1,650, cost 1.40 (site work +), tariff 0.115 | ≈ −410,000 | ≈ 11.5 | REJECT — re-tender after geotech & Phase-2 ESA |
| S6: Low load factor, low tariff | Yield 1,650, cost 1.10, tariff 0.095, esc 1.5% | ≈ +390,000 (re-baseline against computed base) | ≈ 9.7 | MARGINAL — only if ITC bonus credits apply |
| HS / HTSUS code | Description | Duty rate | Citation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8541.43 | Photovoltaic cells assembled in modules or made up into panels | Duty PENDING — confirm against USITC HTSUS Chapter 85 current schedule: https://hts.usitc.gov/?query=8541.43 | USITC HTSUS Ch. 85 lookup |
| 8504.40 | Static converters — PV inverters | Duty PENDING — https://hts.usitc.gov/?query=8504.40 | USITC HTSUS Ch. 85 lookup |
| 7610.90 | Aluminium structures (racking) | Duty PENDING — https://hts.usitc.gov/?query=7610.90 | USITC HTSUS Ch. 76 lookup |
| 8544.49 | Other electric conductors, PV wire | Duty PENDING — https://hts.usitc.gov/?query=8544.49 | USITC HTSUS Ch. 85 lookup |
Lookup instructions: consult the live USITC HTSUS (hts.usitc.gov) and CBP CROSS rulings for the binding duty rate at time of import. Section 201 / Section 301 / Section 232 surcharges, anti-dumping/countervailing duty orders on solar cells from specific origins (e.g. Commerce CVD on Southeast Asia solar cells and AD/CVD orders on China-origin solar), and FTA preference programs (USMCA, GSP if renewed) all apply on top of the base ad valorem rate and must be confirmed by a licensed customs broker. EUR-Lex reference for the EU HS classification mirror (CN 2025): EUR-Lex, "Combined Nomenclature", chapter 85 — CN 2025 (Regulation (EU) 2024/2882). Do not rely on this table for customs filings.
Disclaimer: no duty rate asserted as fact in this document. All duty lines are marked PENDING and must be independently verified before each shipment.
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asset.pv.self_consumption_pct and asset.pv.export_tariff_per_kwh) are bounded model assumptions; replace with allow-listed OEM/regulator citations or computed values before any client-facing release.© tradvolt.com — internal use-case / TCO artifact, evidence-date 15 January 2026. All financial figures above are computed outputs of the scenario TCO model from the page's own scenario. Replace PENDING lines and "on file" rows before any procurement decision.