UK Bakery Chain — 500 kWh ESS TCO Use Case

Verdict (computed base case, 10-year horizon, 8.00% discount rate, GBP): NPV = −£212,383.51; simple payback = none within 10 years; discounted payback = none within 10 years; LCOS = £0.4072/kWh. Equipment reference: CATL LFP 280 Ah prismatic cells housed in a Sungrow ST2752UX commercial liquid-cooled cabinet with Huawei Smart PCS reference architecture. Location: United Kingdom (GB distribution network, half-hourly settlement). Evidence date: model run 2024-12 on 2024-Q4 inputs. Limitation: this page presents the scenario TCO only; no UKCA / CE certificate, no UN 38.3 test summary, and no IEC / BS EN certificate of conformity is presented here — none should be inferred from this page.

Decision Table

1. Equipment Reference (real, publicly marketed models)

Equipment naming above identifies the publicly marketed product family only. This page does NOT present any UKCA certificate, CE Declaration of Conformity, UN 38.3 test summary, IEC 62619 / IEC 63056 CB certificate, or BS EN 50549 / G99 type-test certificate. Any limits on torque, state-of-charge window, voltage range, or round-trip efficiency used below must be confirmed against the OEM installation and operation manual revision supplied with the specific serial-numbered unit at delivery.

2. Scope & Approach

Scenario: a 500 kWh usable / 250 kW commercial LFP battery energy storage system (BESS) deployed at a UK bakery chain to clip morning oven-driven peak demand and to enable a limited amount of load shifting on tariff differential. The model treats one daily equivalent cycle with weekend and seasonal derating (≈ 300 cycles/yr), 90% depth-of-discharge (model assumption), 88% round-trip efficiency, a 10-year horizon, and an 8.00% real discount rate. All figures are in GBP, undiscounted unless stated. The financial figures in §4 and §5 are copied verbatim from the scenario model output; the prose around them is descriptive only.

3. Inputs Table (named, bounded)

3.1 Capex benchmark note

BloombergNEF 2024 commercial LFP turnkey benchmark range: £420–£560/kWh. Midpoint = £490/kWh. Because no public source for a small commercial-cabinet turnkey band was found, the model uses £280,000 (£560/kWh applied to the 500 kWh base) as a conservative capex ceiling; this is a model assumption, not a sourced figure. Buyers should request a fixed quote from a named supplier.

3.2 Demand midpoint of range

Working demand range: £45–£85/kW/yr. Midpoint = (45 + 85)/2 = £65/kW/yr. Used directly as d = 65. Unit provenance: GBP per kW of half-hourly metered maximum demand per year.

3.3 Energy midpoint of range

Working energy range: 21–28 p/kWh. Midpoint = (21 + 28)/2 = 24.5 p/kWh = £0.245/kWh. Used directly as p = 0.245.

4. TCO Summary (computed, copy verbatim)

5. Year-by-Year Cash Flow (computed, copy verbatim)

Scenario model convention: "Cost" = positive cash outflow in the year (Capex at Year 0, Opex at Year 1+); "Benefit" = positive cash inflow (avoided energy and demand costs). "Net" = Benefit − Cost (positive = net cash inflow). "Discount factor" = 1/(1+r)^t with r = 0.08. "Energy" = modelled kWh discharged in the year, net of degradation applied to the dischargeable energy base.

5.1 Reading the table

• PV of costs = £341,677.38 (matches the table exactly, year 0 + PV of Year 1–10 Opex escalated at 2%/yr and discounted at 8%/yr).
• PV of benefits = £129,293.86. NPV = PV(benefits) − PV(costs) = −£212,383.51 (matches the TCO summary).
• LCOS = £0.4072/kWh as published by the scenario model on its stated denominator (the same convention used in §4 of this page). The alternative PV-of-costs / total-kWh-discharged cross-check (341,677.38 / 1,234,758.56 ≈ £0.2767/kWh) is shown here only as a PV-based sanity figure; the computed LCOS used on this page is £0.4072/kWh from the scenario model.

6. Sensitivity (formula-based, indicative)

Sensitivity is recomputed by holding the formula TCO = Capex + Σ Opex_t/(1+r)^t − Σ (Benefit_t)/(1+r)^t constant and varying Capex, cycles C, and tariff p. Where the computed sensitivity row in the model differs from a hand-derivation of the same inputs (e.g. because degradation is honoured in the model but not in the simple formula), the computed row is the computed number for this page.

6.1 S7 recomputation trace (~£199,310)

S_e = 500 × 240 × 0.88 × 0.60 × 0.196 = 12,418.944 GBP/yr. S_d = 9,750 GBP/yr. S = 22,168.944 GBP/yr. Total Savings 10 yr (simple, no escalation) = 221,689.44 GBP. TCO_nom (simple) = 336,000 + 85,000 − 221,689.44 = 199,310.56 ≈ £199,310.

6.2 S8 recomputation trace (~−£67,920)

S_e = 500 × 360 × 0.88 × 0.60 × 0.294 = 27,941.76 GBP/yr. S_d = 9,750 GBP/yr. S = 37,691.76 GBP/yr. Total Savings 10 yr (simple) = 376,917.60 GBP. TCO_nom (simple) = 224,000 + 85,000 − 376,917.60 = −67,917.60 ≈ −£67,920. (Negative TCO_nom = net positive cash position.)

7. HS / Commodity Code Lookup

Cross-check guidance: the UK Global Tariff replaced the EU CET on 1 Jan 2021; EU rates are not computed for GB import declarations. Use the UK Trade Tariff look-up (commodity code → "UK import duties" tab → "measures") and the UK Trade Tariff Volume 3 for binding interpretative notes. For EU export side, consult the EU TARIC consultation. For origin and preferential treatment consult the gov.uk rules of origin guidance. For air transport of lithium cells, consult ICAO Dangerous Goods and IATA DGR.

8. Compliance Touchpoints (no certificate presented on this page)

9. CTAs

10. Allow-listed Source URLs cited on this page

• TradVolt RFQ form: https://tradvolt.com/rfq/
• Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 — EU Battery Regulation: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2023/1542/oj
• EU TARIC consultation: https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/taric_consultation.jsp?Lang=en
• UK Global Tariff look-up: https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/
• UK Trade Tariff — 8504 40 00 00: https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/commodities/8504400000
• UK Trade Tariff — 8507 60 00 00: https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/commodities/8507600000
• UK Trade Tariff — 8537 10 00 00: https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/commodities/8537100000
• gov.uk rules of origin guidance: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/rules-of-origin
• gov.uk UKCA marking guidance: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/using-the-ukca-marking
• UK Trade Tariff Volume 3 (interpretative notes): https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-trade-tariff-volume-3-for-trade-tariff-users
• UN Manual of Tests and Criteria (UN 38.3; ST/SG/AC.10/11/Rev.7, Part III, 38.3): https://unece.org/transport/dangerous-goods/un-manual-tests-and-criteria
• ICAO Dangerous Goods: https://www.icao.int/safety/dangerousgoods/Pages/default.aspx
• IATA Dangerous Goods Regulations (DGR): https://www.iata.org/en/programs/cargo/dgr/
• IEC 62619:2022 ed2 — secondary lithium cells and batteries for industrial applications, TC 21/SC 21A: https://webstore.iec.ch/en/publication/64073
• IEC 63056:2020 — secondary lithium cells and batteries for stationary/ESS, to 1500 V DC: https://webstore.iec.ch/en/publication/29224
• IEC 62485-5:2020 — safe operation of stationary lithium-ion batteries, TC 21: https://webstore.iec.ch/en/publication/29086
• IEC 62109-1:2010 — safety of power converters for PV power systems, Part 1, TC 82: https://webstore.iec.ch/en/publication/6470
• IEC 62109-2:2011 — safety of power converters for PV power systems, Part 2 (inverters), TC 82: https://webstore.iec.ch/en/publication/6471
• IEC Webstore (other standards catalogue): https://webstore.iec.ch/
• ENA G99 documents (BS EN 50549 implementation): https://www.ena-eng.org/eng/regulatory-documents/
• UL 1973 — Batteries for Use in Stationary and Motive Auxiliary Power Applications: https://www.shopulstandards.com/ProductDetail.aspx?productid=UL1973
• NFPA 855 — Standard for the Installation of Stationary Energy Storage Systems: https://www.nfpa.org/codes-and-standards/nfpa-855-standard-development/855
• Clean Energy Council approved batteries list (AU): https://cleanenergycouncil.org.au/industry-programs/products-program/batteries
• Clean Energy Council Products Program hub (AU): https://cleanenergycouncil.org.au/industry-programs/products-program
• MGN 550 (M+F) Amendment 1 — marine lithium-ion battery guidance (UK MCA): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/mgn-550-mf-amendment-1-electrical-installations-guidance-for-safe-design-installation-and-operation-of-lithium-ion-batteries
• CATL energy storage landing: https://www.catl.com/en/ess/
• Sungrow corporate landing: https://www.sungrowpower.com/en
• Sungrow ST2752UX product page: https://www.sungrowpower.com/en/products/Utility-Energy-Storage-System/ST2752UX
• Huawei Digital Power official about page: https://digitalpower.huawei.com/en/about

11. Model Defaults (bounded assumptions, no external citation)

• residual_value.amount = 0.00 GBP at end of horizon (assumption)
• residual_value.year = 10 (assumption)
• asset.ess.degradation_pct_per_year = 2.0% of nameplate usable energy (assumption, bounded by typical LFP commercial cabinet ageing; confirm against OEM warranty curve for the specific cabinet delivered)
• asset.ess.value_per_kwh_discharged = 0.245 GBP/kWh (assumption; equals the import tariff p used for energy savings)
• asset.ess.charge_cost_per_kwh = 0.000 GBP/kWh (explicit bounded default — energy benefit is computed on discharged kWh only; charging cost is not double-counted because v = import tariff p)

End of use case. computed figures in §4 and §5 are computed for this scenario; the sensitivity table in §6 shows S7 and S8 recomputation traces on the simple formula and notes that computed S1–S6 sensitivities are not modelled on this page. The base-case NPV of −£212,383.51 means that on these declared inputs the project does not pay back within 10 years.