tradvolt.com › Use cases › Mall ESS 2 MWh ZA (R9)
Equipment: CATL EnerC L-C030P liquid-cooled LFP container (2 units in parallel) + Sungrow ST2752UX PCS. Location: ZA, Eskom Megaflex point of connection. Horizon: 10 yr. Discount rate 12.00%. Evidence date: 2026-04-12. Limitation: all cash-flow inputs are bounded model defaults (see §2.3); no OEM quote, Eskom invoice or SARS duty pull has been issued for this specific mall.
Reject. For the scenario on this page — a 2 MWh / 1 MW CATL EnerC + Sungrow ST2752UX BESS at a South African regional shopping mall under the Eskom Megaflex tariff — the 10-year, 12% discount-rate model returns NPV = −28,967,047.02 ZAR, LCOS = 10.21 ZAR/kWh, and no payback within 10 yr on either a simple or discounted basis (simple payback = —, discounted payback = —, IRR = −0.7656). Decision table below. Equipment, location, horizon and evidence date are stated above; the only model-default inputs the draft did not specify are called out as explicit bounded assumptions in §2.3.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Currency | ZAR |
| Horizon (years) | 10 |
| Discount rate | 12.00 % |
| Total undiscounted cost (ZAR) | 40,467,933.88 |
| Total discounted cost / PV of costs (ZAR) | 34,848,415.86 |
| Total undiscounted benefit (ZAR) | 10,172,528.84 |
| Total discounted benefit (ZAR) | 5,881,368.83 |
| NPV (ZAR) | -28,967,047.02 |
| IRR | -0.7656 |
| Simple payback (year) | — |
| Discounted payback (year) | — |
| LCOS (ZAR/kWh) | 10.21 |
| Year | Cost (ZAR) | Benefit (ZAR) | Net (ZAR) | Discount factor | Discounted net (ZAR) | Energy (kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 29,820,000.00 | 0.0000 | -29,820,000.00 | 1.00 | -29,820,000.00 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 420,000.00 | 1,137,000.00 | 717,000.00 | 0.8929 | 640,178.57 | 660,000.00 |
| 2 | 445,200.00 | 1,108,575.00 | 663,375.00 | 0.7972 | 528,838.49 | 643,500.00 |
| 3 | 471,912.00 | 1,080,860.62 | 608,948.62 | 0.7118 | 433,437.60 | 627,412.50 |
| 4 | 500,226.72 | 1,053,839.11 | 553,612.39 | 0.6355 | 351,830.68 | 611,727.19 |
| 5 | 530,240.32 | 1,027,493.13 | 497,252.81 | 0.5674 | 282,154.60 | 596,434.01 |
| 6 | 562,054.74 | 1,001,805.80 | 439,751.06 | 0.5066 | 222,791.57 | 581,523.16 |
| 7 | 595,778.03 | 976,760.66 | 380,982.63 | 0.4523 | 172,337.19 | 566,985.08 |
| 8 | 5,743,524.71 | 952,341.64 | -4,791,183.07 | 0.4039 | -1,935,078.48 | 552,810.45 |
| 9 | 669,416.19 | 928,533.10 | 259,116.91 | 0.3606 | 93,440.16 | 538,990.19 |
| 10 | 709,581.16 | 905,319.77 | 195,738.61 | 0.3220 | 63,022.59 | 525,515.44 |
Each input row states its source; bounded model defaults are marked as such and listed in section 2.3. Bounded model defaults the draft did not state are listed in §2.3.
| Symbol | Meaning | Value | Unit | Source / URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E | Usable DC energy (2 × CATL EnerC L-C030P) | 2,000 | kWh | CATL energy storage landing — EnerC L-C030P family; 1,032 kWh per L-C030P, 2 units in parallel, 90% DoD applied (model assumption). |
| P | PCS AC rating (Sungrow ST2752UX, derated) | 1,000 | kW | Sungrow ST2752UX product page (pairs with SG3150/4400UD-MV inverter; configured to 1 MW in this scope). |
| ηRT | Round-trip efficiency (DC-coupled, containerised) | 0.88 | pu | CATL energy storage landing × Sungrow ST2752UX product page — PCS efficiency (model assumption). |
| DoD | Depth-of-discharge limit (LFP warranty window) | 0.90 | pu | model assumption (bounded 0.85–1.00). |
| Neq | Equivalent full cycles per year | 330 | cycles/yr | model assumption — 1 cycle/day, 330 operating days (mall closed 35 days). Bounded: 280–400. |
| tpeak | Annual peak window (weekday 17:00–21:00) | 4 | hr/day | Eskom tariffs and charges hub — Megaflex Time-of-Use peak window definition. |
| Cpeak | Mall ToU peak tariff (Eskom Megaflex, ZA) | 3.20 | ZAR/kWh | Eskom tariffs and charges hub — Megaflex active-peak energy charge, VAT excl. |
| Coff | Off-peak / standard tariff (Eskom Megaflex) | 1.30 | ZAR/kWh | Eskom tariffs and charges hub — Megaflex standard/off-peak energy charge, VAT excl. |
| Cdemand | Network access / demand charge avoided | 120 | ZAR/kW/mo | Eskom tariffs and charges hub — Megaflex network access charge component, indicative. |
| Vout | Outage ride-through value (spinning-reserve proxy) | 0.45 | ZAR/kWh | model assumption — bounded 0.20–0.70. No published Eskom/Municipal proxy rate exists for <100 kW ride-through; treat as model default. |
| &Dgr; | Tariff drift (nominal) | 0.06 | %/yr | model assumption — bounded 4–8% per NERSA MYPD submissions. |
| WACC | Discount rate | 0.12 | %/yr | model assumption — ZA commercial BESS WACC typical range 9–15%. |
| CapExkWh | Turnkey CapEx per kWh usable (CATL EnerC + Sungrow ST2752UX) | 14,200 | ZAR/kWh | CATL energy storage landing + Sungrow ST2752UX product page + IEA Li-ion BESS LCOE pack; figure is the model-derived landed-cost input, not a tradvolt quote. |
| OpExfix | Fixed O&M per kW-year | 420 | ZAR/kW/yr | model assumption — bounded 300–600 ZAR/kW/yr. |
| OpExvar | Variable O&M per MWh discharged | 35 | ZAR/MWh | model assumption — bounded 20–60 ZAR/MWh. |
| Augy | Battery augmentation year | 8 | yr | model assumption — warranty-driven augmentation staged at year 8 for ZA mall duty. |
| Augpct | Augmentation as % of original CapExkWh | 0.18 | pu | model assumption — bounded 0.15–0.22 (one-string cell replacement at year 8). |
The model assumes a constant annual capacity fade of 2.50 %/yr in usable energy, applied to discharge energy from year 2 onwards. This is a model default, not an OEM-quoted figure, and is bounded 1.50–3.00 %/yr.
The model applies a residual_value.amount of 0 ZAR at residual_value.year 10 (end of horizon). This is an explicit bounded assumption (range 0–4,000,000 ZAR) and is one of the material reasons the 10-year NPV does not recover.
The year-by-year Cost, Benefit, Net, Discount factor, Discounted net and Energy columns reconcile to the COMPUTED TABLES above. The 10-year PV of costs is 34,848,415.86 ZAR, PV of benefits 5,881,368.83 ZAR, NPV = −28,967,047.02 ZAR.
The COMPUTED TABLES above are the only mathematics in this page. The figures in this section are illustrative directions of effect, not outputs of the scenario model.
| Tariff Δ (ZAR/kWh) | Cycles | DoD | WACC | NPV direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | 330 | 0.90 | 12% | more negative than base |
| 1.90 | 330 | 0.90 | 12% | base — NPV = −28,967,047 ZAR |
| 2.30 | 330 | 0.90 | 12% | less negative than base |
| 1.90 | 400 | 0.90 | 12% | less negative than base |
| 1.90 | 330 | 1.00 | 12% | less negative than base |
| 1.90 | 330 | 0.90 | 9% | less negative than base |
| 1.90 | 330 | 0.90 | 15% | more negative than base |
At the base scenario the NPV remains negative because CapEx at 14,200 ZAR/kWh exceeds what the bundled ZA mall revenue stack can amortise within the 10-year horizon at the stated discount rate, given the year-8 augmentation, decommission reserve and zero residual value.
| Scenario | Revenue stack | 10-yr NPV (ZAR) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base (peak + demand + outage) | Rarb + Rdc + Rout | −28,967,047.02 | Reject — no payback within horizon. |
To flip the verdict positive within 10 yr at 12% WACC, one of the following must be realised jointly: (i) turnkey CapExkWh ≤ 9,500 ZAR/kWh, or (ii) tariff delta sustained ≥ 2.50 ZAR/kWh combined with residual_value.amount ≥ 4,000,000 ZAR at year 10, or (iii) revenue from wheeling, ancillary services (FFP/AGC) or a capacity market layered on top of the Eskom Megaflex arbitrage stream. None of these are within the scenario on this page.
| Standard | Document | Scope note |
|---|---|---|
| IEC 62619:2022 ed2 (secondary Li-ion industrial cells, incl. ESS) | IEC 62619:2022 — IEC Webstore | CATL EnerC L-C030P cells: test report to be supplied per shipment. |
| IEC 62485-5:2020 (safe operation of stationary Li-ion batteries) | IEC 62485-5:2020 — IEC Webstore | Installation / operating envelope for stationary Li-ion. |
| IEC 63056:2020 (ESS lithium battery safety to 1500 V DC) | IEC 63056:2020 — IEC Webstore | Builds on IEC 62619 for HESS/PV/large on-off-grid storage. |
| UN 38.3 (transport of lithium batteries) | UN Manual of Tests and Criteria (UN 38.3; ST/SG/AC.10/11/Rev.7) | Mandatory for sea/air import into ZA. |
| SANS/IEC 62619 (ZA adoption) | SABS standards portal (SANS 62619 adopt) | Verify SANS adoption number at RFQ. |
| NRCS Letter of Authority (compulsory electrotechnical specs) | NRCS South Africa portal — LOA per VC 8055 | 3-yr validity; SARS import control linkage. |
| NERSA license (reseller / distributor) | NERSA electricity pricing and tariffs | Counterparty-driven; customer/offtake entity to confirm. |
| OHS Act, Construction Reg 2014 (site install) | OHS Act — South African Government | EPC scope. |
| HS heading | Description | ZA duty rate | Source / URL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8507.60 | Lithium-ion accumulators (cells & modules) — CATL EnerC L-C030P rack | PENDING — lookup on day of import | SARS Customs & Excise Tariff portal — see Schedules to the Customs and Excise Act 1964 at SARS primary legislation schedules. |
| 8504.40 | Static converters (PCS/inverter) — Sungrow ST2752UX | PENDING — lookup on day of import | SARS Customs & Excise Tariff portal. |
| 8537.10 | Boards/panels for electric control (BMS, switchgear) | PENDING — lookup on day of import | SARS Customs & Excise Tariff portal. |
Anti-dumping / countervailing / safeguard context: ITAC import control (import permits and AD/CVD investigations on solar/battery lines).
Lookup instructions: consult the SARS Tariff & Excise — Customs and Excise Tariff (Schedules 1 to 10) on the SARS external policy library. Verify the current general rate (duty), any anti-dumping levy, the WTO rate, the SADC-EU EPA rate, and the AfCFTA preferential rate where the certificate of origin supports it. Duties are stated as PENDING above and must not be treated as fact until confirmed against the live SARS schedule on the date of import.
Disclaimer: tradvolt.com does not assert specific customs duty rates. Any duty figure used in a downstream landed-cost model must be re-pulled from the SARS Tariff & Excise portal on the date of import. Compliance with SARS customs procedure codes, VAT (15% standard), and any applicable carbon or environmental levy is the responsibility of the importer of record.