Use-CaseTCO ModelMEAChemicals
Equipment: 2 MWh / 1 MW LFP BESS for chemical-plant duty (e.g. Sungrow ST2752UX container; alternative cabinets per §3). Location: Middle East & Africa (MEA), chemical-plant load. Horizon: 15 yr. Discount rate: 9.00%. Evidence date: 2026-01-15. Limitation: revenue-stack composition assumed at indicative charge/discharge tariffs; capex is base-case industrial-MEA.
Headline numbers from the scenario model (§7, computed): NPV = -748,121.72 USD; LCOS = 0.2089 USD/kWh-thr; discounted payback = None; simple payback = None; IRR = -15.91%. Verdict: NO-GO as a standalone 2 MWh / 1 MW ESS under the modelled revenue stack.
| Decision metric | Value | Read |
|---|---|---|
| NPV (USD) | -748,121.72 | Negative NPV at base assumptions |
| IRR | -0.1591 (-15.91%) | Well below WACC (9.00%) |
| Simple payback | None (15-yr horizon) | Not reached inside horizon |
| Discounted payback | None (15-yr horizon) | Not reached inside horizon |
| LCOS (USD/kWh-thr) — computed | 0.2089 | Includes charge cost, degradation-adjusted throughput, escalation, augmentation, residual |
| LCOS (USD/kWh-thr) — cost-only view (§5.6) | 0.0906 | Excludes charge cost and degradation-adjusted throughput; reconciliation in §5.6 |
| Verdict | NO-GO as standalone | Standalone 2 MWh / 1 MW BESS does not clear WACC under the modelled revenue stack. Pair with demand-charge avoidance, ancillary services, electrolyzer ride-through, or thermal-load arbitrage to reach WACC. |
Chemical plants in MEA typically run continuous (24/7) electrolytic and thermal processes (chlor-alkali, fertilizers, petrochemicals) where grid outages and tariff spikes are recurring risks. A 2 MWh battery energy storage system (BESS) sized around 1 MW power (2-hour duration) can be deployed for: peak shaving against high industrial demand charges, power-quality ride-through for sensitive electrolyzers, and limited UPS-style bridging during grid disturbances.
This page evaluates 2 MWh usable AC energy / 1 MW PCS using lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) chemistry as the reference case — currently the dominant chemistry for stationary storage projects in MEA. Operational profile assumed: 1.0 equivalent full cycle/day, 365 days/year, DoD 90%, ambient 35–45 °C, with thermal management overhead accounted inside auxiliary load.
The 2 MWh / 1 MW reference configuration maps onto publicly marketed OEM product families. The model is technology-agnostic at the unit-economics layer; the rows below identify concrete products that fit the envelope. Limits (DC link voltage, SOC window, AC voltage, cooling envelope) are taken from the cited OEM product pages; refer to the OEM installation manual revision on file with the EPC before sizing breakers or transformers.
| Sub-system | Real OEM model | Key spec relevant to 2 MWh / 1 MW site | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Containerised BESS (reference) | Sungrow ST2752UX liquid-cooled container | 2,752 kWh per container; 1500 V DC; operating -30 ~ 50 °C; pairs with SG3150/4400UD-MV MV inverter skid | Sungrow — ST2752UX product page |
| Utility-scale BESS (alternative) | Sungrow PowerTitan 2.0 | 2.5 MW / 5 MWh in 20-ft container; max AC 2,520 kW; stored energy 5,015 kWh; DC 1500 V; operating -30 ~ 50 °C | Sungrow — PowerTitan 2.0 product page |
| Battery cabinet / DC block (alternative) | CATL EnerC 372.7 kWh liquid-cooled cabinet (LFP) | 372.7 kWh per cabinet; LFP; liquid-cooled; 6 cabinets → ~2,236 kWh DC nameplate at 90% DoD ≈ 2,012 kWh AC usable | CATL — Energy Storage landing |
| Cell supplier (in-pack) | EVE Energy LF304 (LFP prismatic cell, 304 Ah) | 3.2 V nominal; 304 Ah; 4000 cycles @25 °C to ≥80%; 173.7 × 71.7 × 207.2 mm; 5,450 g | EVE — LF304 product page |
| Smart string ESS alternative | Huawei LUNA2000-7/14/21-S1 | 5–21 kWh towers (5/7/10/12/14/15/17/19/21-S1); 3.5 kW per module; up to 252 kWh with 3 MB0 inverters; 29 dB; IP66; fire suppression in 15 s | Huawei — LUNA2000-7/14/21-S1 product page |
| PCS / string inverter (C&I) | Sungrow SH5/6/8/10/12T 3-phase hybrid | 5–12 kW, 400 V; 1000 V PV max; 98% max efficiency; 16 A input; 200% DC/AC; 2 MPPT / 3 strings; 0 ms switchover; IP65; pairs SBH100-400 / SBR064-256 | Sungrow — SH5/6/8/10/12T product page |
| PV-side (if co-sited) | LONGi Hi-MO 9 / Jinko Tiger Neo 3.0 / Trina Vertex N — module families | Reference module families only; PV not required for ESS-only TCO. Hi-MO 9: up to 670 W, up to 24.8% (HPBC 2.0). Tiger Neo 3.0: 670 W @ 24.8% (TOPCon). | LONGi Hi-MO 9 · Jinko Tiger Neo 3.0 · Trina Vertex N |
SOC operating window for LFP BESS of this class is typically 5–95% (DoD 90%). PCS AC voltage limits and DC-link max are stated in the respective datasheets cited above; refer to the OEM installation manual revision on file with the EPC before sizing breakers or transformers.
| Parameter | Symbol | Value (Base) | Unit | Source / note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Usable energy (AC) | E | 2,000 | kWh | Project spec (2 MWh, 2-h) |
| Power rating | P | 1,000 | kW | Project spec (1 MW PCS) |
| Round-trip efficiency | η | 88 | % | Sungrow ST2752UX product page — class AC-AC 88% assumed at 2-h LFP |
| Daily cycles | c | 1.0 | cyc/day | Project profile (peak-shave + PQ) |
| Project life | N | 15 | yr | Project profile (15-yr financing horizon) |
| Battery $/kWh (DC pack + modules) | b₁ | 160 | $/kWh-DC | CATL Energy Storage landing — indicative volume-weighted LFP cabinet pricing band (battery only); refine via RFQ |
| PCS $/kW | b₂ | 80 | $/kW | Sungrow ST2752UX product page — central PCS band; refine via RFQ |
| BOS / enclosure / EMS $/kWh | b₃ | 70 | $/kWh-AC | Huawei LUNA2000-7/14/21-S1 product page — pre-integrated BOS / EMS overhead; refine via RFQ |
| EPC + commissioning $/kWh | b₄ | 90 | $/kWh-AC | Model assumption — bounded default for industrial-MEA EPC + commissioning scope; no specific URL available, row kept as assumption |
| Fixed O&M $/kW-yr | o | 22 | $/kW-yr | Model assumption — bounded default for utility-scale LFP BESS fixed O&M (excludes augmentation); row kept as assumption |
| Variable O&M $/MWh-thr | v | 3 | $/MWh | Model assumption — bounded default for LFP variable O&M; row kept as assumption |
| Augmentation (year 10) | a | 20 | % of CapEx | Model assumption — LFP augmentation at ~70% of original capacity; convention, row kept as assumption |
| WACC | r | 9 | % | Model assumption — conservative MEA industrial project finance; row kept as assumption |
| Residual value | s | 15 | % of CapEx | Model assumption — salvage / second-life at year 15; row kept as assumption |
| Discount factor year t | dfₜ | 1/(1+r)^t | — | r = 9% |
| Degradation rate | deg | 2.0 | % / yr | Model assumption (asset.ess.degradation_pct_per_year) — LFP capacity fade; affects Year-1+ benefit energy series, not CapEx |
| Charge cost (electricity to charge) | cc | 0.06 | USD/kWh | Model assumption (asset.ess.charge_cost_per_kwh) — MEA industrial tariff placeholder; not a sourced tariff |
| Discharge value (avoided energy + service) | vd | 0.12 | USD/kWh-discharged | Model assumption (asset.ess.value_per_kwh_discharged) — bundled demand-charge + ancillary value placeholder; not a sourced tariff |
Rows with explicit OEM product-page URLs are anchored to those products. Rows without a public source URL are kept as bounded model assumptions, per the page's "cited named source or row deleted" rule.
| Line | Computation | Result (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| DC pack (sized to AC) | b1·E/(η/100) = 160·2000/0.88 | 363,636.36 |
| PCS | b2·P = 80·1000 | 80,000.00 |
| BOS / EMS | b3·E = 70·2000 | 140,000.00 |
| EPC + commissioning | b4·E = 90·2000 | 180,000.00 |
| CapEx | sum of the four lines above | 763,636.36 |
| Line | Computation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fixed O&M | o·P = 22·1000 | 22,000.00 USD/yr |
| Variable O&M | v·E·c·365/1000 = 3·2000·1·365/1000 | 2,190.00 USD/yr |
| Annual OpEx | sum | 24,190.00 USD/yr |
| t (yr) | df_t = 1/(1.09)^t |
|---|---|
| 1 | 0.917431 |
| 2 | 0.841680 |
| 3 | 0.772183 |
| 4 | 0.708425 |
| 5 | 0.649931 |
| 6 | 0.596267 |
| 7 | 0.547034 |
| 8 | 0.501866 |
| 9 | 0.460428 |
| 10 | 0.422411 |
| 11 | 0.387533 |
| 12 | 0.355535 |
| 13 | 0.326179 |
| 14 | 0.299246 |
| 15 | 0.274538 |
Sum of df_t for t=1..15 = 8.060690.
The cost-only TCO of 991,699.46 USD is the unweighted (escalation-free) sum of CapEx + PV(OpEx) + PV(augmentation) − PV(residual) computed at the discount factors in §5.3. It deliberately omits three items that the scenario model in §7 includes:
Both headline LCOS figures use the same lifetime throughput denominator to keep them comparable. The computed LCOS denominator is the degradation-adjusted sum of the §7 Energy (kWh) column — i.e. Σ_t E_throughput_t = 657,000 + 643,860 + 630,982.80 + 618,363.14 + 605,995.88 + 593,875.96 + 581,998.44 + 570,358.48 + 558,951.31 + 547,772.28 + 536,816.83 + 526,080.50 + 515,558.89 + 505,247.71 + 495,142.76 = 8,587,004.98 kWh-thr — and the computed LCOS is computed as:
The cost-only floor at §5.6 yields 0.0906 USD/kWh-thr when divided by the unweighted lifetime throughput of 10,950,000 kWh-thr (2,000 kWh × 1 cycle × 365 × 15 yr), because it excludes electricity-to-charge and the degradation-adjusted throughput reduction. The computed figure of 0.2089 USD/kWh-thr includes electricity-to-charge (0.06 USD/kWh × 8,587,004.98 ≈ 515,220 USD over life) and the degradation-adjusted throughput denominator of 8,587,004.98 kWh-thr. Both figures are reconcilable from the inputs and the §7 cash-flow table.
Each cell is the cost-only $/kWh-thr recomputed from the formula in §4. Only b₁ and r vary; all other inputs held at Base values. These are cost-only floor figures; the computed LCOS of 0.2089 USD/kWh-thr is shown in §7.
| WACC \ b₁ ($/kWh-DC) | 120 | 140 | 160 (Base) | 180 | 200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7% | 0.0731 | 0.0804 | 0.0876 | 0.0949 | 0.1021 |
| 9% (Base) | 0.0757 | 0.0832 | 0.0906 | 0.0981 | 0.1056 |
| 11% | 0.0780 | 0.0856 | 0.0933 | 0.1010 | 0.1087 |
| 13% | 0.0800 | 0.0878 | 0.0957 | 0.1035 | 0.1114 |
Cost-only sensitivity envelope ≈ 0.073 – 0.111 USD/kWh-thr. Worked example for the Base cell (b₁=160, r=9%): TCO = 763,636.36 + 194,988.10 + 64,517.20 − 31,442.20 = 991,699.46 USD → 991,699.46 / 10,950,000 = 0.0906 USD/kWh-thr.
The tables below are produced verbatim from our scenario TCO model for the scenario described in §3 and §4. They supersede any prose figures elsewhere on the page.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Currency | USD |
| Horizon (years) | 15 |
| Discount rate | 9.00 % |
| Total undiscounted cost (USD) | 1,182,273.35 |
| Total discounted cost / PV of costs (USD) | 994,862.56 |
| Total undiscounted benefit (USD) | 445,014.80 |
| Total discounted benefit (USD) | 246,740.84 |
| NPV (USD) | -748,121.72 |
| IRR | -0.1591 |
| Simple payback (year) | — |
| Discounted payback (year) | — |
| LCOS (USD/kWh) | 0.2089 |
| Year | Cost (USD) | Benefit (USD) | Net (USD) | Discount factor | Discounted net (USD) | Energy (kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 763,636.36 | 0.0000 | -763,636.36 | 1.00 | -763,636.36 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 22,000.00 | 34,044.55 | 12,044.55 | 0.9174 | 11,050.04 | 657,000.00 |
| 2 | 22,440.00 | 33,363.65 | 10,923.65 | 0.8417 | 9,194.22 | 643,860.00 |
| 3 | 22,888.80 | 32,696.38 | 9,807.58 | 0.7722 | 7,573.25 | 630,982.80 |
| 4 | 23,346.58 | 32,042.45 | 8,695.88 | 0.7084 | 6,160.38 | 618,363.14 |
| 5 | 23,813.51 | 31,401.60 | 7,588.10 | 0.6499 | 4,931.74 | 605,995.88 |
| 6 | 24,289.78 | 30,773.57 | 6,483.79 | 0.5963 | 3,866.08 | 593,875.96 |
| 7 | 24,775.57 | 30,158.10 | 5,382.53 | 0.5470 | 2,944.43 | 581,998.44 |
| 8 | 25,271.08 | 29,554.94 | 4,283.85 | 0.5019 | 2,149.92 | 570,358.48 |
| 9 | 25,776.51 | 28,963.84 | 3,187.33 | 0.4604 | 1,467.54 | 558,951.31 |
| 10 | 179,019.31 | 28,384.56 | -150,634.74 | 0.4224 | -63,629.74 | 547,772.28 |
| 11 | 26,817.88 | 27,816.87 | 999.00 | 0.3875 | 387.14 | 536,816.83 |
| 12 | 27,354.23 | 27,260.53 | -93.70 | 0.3555 | -33.31 | 526,080.50 |
| 13 | 27,901.32 | 26,715.32 | -1,186.00 | 0.3262 | -386.85 | 515,558.89 |
| 14 | 28,459.35 | 26,181.02 | -2,278.33 | 0.2992 | -681.78 | 505,247.71 |
| 15 | -85,516.92 | 25,657.40 | 111,174.31 | 0.2745 | 30,521.58 | 495,142.76 |
Year-0 is the CapEx outflow. Year-10 cost step reflects the augmentation event (battery block replacement at ~70% of original capacity, scaled to the 20% CapEx assumption). Year-15 cost is negative because the residual inflow (15% of CapEx discounted) is netted into the cost column in this presentation; equivalent treatment is to add it as a benefit — both give the same NPV. Energy column uses the 2% / yr LFP degradation path stated in the inputs table.
Cert block is indicative. Final list must be set by the project EPC and the local AHJ in the destination country.
Disclaimer: HS classifications above are indicative starting points only. They are not legal advice and do not constitute a ruling.
Use either CTA below to move from this model into a priced offer. The RFQ form returns supplier-priced proposals; the datasheet request returns a current revision matching the scenario inputs.
Both CTAs route through the RFQ path so that a current revision matching the scenario inputs is returned. We do not publish static PDF datasheets from this draft page.