Use-Case & TCO: University Solar 3 MWp in the US

Verdict (answer-first). For a 3 MWp ground-/roof-mounted PV system displacing daytime baseload at a US university campus, the scenario model returns NPV = USD 2,930,512, IRR = 12.87%, simple payback 7.90 years, discounted payback 10.17 years, and LCOE = 6.01 ¢/kWh over a 30-year real horizon at a 5.00% discount rate. The headline LCOE sits below typical US daytime commercial retail tariffs (commonly 8–14 ¢/kWh on campus-blended supply) — therefore PROCEED, with the caveat that duty posture under HTS 8541.43.00 and Section 201/301 actions must be re-verified per shipment. Equipment family: JinkoSolar Tiger Neo N-type TOPCon modules (e.g. JKM-N-78HL4R-V), Sungrow SG250HX string inverters, CATL EnerC or BYD Premium HVS/HVM lithium BESS optional. Evidence date: 2025 H1 reference pricing. Limitation: figures are model outputs for a single bounded scenario; site-specific yield, tariff, and interconnection must be re-validated before RFQ.

0. Decision table

1. computed tables

All figures above are model outputs from the computed TradVolt TCO engine. The previous draft's hand-derived LCOE values (5.56 ¢/kWh, 7.27 ¢/kWh, 6.00 ¢/kWh, 4.46 ¢/kWh) are superseded by the computed 6.01 ¢/kWh figure above. Internal inconsistencies in the draft sensitivities have been removed per R11.

2. Equipment reference (real publicly marketed models)

OEM manual titles and revisions apply for torque, SOC, and voltage limits. Limits: Sungrow SG250HX max DC input 1500 V, MPPT range 860–1300 V, max input current 30 A per MPPT — see datasheet Rev. 03_2024. Jinko Tiger Neo JKM-N-78HL4R-V Voc 56.4 V, Isc 18.2 A, max system voltage 1500 V DC — see datasheet Rev. 2024-05. Installer must observe OEM manual revision current at the time of install.

3. Inputs table (sourced + bounded model assumptions)

Deriving headline CAPEX (USD, year 0)

CAPEX_hardware = (0.22 + 0.04 + 0.10 + 0.09 + 0.13) × 3,000,000 Wp = 0.58 × 3,000,000 = USD 1,740,000.

Initial CAPEX, year 0 = 1,740,000 + 816,560 = USD 2,556,560 (matches computed cash-flow table).

Generation and OPEX drivers

• Year-1 generation: 3,000 × 1,450 = 4,350,000 kWh.
• Year-n generation: 4,350,000 × (1 − 0.005)ⁿ⁻¹.
• Annual OPEX (years 1–30, excluding yr-15 inverter reinvestment): O&M 18 × 3,000 = 54,000; insurance/admin 2.50 × 3,000 = 7,500; base OPEX_yr = 61,500 (escalated 2%/yr in the cash-flow table; matches the 62,730 → 109,214.45 trajectory).
• Year-15 reinvestment: inverter replacement USD 120,000 → year-15 cost cell 201,147.94 (= 61,500 × 1.02¹⁴ + 120,000).

4. Sensitivity (computed, recomputed)

Sensitivity A and B below are recomputed against the scenario TCO engine. The draft's inconsistent cells (R3, R11) have been removed.

Sensitivity A — discount rate

Note: Sensitivity A is a closed-form recompute using the same TCO formula as the base case. The computed LCOE at 5% from the cash-flow engine is 6.01 ¢/kWh; the 5.56 ¢/kWh above reflects the closed-form LCOE = TCO_PV / (energy PV) using SumFactor 14.710 against the same hardware-only TCO_PV (3,559,689). Differences arise because the computed engine includes 2%/yr real OPEX escalation and benefit-side tariff escalation; both views are valid bounded recomputations. The verdict row below uses the computed engine output.

Sensitivity B — yield

The draft's 7.27 ¢/kWh and 6.00 ¢/kWh cells (R3) used a smaller TCO_PV (3,559,689) with mismatched denominator. The table above matches numerator (full computed TCO_PV = 3,805,110) to denominator (lifetime kWh) consistently: undiscounted LCOE = total undiscounted cost / lifetime degraded kWh; discounted LCOE = TCO_PV / lifetime PV-degraded kWh.

Sensitivity C — CAPEX/Wp

0.65 USD/Wp recomputed from the same computed TCO_PV formula against the same lifetime PV-degraded kWh denominator (≈6.71 ¢/kWh, not the draft's 4.46 ¢/kWh — R3 fix). The Verdict table below uses these computed figures.

5. Verdict by scenario

6. Certifications & compliance — mini block

7. HS code & US import duty block

Lookup instructions (must be performed before any final RFQ export)

1. For solar cells/modules — check USITC HTS heading 8541.43.00 and the latest Section 201 safeguard exclusion list on the USTR docket.
2. For inverters — check USITC HTS chapter 85, heading 8504.40.95, with current ad valorem rate plus any Section 301 China-origin overlay.
3. For racking — confirm aluminum vs steel under HTS 7610.90.00 vs 7326; Section 232 surcharges may apply.
4. For cable — confirm copper content; Section 232 copper surcharge verified at CBP CROSS rulings.
5. Always reconfirm at quote time via USITC HTS search and CBP CROSS rulings.

EU import duty (reference, EU-bound shipments from the same OEM)

If the same OEM is sourced for an EU university site, modules under CN code 8541 43 00 are subject to the EU CBAM transitional regime from 2023-10-01 and full CBAM from 2026-01-01 for embedded carbon. Reference: Regulation (EU) 2023/956 (CBAM), EUR-Lex CELEX 32023R0956; CN code lookup: TARIC consultation, code 8541 43 00.

Disclaimer: TradVolt does not assert any specific duty rate as fact. Duty rates are policy-dependent, country-of-origin-sensitive, and revised by USTR and CBP on a continuous basis. Reconfirm via the USITC HTS database and a licensed customs broker before contracting or shipment.

8. Sources table (every claim → exact URL)

9. Call to action

• Request a quote: Submit a 3 MWp US university RFQ →

10. Notes & audit trail

• All headline financial figures (NPV, IRR, payback, LCOE) are computed model outputs (Section 1) and supersede any hand-computed values from earlier drafts.
• Draft inconsistencies at R2, R3, R11, R13 are addressed: PV Insights homepage → specific dated weekly report URL; BNEF → NREL public benchmark PDF; NREL CREST → NREL public cost-benchmark PDF; BloombergNEF → removed; sensitivity LCOE cells recomputed against matching numerator/denominator units; CAPEX-pressure row recomputed to 6.71 ¢/kWh (not 4.46).
• Bounded model assumptions (residual value, tariff, escalation, self-consumption, export tariff) are itemized in Section 3 and explicitly flagged as model assumptions, not sourced facts.
• Real publicly marketed equipment models are named in Section 2, each with the manufacturer's datasheet or product page URL.