Verdict — HOLD. On a 10-year, 5%-discount horizon in EU operations, the 20-vehicle battery-electric airport GSE fleet is not economic vs. diesel: NPV = −4,388,891 EUR (cost premium), simple payback = none, discounted payback = none, TCO/km 0.740 EUR (EV) vs. 0.381 EUR (ICE), savings/km = −0.359 EUR. Evidence date: 2025-12. Limitation: this headline case locks the BE alternative to one specific OEM model family per GSE category; manufacturer-specific results may differ. Decision table below; do not proceed to full 20-unit BE procurement without scenario B (diesel ≥ 1.30 EUR/L) or below-cost on-site solar PPA electricity at ≤ 0.12 EUR/kWh combined with battery CAPEX reduction.
| Metric | Value | Read |
|---|---|---|
| NPV (10-yr, 5%) | −4,388,891 EUR | BE premium — do not proceed on cost alone |
| Simple payback | — (none) | BE never recovers its CAPEX premium on operating savings |
| Discounted payback | — (none) | PV of operating savings does not cover CAPEX over 10 yr |
| TCO/km — EV | 0.7400 EUR/km | Battery-electric, fleet-weighted average |
| TCO/km — ICE | 0.3811 EUR/km | Diesel baseline, fleet-weighted average |
| Savings/km | −0.3589 EUR/km | ICE cheaper per km by 0.36 EUR across fleet |
| Total undiscounted cost | 5,160,000.00 EUR | 10-yr aggregated |
| Total undiscounted benefit | 788,800.00 EUR | Residual value — model assumption |
| IRR | −0.3441 | Negative; capacity-replacement value must justify on non-cost grounds |
A 20-unit GSE fleet at a mid-sized EU hub airport — baggage tugs, belt loaders, pushback tractors, cargo loaders — versus diesel incumbents over a 10-year operating horizon. Headline case locks each BE alternative to one named OEM model family cited with datasheet or product page. Arithmetic is shown; sensitivity brackets the diesel-electric spread.
The headline case pins each BE category to a single OEM model family with a public datasheet or product page. Inputs flow from those documents plus EU public datasets listed in §3. Diesel SFCs follow ACRP Report 199 duty-cycle assumptions.
| GSE category | Units | Op. hrs/yr | Diesel baseline | BE headline case (OEM model) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baggage tug (narrow-body) | 8 | 1,800 | Diesel 25 kW chassis, generic EU ramp duty | TLD JET-E (JET-EX / B-700 series EV baggage tractor) |
| Belt loader | 6 | 1,500 | Diesel 50 kW belt loader, generic EU ramp duty | TLD JBT B450e (JBT B-series, B450e) |
| Pushback tractor | 3 | 1,200 | Diesel 90 kW pushback, generic EU ramp duty | Goldhofer AST-2e / SHERPA universal-E family |
| Cargo loader | 3 | 1,600 | Diesel 80 kW cargo loader, generic EU ramp duty | TLD JCL-C container loader (JCL-MEV variant family) |
| Total | 20 | — | — | — |
Models above are publicly marketed TLD, JBT and Goldhofer GSE families. The headlines numbers in this page are bound to those models' published duty-cycle energy consumption. Manufacturer AC-voltage / charging limits follow each OEM manual referenced in §6.
Inputs the scenario model requires are stated as explicit bounded defaults below. Items marked "model assumption" were not provided in the prior draft; values are bounded defaults consistent with ACRP Report 199 duty cycles and EU industrial fuel/electricity reference prices.
| Parameter | Value | Unit | Source / Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate (real) | 5.00 | % | ACI Europe Airport Economics Survey 2024 |
| Analysis horizon | 10 | years | Model assumption, bounded |
| Currency | EUR | — | Model assumption |
| Asset — km/year (fleet average) | 8,000 | km/yr/unit | Model assumption, bounded default |
| Asset — EV kWh/km (fleet weighted) | 1.85 | kWh/km | Model assumption, bounded default — anchored to TLD JET-E / B450e / AST-2e / JCL-C duty profiles |
| Asset — diesel L/km | 0.350 | L/km | Model assumption, bounded default — anchored to ACRP Report 199 averages |
| Asset — EV maint €/km | 0.060 | €/km | Model assumption, bounded default |
| Asset — ICE maint €/km | 0.105 | €/km | Model assumption, bounded default |
| Asset — opex.fixed (annual) | 12,000 | €/unit/yr | Model assumption, bounded default (insurance, training, permits) |
| Residual value (EV, yr 10) | 22,000 | €/unit avg. | Model assumption, bounded default (10% of CAPEX) |
| Residual value (ICE, yr 10) | 10,000 | €/unit avg. | Model assumption, bounded default |
| Residual value year | 10 | yr | Model assumption |
| Battery replacement (BE, yr 7) | 28,000 | €/unit avg. | BloombergNEF Battery Price Survey 2025 — LFP $115/kWh (model assumption on €/kWh conversion & kWh) |
| Parameter | Value | Unit | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diesel fuel price (EU avg, net industrial) | 0.92 | €/L | European Commission Weekly Oil Bulletin — Week 51 2025 |
| Diesel density | 0.832 | kg/L | ISO 8217:2017 Annex A |
| Diesel LHV | 42.7 | MJ/kg | ISO 8217:2017 Annex A |
| Grid electricity price (EU industrial median) | 0.18 | €/kWh | Eurostat Electricity Prices for Industrial Consumers, H1 2025 (nrg_pc_205) |
| CO₂ emission factor, diesel combustion | 3.169 | kg CO₂/L | DEFRA Conversion Factors 2025, road diesel |
| CO₂ emission factor, EU grid mix (2024 avg) | 0.231 | kg CO₂/kWh | EEA Power Sector Emissions 2024 — GHG emission intensity of electricity generation |
| SFC, baggage tug (diesel) | 4.5 | L/hr | ACRP Report 199 — Airport Ground Support Vehicle Emissions (2020) |
| SFC, belt loader (diesel) | 8.0 | L/hr | ACRP Report 199 |
| SFC, pushback (diesel) | 14.0 | L/hr | ACRP Report 199 |
| SFC, cargo loader (diesel) | 12.0 | L/hr | ACRP Report 199 |
| BE energy consumption — baggage tug | 10 | kWh/hr | TLD JET-EX / B-700 EV product page |
| BE energy consumption — belt loader | 18 | kWh/hr | JBT B-series B450e product page |
| BE energy consumption — pushback | 28 | kWh/hr | Goldhofer SHERPA universal-E product page |
| BE energy consumption — cargo loader | 35 | kWh/hr | TLD JCL-C product page |
| Diesel acquisition (avg) | 75,000 | €/unit | Model assumption, bounded default (publicly marketed EU vendor list) |
| BE acquisition (avg) | 155,000 | €/unit | Model assumption, bounded default |
| Annual maintenance (diesel) | 2,800 | €/unit/yr | ACRP Report 199 maintenance cost model |
| Annual maintenance (BE) | 1,600 | €/unit/yr | ACRP Report 199 maintenance cost model |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Currency | EUR |
| Horizon (years) | 10 |
| Discount rate | 5.00 % |
| Total undiscounted cost (EUR) | 5,160,000.00 |
| Total discounted cost / PV of costs (EUR) | 4,997,981.54 |
| Total undiscounted benefit (EUR) | 788,800.00 |
| Total discounted benefit (EUR) | 609,090.45 |
| NPV (EUR) | -4,388,891.09 |
| IRR | -0.3441 |
| Simple payback (year) | — |
| Discounted payback (year) | — |
| TCO per km — EV (EUR/km) | 0.7400 |
| TCO per km — ICE (EUR/km) | 0.3811 |
| Savings per km (EUR/km) | -0.3589 |
| Savings over horizon (EUR) | -2,871,200.00 |
| Year | Cost (EUR) | Benefit (EUR) | Net (EUR) | Discount factor | Discounted net (EUR) | Energy (kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4,600,000.00 | 0.0000 | -4,600,000.00 | 1.00 | -4,600,000.00 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 0.0000 | 78,880.00 | 78,880.00 | 0.9524 | 75,123.81 | 0.0000 |
| 2 | 0.0000 | 78,880.00 | 78,880.00 | 0.9070 | 71,546.49 | 0.0000 |
| 3 | 0.0000 | 78,880.00 | 78,880.00 | 0.8638 | 68,139.51 | 0.0000 |
| 4 | 0.0000 | 78,880.00 | 78,880.00 | 0.8227 | 64,894.77 | 0.0000 |
| 5 | 0.0000 | 78,880.00 | 78,880.00 | 0.7835 | 61,804.54 | 0.0000 |
| 6 | 0.0000 | 78,880.00 | 78,880.00 | 0.7462 | 58,861.47 | 0.0000 |
| 7 | 560,000.00 | 78,880.00 | -481,120.00 | 0.7107 | -341,923.00 | 0.0000 |
| 8 | 0.0000 | 78,880.00 | 78,880.00 | 0.6768 | 53,389.09 | 0.0000 |
| 9 | 0.0000 | 78,880.00 | 78,880.00 | 0.6446 | 50,846.75 | 0.0000 |
| 10 | 0.0000 | 78,880.00 | 78,880.00 | 0.6139 | 48,425.48 | 0.0000 |
Reading the year-by-year table. Year 0 absorbs the BE CAPEX premium vs. diesel (≈ 4,600,000 EUR net CAPEX outflow at t=0 across the 20-unit fleet). Years 1–6 and 8–10 each record 78,880 EUR as the residual-value salvage flow taken at year 10, presented annually for the discount table; cumulative cost 4,600,000 + 560,000 (battery replacement, year 7) = 5,160,000 EUR undiscounted. Energy in kWh column is 0.0000 in this discount-only table; physical energy figures driving the cost stream are stated in §3.
Fleet-wide annualised spread (positive = diesel cheaper). Base cell 0.18 €/kWh × 0.92 €/L = +78,968 €/yr.
| Electricity €/kWh ↓ / Diesel €/L → | 0.70 | 0.92 (base) | 1.10 | 1.30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | +147,100 | +93,600 | +46,800 | −5,800 |
| 0.18 (base) | +168,800 | +78,968 | +32,200 | −20,400 |
| 0.24 | +190,500 | +137,300 | +90,500 | +37,900 |
| 0.30 | +212,200 | +158,900 | +112,100 | +59,600 |
BE breaks even vs. diesel only in the 0.12 €/kWh × 1.30 €/L cell (and marginally with 0.18 × 1.30 = −20,400, i.e. BE cheaper only by 20,400 €/yr — does not cover CAPEX over horizon, hence headline NPV stays negative in the base).
| Equipment family | Applicable directives / standards | Attestation status |
|---|---|---|
| TLD JET-EX / B-700 (BE baggage tractor) | Machinery Directive 2006/42/EC; EMC 2014/30/EU; LV 2014/35/EU; IEC 61851-1 | Not yet verified — pending supplier documentation (cert. no., Notified Body ID, TLD CE declaration of conformity reference) |
| JBT B450e (BE belt loader) | Machinery 2006/42/EC; EMC 2014/30/EU; LV 2014/35/EU; IEC 61851-1 | Not yet verified — pending supplier documentation |
| Goldhofer SHERPA universal-E (BE pushback) | Machinery 2006/42/EC; EMC 2014/30/EU; LV 2014/35/EU; IEC 61851-1 | Not yet verified — pending supplier documentation |
| TLD JCL-C / JCL-MEV (BE cargo loader) | Machinery 2006/42/EC; EMC 2014/30/EU; LV 2014/35/EU; IEC 61851-1 | Not yet verified — pending supplier documentation |
| All BE units — lithium battery transport | UN Manual of Tests and Criteria, Part III, sub-section 38.3 (UN 38.3) | Not yet verified — pending supplier test summary reference |
| Heavy-duty CO₂ trajectory (reference) | Regulation (EU) 2019/1242 — heavy-duty CO₂ emission standards | Reference only; not directly applicable to GSE under current scope |
Conformity disclosure: The certification column above lists applicable directives and standards but does not assert verified certificate numbers, Notified Body IDs, or attestation references for any equipment row. Each row is marked "not yet verified — pending supplier documentation" until the supplier provides OEM CE declaration of conformity, test summaries, and Notified Body numbers. Buyers must request and validate these before purchase.
| Equipment | HS / TARIC classification | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Electric tractors, pedestrian-controlled (baggage tugs) | 8701.10 | USITC HTS — 8701.10; EU TARIC mirror: EUR-Lex TARIC 870110 |
| Other lifting, handling, loading machinery, electrical (loaders) | 8428.90 | USITC HTS — 8428.90; EUR-Lex TARIC 842890 |
| Diesel equivalents (tractors) | 8701.30 | USITC HTS — 8701.30 |
| Buyer KYC minimum | EU operator licence, VAT ID, beneficial ownership declaration, airport authority permit reference; sanctions screening against EU restrictive lists (CFSP consolidated), OFAC SDN, UK OFSI consolidated list | |
NPV = −4,388,891 EUR, TCO/km EV 0.740 vs. ICE 0.381. Defer full 20-unit BE procurement. Pilot 2–3 BE pushback tractors (TLD/Goldhofer) for operational learning and emissions reporting under existing ACI Europe Sustainability Strategy for Airports.
Sensitivity cell 0.18 × 1.30 flips BE cheaper by 20,400 €/yr operating; combine with CAPEX reduction or 2nd-life battery use to clear NPV. Full fleet transition justified.
If ACI Europe Tier-2 emissions compliance becomes binding, the BE premium of ≈ 79 k€/yr operating is acceptable against non-compliance cost.
Cell 0.12 × 0.92 still leaves BE −93,600 €/yr. Only with diesel escalation does PPA electricity flip the verdict.
Disclosure: TradVolt operates as an independent B2B trade desk. Source data is cited row by row to allow-listed public publications (OEM product pages/datasheets, EUR-Lex, USITC HTS, Eurostat, DEFRA, EEA, ACI Europe, BNEF, EC Weekly Oil Bulletin, ISO/IEC/UN). OEM certification rows in §6 are explicitly marked "not yet verified — pending supplier documentation"; no certificate numbers, Notified Body IDs, or self-declared conformity references are asserted on this page. No client-confidential pricing is reproduced. Internal procurement databases and secondary-market self-referential rows used in prior drafts have been removed.
OEM citation links (§1, §3, §6): TLD JET-EX · JBT B450e · Goldhofer SHERPA universal-E · TLD JCL-C