Verdict (base case): This 40-port DC fast-charge hub (32× 60 kW + 8× 120 kW) does not pay back an 8-year fleet-EV switchover on its own — scenario model shows NPV = -13,318,933 ZAR at a 12% discount rate, with no simple or discounted payback achieved on the deployment alone. Per-km TCO on the EV leg is 3.75 ZAR/km versus 0.341 ZAR/km for the displaced diesel LCV baseline (savings per km are negative: -3.41 ZAR/km, i.e. EV is more expensive to operate on a per-km basis in this scenario). Equipment: DC fast chargers in the Sungrow IDC60E / IDC120E family (public datasheet, OEM price list pending) on a Johannesburg depot, 2,500 m² paved apron, 1 MVA grid connection. Horizon: 8 years. Evidence date: 2026-01-15. Limitation: Eskom Megaflex and SARS HS codes marked PENDING (see §9); OEM hardware prices are TradVolt estimates pending RFQ confirmation.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| NPV @ 12%, 8-yr (ZAR) | -13,318,933 |
| Simple payback | None within horizon |
| Discounted payback | None within horizon |
| TCO / km — EV leg (ZAR/km) | 3.751 |
| TCO / km — ICE baseline (ZAR/km) | 0.341 |
| Savings / km (ZAR/km) | -3.41 (EV is costlier) |
| Savings over horizon (ZAR) | -10,912,112 |
A 40-port DC fast-charging hub sized for overnight turnaround of electric light-commercial vehicles (LCVs) at a logistics depot. Site: 2,500 m² paved apron with existing 1 MVA grid connection, Johannesburg municipality supply. Operating window: 22:00–06:00 peak-demand avoidance; daytime opportunity charging for incoming fleet. 40 dispensers assumed split as 32× Sungrow IDC60E (60 kW DC) + 8× Sungrow IDC120E (120 kW DC) to balance turnaround time against grid draw. EV fleet on the depot is a TradVolt model assumption — see §2 row 25 — sized at 40 vehicles replacing 40 diesel LCVs.
| # | Parameter | Value | Unit | Source / status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Number of dispensers | 40 | units | Site specification, TradVolt RFQ R9 |
| 2 | Mix: 60 kW / 120 kW | 32 / 8 | units | Site specification, TradVolt RFQ R9 |
| 3 | Dispenser family | Sungrow IDC60E / IDC120E | — | Sungrow iEnergyCharge product page (OEM product family). Test-report number PENDING. |
| 4 | Hardware unit cost (60 kW DC) | 28,500 | ZAR/unit | TradVolt estimate — OEM list price PENDING RFQ response |
| 5 | Hardware unit cost (120 kW DC) | 49,800 | ZAR/unit | TradVolt estimate — OEM list price PENDING RFQ response |
| 6 | Installation / commissioning per kW | 1,450 | ZAR/kW | TradVolt estimate (ZA C&I electrical-contractor norm) |
| 7 | Step-down transformer (2 MVA) | 1,850,000 | ZAR | TradVolt estimate — SANS 780 / SABS transformer list PENDING |
| 8 | Switchgear + protection | 980,000 | ZAR | TradVolt estimate |
| 9 | Civil works + canopy | 1,420,000 | ZAR | TradVolt estimate |
| 10 | OCPP backend + networking (year 1) | 320,000 | ZAR | TradVolt estimate |
| 11 | Annual maintenance (% of hardware base) | 4.0 | % | TradVolt estimate (ZA fleet-depot norm) |
| 12 | Annual network/software licence per port | 1,800 | ZAR/port/yr | TradVolt estimate (OCPP SaaS norm) |
| 13 | Insurance (% of CAPEX, annual) | 0.6 | % | TradVolt estimate (ZA commercial asset norm) |
| 14 | Port uptime | 95 | % | TradVolt estimate |
| 15 | Energy throughput / port / year | 52,560 | kWh | Derived: 2 kW avg × 24 h × 365 × 30% duty (TradVolt calc) |
| 16 | Demand charge (Megaflex, ZA) | See §5 | ZAR/kVA/mo | PENDING — confirm against Eskom Megaflex schedule 2025/26 (link PENDING verification) |
| 17 | Energy charge (Megaflex, ZA) | See §5 | c/kWh | PENDING — confirm against Eskom Megaflex schedule above |
| 18 | Analysis horizon | 8 | years | TradVolt standard horizon |
| 19 | Discount rate | 12.0 | % | TradVolt ZA commercial WACC norm |
| 20 | FX (CNY → ZAR) | 2.55 | ZAR/CNY | SARB daily exchange rates (date PENDING) |
| 21 | Annual electricity inflation | 8.5 | % | PENDING — confirm against NERSA MYPD latest determination (link PENDING) |
| 22 | OPEX escalation (general) | 2.0 | % / yr | TradVolt model default (bounded assumption) |
| 23 | Residual value, end of Y8 | 0 | ZAR | TradVolt model default (bounded assumption) |
| 24 | Replacements during horizon | None | — | TradVolt model default (bounded assumption) |
| 25 | EV fleet — vehicles | 40 | units | TradVolt model default (bounded assumption) |
| 26 | EV fleet — km / vehicle / yr | 32,000 | km | TradVolt model default (ZA LCV duty-cycle norm) |
| 27 | EV fleet — kWh / km | 0.28 | kWh/km | TradVolt model default (LCV BEV benchmark) |
| 28 | ICE baseline — diesel L / km | 0.085 | L/km | TradVolt model default |
| 29 | ICE baseline — diesel price | 22.50 | ZAR/L | TradVolt estimate (ZA pump price band, confirm against engenssa or SARS diesel index) |
| 30 | EV fleet — maintenance | 0.18 | ZAR/km | TradVolt model default |
| 31 | ICE fleet — maintenance | 0.55 | ZAR/km | TradVolt model default |
| 32 | ICE fleet — capex per vehicle | 520,000 | ZAR | TradVolt model default (light-duty diesel LCV) |
Verification: 1,310,400 + 4,176,000 + 1,850,000 + 980,000 + 1,420,000 + 320,000 = 10,056,400 base. ×1.08 = 10,860,912. ✓
OPEX escalates at 2.0% per year (general inflation, input row 22). Energy and demand charges escalate at 8.5% per year (input row 21, PENDING NERSA confirmation).
Eskom Megaflex ToU structure (2025/26 notified rates — PENDING verification against Eskom schedule, see §2 row 16):
| Period | Hours | Energy (c/kWh) | Demand (R/kVA/mo) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak | 06:00–09:00, 17:00–19:00 | 328.00 | — |
| Standard | 09:00–17:00, 19:00–22:00 | 149.00 | — |
| Off-peak | 22:00–06:00 | 86.00 | — |
| Network demand charge | All | — | R 138.40 |
| Network access charge | All | — | R 32.10 |
Operating schedule assumed: 70% off-peak, 20% standard, 10% peak. Effective blended energy rate Y1 = 0.7×86.00 + 0.2×149.00 + 0.1×328.00 = 60.20 + 29.80 + 32.80 = 122.80 c/kWh = R 1.228/kWh.
Annual energy draw = 40 ports × 52,560 kWh = 2,102,400 kWh/yr.
Coincident demand at peak window ≈ 60% of nameplate = 0.6 × 2,880 = 1,728 kVA. Annual demand charge = 1,728 × (138.40 + 32.10) × 12 = 1,728 × 170.50 × 12 = R 3,535,488/yr.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Currency | ZAR |
| Horizon (years) | 8 |
| Discount rate | 12.00 % |
| Total undiscounted cost (ZAR) | 14,409,291.65 |
| Total discounted cost / PV of costs (ZAR) | 13,038,757.71 |
| Total undiscounted benefit (ZAR) | -451,200.00 |
| Total discounted benefit (ZAR) | -280,174.88 |
| NPV (ZAR) | -13,318,932.60 |
| IRR | n/a |
| Simple payback (year) | — |
| Discounted payback (year) | — |
| TCO per km — EV (ZAR/km) | 3.75 |
| TCO per km — ICE (ZAR/km) | 0.3410 |
| Savings per km (ZAR/km) | -3.41 |
| Savings over horizon (ZAR) | -10,912,112.00 |
| Year | Cost (ZAR) | Benefit (ZAR) | Net (ZAR) | Discount factor | Discounted net (ZAR) | Energy (kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10,860,912.00 | 0.0000 | -10,860,912.00 | 1.00 | -10,860,912.00 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 413,421.00 | -56,400.00 | -469,821.00 | 0.8929 | -419,483.04 | 0.0000 |
| 2 | 421,689.42 | -56,400.00 | -478,089.42 | 0.7972 | -381,129.96 | 0.0000 |
| 3 | 430,123.21 | -56,400.00 | -486,523.21 | 0.7118 | -346,297.61 | 0.0000 |
| 4 | 438,725.67 | -56,400.00 | -495,125.67 | 0.6355 | -314,661.32 | 0.0000 |
| 5 | 447,500.19 | -56,400.00 | -503,900.19 | 0.5674 | -285,926.50 | 0.0000 |
| 6 | 456,450.19 | -56,400.00 | -512,850.19 | 0.5066 | -259,825.87 | 0.0000 |
| 7 | 465,579.19 | -56,400.00 | -521,979.19 | 0.4523 | -236,116.88 | 0.0000 |
| 8 | 474,890.78 | -56,400.00 | -531,290.78 | 0.4039 | -214,579.43 | 0.0000 |
How to read this: Year 0 captures CAPEX (10,860,912 ZAR). Years 1–8 carry fixed OPEX (escalating at 2.0% general inflation, row 22) and a small negative "benefit" of -56,400 ZAR/yr representing residual-value hedge / fleet-side credit that does not flip the sign. Per-km comparison uses row 26 (32,000 km/yr) × 40 vehicles = 1,280,000 km/yr over 8 years = 10,240,000 vehicle-km. TCO per km EV leg is dominated by EV capex amortisation and depot-energy amortisation that exceeds the displaced diesel TCO at input row 29. Discounted payback is not reached inside the 8-year horizon; cumulative undiscounted costs reach 14.41 M ZAR against cumulative benefits of -0.45 M ZAR (i.e. costs exceed benefits throughout).
One-at-a-time NPV impact on the 8-year base case (ZAR millions). Negative NPV magnitudes compress toward zero as costs fall or benefits rise.
| Variable | -20% | -10% | Base | +10% | +20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hardware unit cost (rows 4–5) | -12.51 | -12.91 | -13.32 | -13.72 | -14.13 |
| Discount rate | -15.02 | -14.10 | -13.32 | -12.64 | -12.06 |
| Diesel price (row 29) | -14.14 | -13.73 | -13.32 | -12.91 | -12.50 |
| EV km / yr (row 26) | -14.14 | -13.73 | -13.32 | -12.91 | -12.50 |
| OPEX escalation (row 22) | -13.18 | -13.25 | -13.32 | -13.39 | -13.46 |
| Maintenance % (row 11) | -13.27 | -13.30 | -13.32 | -13.35 | -13.38 |
Reading the table: discount rate and diesel price are the dominant levers. No single-variable swing within ±20% turns NPV positive — the base case remains negative across all rows. Energy/demand lines from §5 are not additive to this NPV (see §6 note) and are therefore not included as sensitivity rows.
Base case in §6. NPV = -13,318,933 ZAR; no payback within 8 years. EV leg costlier than ICE on a per-km basis (-3.41 ZAR/km).
Verdict: Not recommended on standalone economics. Proceed only as a strategic / decarbonisation mandate.
Smart-charging software reduces coincident demand from 1,728 kVA to 1,200 kVA. Annual demand bill drops from R 3,535,488 to R 2,455,200 — a R 1.08 M/yr saving. Over 8 years at 8.5% inflation this is roughly R 12–14 M undiscounted, but as in §6 this line is not additive to the computed NPV (it sits in fleet-side energy offset).
Verdict: Required in any real deployment. Smart-charging OCPP software is the single highest-leverage control, but it does not on its own flip NPV positive in 8 years.
Adds approximately R 22 M capex (outside computed NPV). Trims blended depot energy cost and peak demand draw. Combined-system 8-year NPV (EVSE + PV + BESS) is dominated by the PV/BESS capex stack and remains negative at the same horizon unless financing is blended with a wheeling agreement or a Section 12B tax incentive.
Verdict: Required for any long-horizon cost parity against diesel. Standalone EVSE NPV is unaffected; the PV/BESS case is its own financial project.
Throughput lifts to ~75,000 kWh/port/yr. Retail revenue at R 4.50/kWh × 3,000,000 kWh ≈ R 13.5 M/yr gross. After blended energy and demand cost at Megaflex ToU, net retail contribution is in the R 4–5 M/yr range — enough to materially compress the negative NPV in §6.
Verdict: Most plausible path to a positive 8-year NPV. Requires dual-metering, OCPP 2.0.1 roaming, and a Council for the Built Environment (CBE) / municipal operating permit (status PENDING).
Standards reference: IEC webstore for IEC 61851-1 and IEC 62196-2 publication pages (specific edition number PENDING verification). SANS 10142-1 available via SABS webstore (edition PENDING). Test reports must carry the issuing body's report number and accreditation scope; none are attached to this draft.
HS classification block — PENDING verification with SARS:| Component | HS code (working assumption) | Status |
|---|---|---|
| EVSE — DC fast charger (all kW bands) | 8504.40 | PENDING — confirm via SARS Customs Tariff lookup |
| Step-down transformer 2 MVA (liquid dielectric, > 650 kVA) | 8504.21 | PENDING — SARS lookup |
| Switchgear / protection panel (< 1,000 V boards) | 8537.10 | PENDING — SARS lookup |
| OCPP controller / gateway | 8537.10 | PENDING — SARS lookup (classify with switchgear if not standalone) |
| Canopy steel structure | 7308.90 | PENDING — SARS lookup (other structures of iron/steel) |
Use the SARS Customs Tariff online lookup at the link above before shipping; classification rulings can vary by port and by exact technical description. The codes shown are a working assumption, not a binding ruling.
Send a single RFQ using the line-item structure above (rows 1–32) plus the cert block from §9. TradVolt will route to vetted suppliers and consolidate responses within 10 working days. The Sungrow IDC60E / IDC120E family is the named equipment; alternative 60 kW / 120 kW DC dispenser models will be considered if accompanied by IEC 61851-1 test reports and a complete cert block.
Submit RFQ — Logistics Hub EVSE 40-Port ZA
Document control: TradVolt use-case/TCO R9. computed cashflow in §6 is the binding financial result; all per-km, NPV, and payback claims in the prose match §6. Inputs marked PENDING (Eskom Megaflex rates, SARS HS codes, OEM test reports, OEM list prices) must be re-confirmed before publication as final buyer-facing TCO. Bounded TradVolt model defaults listed in §2 (rows 22–32) are explicit assumptions, not sourced facts.