Depot Solar 700 kWp South Africa — Use-Case TCO Brief
Verdict (computed by tradvolt.com scenario model, scenario dated 2026-09-22). A 700 kWp rooftop grid-tied solar PV installation at a logistics depot in South Africa is financially attractive on a 20-year horizon at a 10.00 % real discount rate: NPV = ZAR 8,629,267.23, IRR = 22.93 %, simple payback = 4.90 years, discounted payback = 6.75 years, LCOE = ZAR 0.8688 / kWh. Equipment scope is roof-mounted PV modules + string inverters at a logistics depot, horizon 20 years, evidence pack reference date: 2026-09-22. Limitation: financial figures are computed for the stated scenario inputs only; sensitivities, capex revisions, or tariff changes require re-running the scenario model.
| Decision metric | Value | Threshold (rule of thumb) | Pass? |
|---|---|---|---|
| NPV (ZAR, 20-yr, 10% real) | 8,629,267.23 | > 0 | Yes |
| IRR | 22.93 % | > 10% (discount rate) | Yes |
| Simple payback | 4.90 yr | ≤ 7 yr | Yes |
| Discounted payback | 6.75 yr | ≤ 10 yr | Yes |
| LCOE | ZAR 0.8688 / kWh | < blended grid tariff ZAR 2.40/kWh | Yes |
| Total undiscounted cost (ZAR) | 9,096,241.82 | — | — |
| Total discounted cost (ZAR) | 7,519,952.58 | — | — |
| Total undiscounted benefit (ZAR) | 44,706,202.06 | — | — |
| Total discounted benefit (ZAR) | 16,149,219.81 | — | — |
Equipment reference set (real, publicly marketed models; named for procurement traceability; final selection confirmed at RFQ): PV modules: JinkoSolar Tiger Neo N-type 575 W (JKM575N-7RL3) — jinkosolar.com/en; Trina Solar Vertex N TSM-NEG19RC.27 580 W — trinasolar.com/us-en; LONGi Hi-MO 6 LR5-54HTH 470–490 W — longi.com/en. String inverters: Sungrow SG250HX (250 kW three-phase, 1500 Vdc) — sungrowpower.com/en; Huawei SUN2000-330KTL-H1 (300 kW, 1500 Vdc) — solar.huawei.com/en; Growatt MAX 250KTL3-X HV — growatt.com. Mounting structures: K2 Systems SingleRail / MultiRail aluminium kit family — k2-systems.com/en (manual revision confirmed at RFQ; K2 datasheets are bot-walled). Model names above are publicly marketed product lines on each vendor's English-language landing page. Final electrical limits (torque, max system voltage, SOC windows if storage is later added) must be confirmed against the OEM installation manual revision named on the RFQ award.
1. Scope and Method
Total cost of ownership for a 700 kWp (DC) rooftop grid-tied solar PV installation at a logistics depot in South Africa, 20-year horizon, 10.00 % real discount rate. Includes capex, O&M, performance degradation, avoided-grid tariff savings. Excludes battery storage, wheeling, carbon-credit monetization. Financial figures below are produced by the tradvolt.com scenario TCO model from the inputs stated in §2 and the bounded assumptions in §3; they are computed for this scenario only.
2. Inputs Table
| Input | Value | Unit | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| System size | 700 | kWp (DC) | tradvolt.com editorial specification (2026-01-15) |
| Specific yield (Year 1) | 1,500 | kWh/kWp/yr | CSIR Solar PV Irradiation Map (CSIR) |
| Annual performance degradation | 0.5 | %/yr (linear) | Jordan & Kurtz, NREL "Photovoltaic Degradation Rates—An Analytical Review" |
| Installed capex benchmark | 9,500 | ZAR/kWp (turnkey, 2025) | GreenCape "Solar PV Value Chain Report", 2024 edition |
| Annual O&M (fixed) | 1.0 | % of capex/yr | GreenCape "Solar PV Value Chain Report", 2024 edition |
| Escalation rate (O&M, grid tariff) | 6.0 | %/yr (CPI proxy) | Statistics South Africa CPI release (Dec-2025) |
| Grid tariff (avoided, blended) | 2.40 | ZAR/kWh (2026, blended) | Eskom Megaflex tariff schedule, 2026 published rates |
| Discount rate (for NPV) | 10.0 | %/yr real | tradvolt.com editorial assumption (2026-01-15) |
| Analysis horizon | 20 | years | tradvolt.com editorial specification (2026-01-15) |
3. Bounded Model Assumptions
The following inputs were not specified in the draft scenario and are presented as explicit bounded defaults used by the scenario model. They are model assumptions, not sourced facts.
| Assumption key | Bounded default used | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| residual_value.amount | 0 ZAR | 20-yr horizon matches standard PV economic life; no terminal salvage recognized. |
| residual_value.year | n/a (terminal = horizon end) | Residual treated as zero at end of Year 20. |
| asset.pv.self_consumption_pct | 100 % | Depot load assumed to absorb all PV generation on-site during operating hours; no export. |
| asset.pv.export_tariff_per_kwh | 0.00 ZAR/kWh | No export revenue modelled; all generation displaces self-consumption at the avoided blended tariff of 2.40 ZAR/kWh (Eskom Megaflex 2026). |
4. TCO Summary (computed, scenario model output)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Currency | ZAR |
| Horizon (years) | 20 |
| Discount rate | 10.00 % |
| Total undiscounted cost (ZAR) | 9,096,241.82 |
| Total discounted cost / PV of costs (ZAR) | 7,519,952.58 |
| Total undiscounted benefit (ZAR) | 44,706,202.06 |
| Total discounted benefit (ZAR) | 16,149,219.81 |
| NPV (ZAR) | 8,629,267.23 |
| IRR | 0.2293 |
| Simple payback (year) | 4.90 |
| Discounted payback (year) | 6.75 |
| LCOE (ZAR/kWh) | 0.8688 |
5. Year-by-Year Cash Flow (computed)
| Year | Cost (ZAR) | Benefit (ZAR) | Net (ZAR) | Discount factor | Discounted net (ZAR) | Energy (kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6,650,000.00 | 0.0000 | -6,650,000.00 | 1.00 | -6,650,000.00 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 66,500.00 | 1,286,250.00 | 1,219,750.00 | 0.9091 | 1,108,863.64 | 1,050,000.00 |
| 2 | 70,490.00 | 1,356,607.88 | 1,286,117.88 | 0.8264 | 1,062,907.33 | 1,044,750.00 |
| 3 | 74,719.40 | 1,430,814.33 | 1,356,094.93 | 0.7513 | 1,018,854.19 | 1,039,526.25 |
| 4 | 79,202.56 | 1,509,079.87 | 1,429,877.31 | 0.6830 | 976,625.44 | 1,034,328.62 |
| 5 | 83,954.72 | 1,591,626.54 | 1,507,671.82 | 0.6209 | 936,145.58 | 1,029,156.98 |
| 6 | 88,992.00 | 1,678,688.51 | 1,589,696.51 | 0.5645 | 897,342.24 | 1,024,011.19 |
| 7 | 94,331.52 | 1,770,512.77 | 1,676,181.25 | 0.5132 | 860,146.02 | 1,018,891.13 |
| 8 | 99,991.41 | 1,867,359.82 | 1,767,368.41 | 0.4665 | 824,490.41 | 1,013,796.68 |
| 9 | 105,990.90 | 1,969,504.40 | 1,863,513.51 | 0.4241 | 790,311.64 | 1,008,727.70 |
| 10 | 112,350.35 | 2,077,236.29 | 1,964,885.94 | 0.3855 | 757,548.59 | 1,003,684.06 |
| 11 | 119,091.37 | 2,190,861.12 | 2,071,769.75 | 0.3505 | 726,142.66 | 998,665.64 |
| 12 | 126,236.85 | 2,310,701.22 | 2,184,464.37 | 0.3186 | 696,037.67 | 993,672.31 |
| 13 | 133,811.07 | 2,437,096.58 | 2,303,285.51 | 0.2897 | 667,179.77 | 988,703.95 |
| 14 | 141,839.73 | 2,570,405.76 | 2,428,566.03 | 0.2633 | 639,517.34 | 983,760.43 |
| 15 | 150,350.11 | 2,711,006.96 | 2,560,656.84 | 0.2394 | 613,000.89 | 978,841.63 |
| 16 | 159,371.12 | 2,859,299.04 | 2,699,927.92 | 0.2176 | 587,582.98 | 973,947.42 |
| 17 | 168,933.39 | 3,015,702.69 | 2,846,769.31 | 0.1978 | 563,218.13 | 969,077.68 |
| 18 | 179,069.39 | 3,180,661.63 | 3,001,592.24 | 0.1799 | 539,862.75 | 964,232.29 |
| 19 | 189,813.55 | 3,354,643.82 | 3,164,830.27 | 0.1635 | 517,475.04 | 959,411.13 |
| 20 | 201,202.37 | 3,538,142.84 | 3,336,940.47 | 0.1486 | 496,014.94 | 954,614.07 |
6. Interpretation
Under the base-case inputs (1,500 kWh/kWp/yr specific yield, 0.5 %/yr linear degradation, 1 % of capex/yr O&M escalating at 6 %, avoided blended Eskom tariff 2.40 ZAR/kWh escalating at 6 %, 10.00 % real discount rate, 20-year horizon), the scenario model returns a strongly positive NPV of ZAR 8,629,267.23 against total discounted costs of ZAR 7,519,952.58 and total discounted benefits of ZAR 16,149,219.81. Discounted payback of 6.75 years is well inside the 20-year asset life; LCOE of ZAR 0.8688/kWh is below the avoided grid tariff, so the project is self-financing on energy savings alone under the bounded assumptions of §3. If self-consumption_pct is reduced or grid-tariff escalation diverges from the CPI proxy, the LCOE-to-tariff headroom narrows and a re-run is required; do not extrapolate by hand.
7. Standards, Cert, and HS Code Reference
Standards referenced (named with designation + edition; catalogue page where deep URLs are not resolvable):
- IEC 61215 (crystalline silicon PV module design qualification) — see IEC Webstore catalogue at webstore.iec.ch; cite designation IEC 61215:2021 in vendor datasheets.
- IEC 61730 (PV module safety qualification) — see IEC Webstore catalogue at webstore.iec.ch; cite designation IEC 61730-1:2016 / IEC 61730-2:2016. UL equivalent for North American buyers: UL 61730-1.
- SANS 475 (fixed capacitor and inverter compliance for grid-tied systems) — NRCS Letter of Authority process; verify at SARS customs/tariff pages.
Indicative HS codes (WCO 2022). Cross-check at the SARS Tariff Search portal before each shipment.
| Component | HS Code (WCO 2022) | Lookup path | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystalline silicon PV cells | 8541.42 | SARS Tariff Search portal — sars.gov.za (Tariffs → Tariff Search) | Lookup pending — confirm before shipping |
| PV modules (assembled) | 8541.43 | SARS Tariff Search portal — sars.gov.za (Tariffs → Tariff Search) | Lookup pending — confirm before shipping |
| String inverters > 100 kVA | 8504.40 | SARS Tariff Search portal — sars.gov.za (Tariffs → Tariff Search) | Lookup pending — confirm before shipping |
| Mounting structures, aluminium | 7610.90 | SARS Tariff Search portal — sars.gov.za (Tariffs → Tariff Search) | Lookup pending — confirm before shipping |
Confirm current MFN duty rates via the SARS portal sars.gov.za (Tariffs → Tariff Search) and verify any ITAC rebate eligibility (Rebate Item 460.11 for renewable-energy components, as amended) before each shipment. For classification disputes, refer to the WCO Compendium of Classification Opinions and General Rules of Interpretation (GRI 1 + GRI 6). For cross-reference, EU importers may consult the TARIC consultation tool at ec.europa.eu TARIC.
Disclaimer: HS codes and duty rates are marked PENDING and must be verified against the official SARS tariff at the time of import. tradvolt.com does not warrant accuracy of customs classifications or duty rates and accepts no liability for clearance delays or assessment differences.
8. Sources (numbered, mapped 1:1 to input rows)
| # | Source | Input row(s) supported | URL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSIR Solar PV Irradiation Map (Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, South Africa) | Specific yield (Year 1) 1,500 kWh/kWp/yr | csir.co.za (Solar PV Irradiation Map publication page; specific dataset URL pending confirmation) |
| 2 | Jordan, D. & Kurtz, S., "Photovoltaic Degradation Rates—An Analytical Review," NREL | Annual performance degradation 0.5 %/yr | nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51664.pdf |
| 3 | GreenCape "Solar PV Value Chain Report", 2024 edition | Installed capex benchmark 9,500 ZAR/kWp; Annual O&M 1 % of capex/yr | green-cape.co.za (sector library page; specific 2024 edition PDF URL pending confirmation) |
| 4 | Statistics South Africa CPI release, December 2025 | Escalation rate (O&M, grid tariff) 6 %/yr (CPI proxy) | statssa.gov.za (P0141 CPI release page; December 2025 release URL pending confirmation) |
| 5 | Eskom Megaflex tariff schedule, 2026 published rates | Grid tariff (avoided, blended) 2.40 ZAR/kWh | Eskom tariffs hub (2026 municipal Megaflex schedule; historic PDF superseded) |
| 6 | tradvolt.com editorial specification / assumption (2026-01-15) | System size 700 kWp; Horizon 20 yr; Discount rate 10.00 % real | tradvolt.com |
Where a deep URL on a third-party domain could not be verified as a stable direct link, the source's official home page is given and the specific document URL is marked pending confirmation. Numbers above are anchored to the named publication, not to the home page.
9. CTAs
Single RFQ anchor: Request an RFQ via the tradvolt.com RFQ form. Equipment specs, OEM manual revisions, and HS-coded line items are finalized on the RFQ; this brief is decision-support only.