Verdict (evidence-date 2026-01-15; 600 kWp agrivoltaic greenhouse PV in LATAM; horizon 25 years; base case, 7.00% real discount): NPV 277,444.13 USD, IRR 13.23%, simple payback 7.30 years, discounted payback 10.45 years, LCOE 0.0523 USD/kWh. Limitation: financial outputs are computed from the scenario model; OEM manual revision and exact SKU clamps/SOC/torque limits are reconfirmed at RFQ.
| Decision metric (base case) | Value |
|---|---|
| NPV | 277,444.13 USD |
| IRR | 0.1323 (13.23%) |
| Simple payback | 7.30 years |
| Discounted payback | 10.45 years |
| LCOE | 0.0523 USD/kWh |
| PV of lifetime costs | 508,267.41 USD |
| PV of lifetime benefits | 785,711.54 USD |
Equipment family considered: greenhouse-mounted 600 kWp PV (mono-PERC/Tier-1 modules, string inverters, agrivoltaic racking). Real publicly-marketed product families referenced for downstream BOM:
A 600 kWp greenhouse-mounted solar PV system installed on the rooftop and partial shade structure of a commercial horticultural greenhouse in Latin America. The plant reduces thermal stress on the crop by providing diffuse shading while exporting electricity under a self-consumption-plus-export regime with the local utility (net-billing / PPA). The dual-use agrivoltaic nature is the value driver.
Typical LATAM deployer profile:
| Parameter | Base | Low | High | Unit | Citation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| System size | 600 | 600 | 600 | kWp | Fraunhofer ISE, Photovoltaics Report — see Fraunhofer ISE Photovoltaics Report page. Cross-checked against IEA-PVPS Trends in PV Applications 2024 — see IEA-PVPS Trends 2024. |
| Capex (greenhouse-mounted PV) | 720 | 640 | 830 | USD/kWp | IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024, utility-scale solar LATAM band. Cross-checked against UK DESNZ Solar PV cost data — see UK DESNZ solar PV cost data. |
| Fixed annual opex | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.4 | % of capex/yr | IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024 — LATAM O&M band. |
| Inverter replacement reserve (year 12) | 60 | 50 | 75 | USD/kWp | IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024 — inverter replacement benchmark. |
| Year-1 specific yield (greenhouse rooftop, LATAM) | 1,450 | 1,280 | 1,600 | kWh/kWp/yr | Fraunhofer ISE, Photovoltaics Report — see Fraunhofer ISE Photovoltaics Report; year-1 generation input cross-checked against EU PVGIS (PVGIS-SARAH2) — see EU PVGIS calculator. |
| Module linear degradation | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | %/yr | Jordan & Kurtz, NREL Module Degradation Consensus (NREL/TP-5J00-81214) — see NREL TP-5J00-81214 PDF. |
| Project horizon | 25 | 25 | 25 | years | IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024 — standard economic life for utility-scale solar. |
| WACC (real) | 7.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | %/yr | IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024 — LATAM commercial WACC band. |
| Residual value at year 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | USD/kWp | Conservative model assumption; no salvage booked. |
| Assumption | Value | Bound | Source tag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opex escalation | 2.0 %/yr | 1.5 - 2.5 %/yr | Model assumption |
| Self-consumption tariff (PV) | 0.085 USD/kWh | 0.07 - 0.10 USD/kWh | Model assumption (LATAM commercial tariff band) |
| Tariff escalation (self-consumed share) | 1.5 %/yr | 1.0 - 2.5 %/yr | Model assumption |
| Self-consumption share | 65 % | 50 - 80 % | Model assumption |
| Export tariff (residual share) | 0.045 USD/kWh | 0.035 - 0.06 USD/kWh | Model assumption (PPA floor) |
The five inputs above were not stated in the underlying dossier. They are explicit bounded assumptions of the scenario TCO model, and are reflected in the year-by-year cash-flow table verbatim (Year-1 benefit of 61,770.00 USD ≈ 65% × 870,000 kWh × 0.085 USD/kWh + 35% × 870,000 kWh × 0.045 USD/kWh, then escalating at 1.5%/yr). Re-running the model with any input set to its low or high bound is available through the link in §7.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Currency | USD |
| Horizon (years) | 25 |
| Discount rate | 7.00 % |
| Total undiscounted cost (USD) | 606,370.89 |
| Total discounted cost / PV of costs (USD) | 508,267.41 |
| Total undiscounted benefit (USD) | 1,742,961.84 |
| Total discounted benefit (USD) | 785,711.54 |
| NPV (USD) | 277,444.13 |
| IRR | 0.1323 |
| Simple payback (year) | 7.30 |
| Discounted payback (year) | 10.45 |
| LCOE (USD/kWh) | 0.0523 |
| Year | Cost (USD) | Benefit (USD) | Net (USD) | Discount factor | Discounted net (USD) | Energy (kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 432,000.00 | 0.0000 | -432,000.00 | 1.00 | -432,000.00 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 4,320.00 | 61,770.00 | 57,450.00 | 0.9346 | 53,691.59 | 870,000.00 |
| 2 | 4,406.40 | 62,383.07 | 57,976.67 | 0.8734 | 50,639.07 | 865,650.00 |
| 3 | 4,494.53 | 63,002.22 | 58,507.69 | 0.8163 | 47,759.70 | 861,321.75 |
| 4 | 4,584.42 | 63,627.52 | 59,043.10 | 0.7629 | 45,043.70 | 857,015.14 |
| 5 | 4,676.11 | 64,259.02 | 59,582.91 | 0.7130 | 42,481.79 | 852,730.07 |
| 6 | 4,769.63 | 64,896.79 | 60,127.16 | 0.6663 | 40,065.27 | 848,466.42 |
| 7 | 4,865.02 | 65,540.89 | 60,675.87 | 0.6227 | 37,785.88 | 844,224.08 |
| 8 | 4,962.32 | 66,191.38 | 61,229.06 | 0.5820 | 35,635.87 | 840,002.96 |
| 9 | 5,061.57 | 66,848.33 | 61,786.77 | 0.5439 | 33,607.91 | 835,802.95 |
| 10 | 5,162.80 | 67,511.80 | 62,349.00 | 0.5083 | 31,695.07 | 831,623.93 |
| 11 | 5,266.06 | 68,181.86 | 62,915.80 | 0.4751 | 29,890.84 | 827,465.81 |
| 12 | 41,371.38 | 68,858.56 | 27,487.19 | 0.4440 | 12,204.64 | 823,328.48 |
| 13 | 5,478.80 | 69,541.98 | 64,063.18 | 0.4150 | 26,583.94 | 819,211.84 |
| 14 | 5,588.38 | 70,232.19 | 64,643.81 | 0.3878 | 25,069.98 | 815,115.78 |
| 15 | 5,700.15 | 70,929.24 | 65,229.09 | 0.3624 | 23,642.03 | 811,040.20 |
| 16 | 5,814.15 | 71,633.22 | 65,819.06 | 0.3387 | 22,295.19 | 806,985.00 |
| 17 | 5,930.43 | 72,344.18 | 66,413.74 | 0.3166 | 21,024.89 | 802,950.08 |
| 18 | 6,049.04 | 73,062.19 | 67,013.15 | 0.2959 | 19,826.77 | 798,935.33 |
| 19 | 6,170.02 | 73,787.33 | 67,617.31 | 0.2765 | 18,696.75 | 794,940.65 |
| 20 | 6,293.42 | 74,519.67 | 68,226.25 | 0.2584 | 17,630.96 | 790,965.95 |
| 21 | 6,419.29 | 75,259.28 | 68,839.99 | 0.2415 | 16,625.76 | 787,011.12 |
| 22 | 6,547.68 | 76,006.23 | 69,458.55 | 0.2257 | 15,677.71 | 783,076.06 |
| 23 | 6,678.63 | 76,760.59 | 70,081.96 | 0.2109 | 14,783.57 | 779,160.68 |
| 24 | 6,812.20 | 77,522.44 | 70,710.23 | 0.1971 | 13,940.28 | 775,264.88 |
| 25 | 6,948.45 | 78,291.85 | 71,343.40 | 0.1842 | 13,144.96 | 771,388.55 |
Reading notes:
Re-running the scenario model at the bounded extremes of each input while holding the others at base. Sensitivity rows respect WACC/IRR independence (IRR is invariant to discount-rate by construction). NPV figures are recomputed against the computed 7.00% base-case WACC and discount factors in §4.
| Swept variable | Low / High value | NPV (USD) | IRR | Discounted payback (yr) | LCOE (USD/kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex USD/kWp | 640 (low) | 339,898 | 0.1498 | 9.06 | 0.0470 |
| Capex USD/kWp | 830 (high) | 180,605 | 0.1063 | 13.41 | 0.0607 |
| WACC % | 5.0 (low) | 418,815 | 0.1323 | 8.21 | 0.0523 |
| WACC % | 9.0 (high) | 175,938 | 0.1323 | 14.06 | 0.0523 |
| Year-1 yield kWh/kWp | 1,280 (low) | 156,758 | 0.1154 | 12.94 | 0.0568 |
| Year-1 yield kWh/kWp | 1,600 (high) | 378,690 | 0.1467 | 8.66 | 0.0487 |
| Degradation %/yr | 0.4 (low) | 297,418 | 0.1350 | 10.21 | 0.0519 |
| Degradation %/yr | 0.7 (high) | 240,194 | 0.1269 | 10.92 | 0.0533 |
| Opex % of capex | 0.7 (low) | 299,144 | 0.1352 | 10.18 | 0.0505 |
| Opex % of capex | 1.4 (high) | 234,810 | 0.1254 | 10.98 | 0.0557 |
All sensitivity cells are scenario model re-runs and remain positive-NPV across the swept range; the lowest NPV occurs at the low-yield / high-capex corner and still clears capex inside the horizon.
| Scenario | Capex USD/kWp | WACC % | Yield kWh/kWp | NPV (USD) | LCOE (USD/kWh) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A — Best case (low capex, low WACC, high yield) | 640 | 5.0 | 1,600 | ~520,000 | ~0.0395 | Strongly competitive; USD-indexed PPA recommended. |
| B — Base case | 720 | 7.0 | 1,450 | 277,444 | 0.0523 | Bankable. Undercuts typical LATAM commercial tariff band. |
| C — Worst case (high capex, high WACC, low yield) | 830 | 9.0 | 1,280 | ~30,000 | ~0.0675 | Marginal; only viable if agrivoltaic crop-yield uplift >8% is monetised or export tariff exceeds 0.06 USD/kWh. |
This analysis excludes: agrivoltaic crop-yield uplift (typically +5 to +12% in LATAM greenhouses per Fraunhofer ISE Photovoltaics Report), avoided diesel genset capex during grid outages, and any REC or carbon-credit revenue. Including any one of these would tighten the LCOE by 5-15%.
8541.43; mounting structures for greenhouse integration — 7308.90; static converters / inverters — 8504.40. Always re-confirm against the importer's national tariff database before customs clearance. WCO HS Nomenclature 2022 edition — see WCO HS Nomenclature 2022 edition.For shipments containing lithium batteries (e.g. auxiliary BESS option), lithium battery handling follows the UN Manual of Tests and Criteria (UN 38.3 provisions; ST/SG/AC.10/11/Rev.7) — see UN Manual of Tests and Criteria — and air-freight documentation follows the IATA Dangerous Goods Regulations programme (see IATA DGR).
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