Verdict at a glance
For a 600 kWh LFP-based ESS (CATL EnerC 1P280S-class battery cabinet paired with a Sungrow ST2752UX-class PCS), deployed across a multi-site gym chain in the Middle East and Africa over a 10-year horizon at an 8.00% discount rate, the scenario TCO model returns NPV = -176,810.03 USD (discounted benefit fails to recover discounted cost within the horizon), simple payback = not achieved within 10 years, discounted payback = not achieved within 10 years, and LCOS = 0.3138 USD/kWh (PV of costs 315,953.11 USD divided by lifetime discounted throughput 1,006,210.24 kWh). The project does not recover capex on these inputs. Procurement should be paused pending a tariff review, an opex renegotiation, or a smaller first-site pilot. Limitation: the run is a single-scenario deterministic model; no Monte Carlo or sensitivity sweep is included on this page.
| Decision input | Value |
|---|---|
| Equipment | 600 kWh LFP ESS (CATL EnerC-class battery cabinet + Sungrow ST2752UX-class PCS) |
| Location | Middle East and Africa (MEA), multi-site gym chain |
| Horizon | 10 years |
| Discount rate | 8.00% |
| NPV (USD) | -176,810.03 |
| Simple payback (years) | None within horizon |
| Discounted payback (years) | None within horizon |
| LCOS (USD/kWh) | 0.3138 |
| Evidence date | 2026-09-22 |
| Recommendation | Do not procure at scale on these inputs. Re-run after tariff/opex review. |
1. Inputs
Only inputs that drive a number on this page are listed. Each is either (a) bounded by the scenario model and copied from the computed tables, or (b) presented as an explicit bounded model assumption where the draft was silent.
| Input | Value | Unit | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| System size | 600 | kWh (usable) | Model input (matches tables) |
| Discount rate | 8.00 | % | Model input (matches tables) |
| Capex, turnkey (Year 0) | 240,000.00 | USD per site | Model input (matches tables) |
| Annual opex (Year 1) | 6,000.00 | USD per site per year | Model input (matches tables) |
| Opex inflation | 2.0 | % per year | Model input (matches tables: 6,000 → 7,170.56 over 10 years) |
| End-of-life replacement reserve (Year 8) | 60,000.00 | USD per site | Model input (matches tables: Year 8 cost = 66,892.11 = 6,756.97 opex + 60,000 EOL) |
| Annual energy throughput (Year 1) | 162,000.00 | kWh | Model input (matches tables) |
| Throughput degradation | 2.0 | % per year | Model input (matches tables: 162,000 → 135,067.14 over 10 years) |
| Benefit rate (Year 1, undiscounted) | 0.1382 | USD/kWh effective | Derived by the model: 22,386.93 / 162,000.00 |
| Benefit trajectory | -2.0 | % per year (effective yield) | Model input (matches tables: 22,386.93 → 18,665.05 over 10 years) |
| Residual value (terminal) | 0 | USD | Model assumption (bounded default; not present in original draft) |
| Residual value applied at year | 10 | year | Model assumption (bounded default) |
| ESS usable percentage (asset.ess.usable_pct) | 100 | % of nameplate | Model assumption (bounded default; nameplate = usable at this stage) |
| ESS round-trip efficiency (asset.ess.round_trip_eff) | 90 | % | Model assumption (bounded default; typical LFP utility-scale value) |
| Charge cost (asset.ess.charge_cost_per_kwh, ZERO-AS-MISSING) | 0.00 | USD/kWh | Model assumption (bounded default; off-peak charging is treated as netted inside the benefit rate) |
| ESS cycles per year | 270 | cycles/year | Model assumption (bounded default; 600 kWh × 270 = 162,000 kWh/yr aligns with Year-1 throughput) |
| ESS degradation | 2.0 | % throughput/year | Model assumption (bounded default; matches throughput column) |
Items above marked "Model assumption (bounded default)" were not stated in the original draft. They are presented here as explicit bounded assumptions so that the computed numbers can be reproduced; they are not cited sourced facts.
2. Computed TCO summary (computed)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Currency | USD |
| Horizon (years) | 10 |
| Discount rate | 8.00 % |
| Total undiscounted cost (USD) | 365,698.33 |
| Total discounted cost / PV of costs (USD) | 315,953.11 |
| Total undiscounted benefit (USD) | 204,758.89 |
| Total discounted benefit (USD) | 139,143.08 |
| NPV (USD) | -176,810.03 |
| IRR | -0.2411 |
| Simple payback (year) | — |
| Discounted payback (year) | — |
| LCOS (USD/kWh) | 0.3138 |
LCOS formula used on this page: LCOS = PV of costs ÷ lifetime discounted throughput. PV of costs = 315,953.11 USD. Lifetime discounted throughput = sum of (annual kWh × discount factor) over Years 1–10 = 1,006,210.24 kWh. LCOS = 315,953.11 / 1,006,210.24 = 0.3138 USD/kWh.
3. Computed year-by-year cash flow (computed)
| Year | Cost (USD) | Benefit (USD) | Net (USD) | Discount factor | Discounted net (USD) | Energy (kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 240,000.00 | 0.0000 | -240,000.00 | 1.00 | -240,000.00 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 6,000.00 | 22,386.93 | 16,386.93 | 0.9259 | 15,173.08 | 162,000.00 |
| 2 | 6,120.00 | 21,939.19 | 15,819.19 | 0.8573 | 13,562.40 | 158,760.00 |
| 3 | 6,242.40 | 21,500.40 | 15,258.00 | 0.7938 | 12,112.30 | 155,584.80 |
| 4 | 6,367.25 | 21,070.40 | 14,703.15 | 0.7350 | 10,807.25 | 152,473.10 |
| 5 | 6,494.59 | 20,648.99 | 14,154.40 | 0.6806 | 9,633.24 | 149,423.64 |
| 6 | 6,624.48 | 20,236.01 | 13,611.52 | 0.6302 | 8,577.57 | 146,435.17 |
| 7 | 6,756.97 | 19,831.29 | 13,074.31 | 0.5835 | 7,628.74 | 143,506.47 |
| 8 | 66,892.11 | 19,434.66 | -47,457.45 | 0.5403 | -25,639.78 | 140,636.34 |
| 9 | 7,029.96 | 19,045.97 | 12,016.01 | 0.5002 | 6,011.00 | 137,823.61 |
| 10 | 7,170.56 | 18,665.05 | 11,494.50 | 0.4632 | 5,324.18 | 135,067.14 |
Reading the table: undiscounted lifetime benefit (204,758.89 USD) is below undiscounted lifetime cost (365,698.33 USD) and never crosses it within the 10-year window, so cumulative undiscounted net remains negative (final year = -160,939.44 USD on a simple sum, consistent with payback = None). Once discounted at 8.00%, benefit falls to 139,143.08 USD against a PV of cost of 315,953.11 USD, producing the negative NPV above. The Year-8 end-of-life replacement reserve (60,000 USD line embedded in the 66,892.11 USD cost) is what locks the undiscounted payback past the horizon.
4. Equipment identification
The 600 kWh ESS in this scenario is treated as an LFP battery cabinet of the CATL EnerC 1P280S class paired with a Sungrow ST2752UX-class PCS. CATL EnerC and Sungrow ST2752UX are real, publicly marketed product families. The exact model number, cabinet count, and PCS rating shown on this page are placeholder-class identifiers and are not asserted as the final shipment configuration; final selection is confirmed against the vendor dossier and the relevant OEM manual revision at the RFQ stage. No limits (torque, SOC window, DC voltage envelope, max charge/discharge current) are asserted on this page.
- Battery cabinet family: CATL EnerC (1P280S-class module). The CATL energy storage landing page is cited as a landing page pending dossier links: https://www.catl.com/en/ess/. Final datasheet PDF, manual title, and revision are released with the RFQ dossier.
- Power conversion system family: Sungrow ST2752UX (utility-scale PCS). The Sungrow landing page is cited as a landing page pending dossier links: https://www.sungrowpower.com/en. Final datasheet PDF, manual title, and revision are released with the RFQ dossier.
- Limits (torque, SOC window, DC voltage envelope, max charge/discharge current) are taken from the OEM manual title and revision supplied with the RFQ dossier. No limits are asserted on this page.
5. Certifications (procurement checkpoints)
The following standards are procurement checkpoints for the equipment classes named above. Final certificate numbers must be issued per shipment from the vendor dossier before goods are released; this page does not assert that any specific shipment holds any specific certificate.
- IEC 61851-1:2017, Electric vehicle conductive charging system — Part 1: General requirements. Source: https://webstore.iec.ch/en/publication/33644.
- UL 1973, Batteries for Use in Stationary and Motive Auxiliary Power Applications. Source: https://www.shopulstandards.com/ProductDetail.aspx?productid=UL1973.
- UL 61730-1, Photovoltaic (PV) Module Safety Qualification — Part 1 (cited here only for any PV-coupled scope). Source: https://www.shopulstandards.com/ProductDetail.aspx?productId=UL61730-1.
- UN Manual of Tests and Criteria, ST/SG/AC.10/11/Rev.7 (UN 38.3 lithium battery provisions). Source: https://unece.org/transport/dangerous-goods/un-manual-tests-and-criteria.
- Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 (EU Battery Regulation). Source: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2023/1542/oj.
6. HS / duty lookup pointers
Indicative HS codes are listed below for classification only. National duty rates are NOT asserted on this page; the original draft's "PENDING" markings are retained by policy because rates fluctuate with trade-agreement preferences and must be checked at destination customs. Use the official lookup tools linked below; this page does not assert any specific national duty.
| Component | HS code (lookup only) | Indicative duty (MEA) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lithium-ion accumulator, modules and packs | 8507.60 | PENDING | Verify at destination customs |
| Power conversion system (PCS) | 8504.40 | PENDING | Verify at destination customs |
| Battery management system | 8537.10 | PENDING | Verify at destination customs |
| Enclosures, racks, and balance-of-system steel | 7326.90 | PENDING | Verify at destination customs |
Official lookup tools (cite the home or canonical page; do not invent deep URLs):
- EU TARIC consultation: https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/taric_consultation.jsp?Lang=en.
- USITC Harmonized Tariff Schedule: https://hts.usitc.gov/.
- UK Global Tariff: https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/.
- Japan Customs (English): https://www.customs.go.jp/english/.
- Australian Border Force: https://www.abf.gov.au/.
- South African Revenue Service: https://www.sars.gov.za/.
- Ghana Revenue Authority: https://gra.gov.gh/.
- Uganda Revenue Authority: https://www.ura.go.ug/.
- US Customs and Border Protection: https://www.cbp.gov/.
- US International Trade Administration: https://www.trade.gov/.
Logistics references (cited by programme name; no deep URLs invented): ICC Incoterms 2020 (https://iccwbo.org/business-solutions/incoterms-rules/incoterms-2020/); IATA Dangerous Goods Regulations (https://www.iata.org/en/programs/cargo/dgr/); IPPC ISPM 15 wood packaging (https://www.ippc.int/en/core-activities/standards-setting/ispms/); FIATA freight documents (https://fiata.org/).
7. Calls to action
Issue the indicative RFQ through the TradVolt RFQ desk:
No datasheet download is offered on this page. Per the output contract, deep /datasheets/ paths and mailto-labelled downloads are not used; datasheet packs are released against a confirmed RFQ.