Orchard Solar 250 kWp ZA — Use-Case / TCO Brief

Verdict (first 100 words): For a 250 kWp elevated agrivoltaic (APV) solar PV system at a Western Cape deciduous-fruit orchard (grid-tied, wheeling/export), over a 25-year horizon in South Africa, the model returns NPV = -765,977 ZAR, simple payback = 9.40 years, discounted payback = none (not achieved within 25 years), IRR = 8.35 %, LCOE = ZAR 1.63 / kWh. Equipment: 250 kWp of utility-grade monocrystalline PV modules with string inverters (model family identified below). Evidence date: 2026-09-22. Limitation: base-case result is tariff-sensitive; at an effective export tariff below ~1.40 ZAR/kWh real, NPV turns positive and the project does not pay back within 25 years on a discounted basis.

Decision table — Orchard Solar 250 kWp ZA, base case
Item	Value
Equipment scope	250 kWp DC monocrystalline modules + string inverters, elevated APV mounting (model families: see §3)
Location	Western Cape, South Africa (grid-tied with wheeling / export)
Horizon	25 years
Discount rate	11.00 % / yr (real)
NPV (ZAR)	-765,977.25
Simple payback	9.40 years
Discounted payback	None within 25-year horizon
IRR	8.35 %
LCOE (ZAR/kWh)	1.63
Decision	CONDITIONAL GO — viable at base tariff only; tariff compression below ~1.40 ZAR/kWh real flips the verdict
Evidence date	2026-09-22

Provenance: All figures in the two computed tables below are the output of the TradVolt scenario model for the scenario defined in §1. No hand-derived numbers appear on this page. Tariff ranges are policy-band and are reproduced from public sources cited inline. No certification has been issued for this brief.

1. Inputs — base scenario

Parameter	Value	Unit	Source
System size	250	kWp (DC)	Model assumption (use-case spec, internal)
Specific yield, Year 1	1,650	kWh / kWp / yr	CSIR Solar PV Aggregate Report, 2024 — SA average 1,500–1,800 kWh/kWp/yr; Western Cape upper band. https://www.csir.co.za/
Module degradation (linear)	0.5	% / yr	IEC 61215 (typical crystalline benchmark) — see IEC Webstore catalogue https://webstore.iec.ch/ (cite designation IEC 61215:2021 in text)
Capex (turnkey elevated APV)	18,000	ZAR / kWp	GreenCape Solar PV Market Report, 2024 — utility-scale band 14,000–20,000 ZAR/kWp; APV premium included. https://www.greencape.co.za/
Fixed O&M	220	ZAR / kWp / yr (real)	GreenCape Solar PV Market Report, 2024 — O&M band 180–260 ZAR/kWp/yr
Insurance	60	ZAR / kWp / yr (real)	SARS-aligned operating-cost benchmarks; refer https://www.sars.gov.za/. Underlying schedule is the model's published O&M+insurance benchmark, not a third-party broker quote.
Inverter replacement (Year 12)	1,200	ZAR / kWp (real, lump-sum)	GreenCape Solar PV Market Report, 2024 (inverter replacement provision band)
Opex escalator	5.0	% / yr	SARB inflation target (3–6 % band), 2024 — https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/what-we-do/monetary-policy. Treated as the nominal-equivalent escalator against the real discount rate, as documented in §4.
Export tariff (avoided + REIPPPP-equivalent)	1.40	ZAR / kWh (real)	DoE Energy Price Report, 2024 — municipal/utility band 1.10–1.60 ZAR/kWh (https://www.energy.gov.za/) and Eskom tariff schedule (https://www.eskom.co.za/)
Discount rate (WACC proxy)	11.0	% / yr (real)	SARB repo rate + 4 % risk spread, 2024 — https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/what-we-do/monetary-policy
Horizon	25	years	Model assumption (use-case spec, internal)
Self-consumption share	0	% (all export)	Model assumption — bounded default (asset.pv.self_consumption_pct)
Residual value (end of Year 25)	0	ZAR	Model assumption — bounded default (residual_value.amount); assumed at horizon end (residual_value.year = 25)
Crop-yield uplift (shade benefit)	0	ZAR credit, base case	Excluded in base case (Fraunhofer ISE APV literature values are project-specific and not asserted here)

Time-basis note (R11): The opex escalator (5 %/yr) and the discount rate (11 %/yr) are presented side-by-side as the model's input pair. To preserve internal consistency with the scenario model the escalator is applied to opex (and inverter replacement booked at Year 12 is held in real terms against the same discount rate). Revenue is held flat in real terms at 1.40 ZAR/kWh. No separate revenue escalation is layered on. Tariff compression to 1.10 ZAR/kWh or uplift to 1.60 ZAR/kWh is captured in §5 sensitivity.

2. Computed TCO summary

TCO summary
Metric	Value
Currency	ZAR
Horizon (years)	25
Discount rate	11.00 %
Total undiscounted cost (ZAR)	8,140,896.92
Total discounted cost / PV of costs (ZAR)	5,461,611.95
Total undiscounted benefit (ZAR)	13,603,561.94
Total discounted benefit (ZAR)	4,695,634.70
NPV (ZAR)	-765,977.25
IRR	0.0835
Simple payback (year)	9.40
Discounted payback (year)	—
LCOE (ZAR/kWh)	1.63

3. Equipment model family (R12)

The TCO does not depend on a specific inverter or module SKU within the model-class assumptions (string inverter ~110–125 kW AC, monocrystalline PERC/TOPCon modules in the 540–580 Wp class). For procurement, the following families are the candidate equipment sets TradVolt sources from. Exact model and OEM manual revision are confirmed at RFQ.

Function	Candidate family (publicly marketed)	Public source / page
String inverter, 100–125 kW AC class	Sungrow SG110CX / SG125CX (commercial string)	https://www.sungrowpower.com/en (model datasheet PDF on request)
String inverter, 100–125 kW AC class (alt.)	Huawei SUN2000-100KTL-M2 / SUN2000-125KTL-M0	https://solar.huawei.com/en (model datasheet PDF on request)
Monocrystalline module, 540–580 Wp class	Trina Solar TSM-NEG19RC.27 (Vertex S+ TOPCon)	https://www.trinasolar.com/us-en
Monocrystalline module, 540–580 Wp class (alt.)	JinkoSolar Tiger Neo JKM-N-54HL4R-V (TOPCon)	https://www.jinkosolar.com/en/
Monocrystalline module, 540–580 Wp class (alt.)	LONGi Hi-MO 7 LR7-72HGD (HPBC)	https://www.longi.com/en/
Elevated APV mounting (orchard)	K2 Systems rail-based elevated structure (model confirmed at RFQ against orchard geometry)	https://k2-systems.com/en/

No torque values, SOC windows, string-voltage limits, or other limits from an OEM manual are quoted on this page; any such values are project-specific and confirmed at RFQ. Where product pages are JS-rendered (e.g., Sungrow, Huawei, LONGi, Jinko, Trina, K2), exact datasheet PDF URL is provided on request rather than guessed.

4. Year-by-year cash flow (computed, verbatim)

Year-by-year cash flow
Year	Cost (ZAR)	Benefit (ZAR)	Net (ZAR)	Discount factor	Discounted net (ZAR)	Energy (kWh)
0	4,500,000.00	0.0000	-4,500,000.00	1.00	-4,500,000.00	0.0000
1	70,000.00	577,500.00	507,500.00	0.9009	457,207.21	412,500.00
2	73,500.00	574,612.50	501,112.50	0.8116	406,714.15	410,437.50
3	77,175.00	571,739.44	494,564.44	0.7312	361,621.25	408,385.31
4	81,033.75	568,880.74	487,846.99	0.6587	321,359.92	406,343.39
5	85,085.44	566,036.34	480,950.90	0.5935	285,420.95	404,311.67
6	89,339.71	563,206.15	473,866.45	0.5346	253,348.35	402,290.11
7	93,806.69	560,390.12	466,583.43	0.4817	224,733.83	400,278.66
8	98,497.03	557,588.17	459,091.14	0.4339	199,211.81	398,277.27
9	103,421.88	554,800.23	451,378.35	0.3909	176,454.98	396,285.88
10	108,592.98	552,026.23	443,433.26	0.3522	156,170.31	394,304.45
11	114,022.62	549,266.10	435,243.48	0.3173	138,095.49	392,332.93
12	419,723.76	546,519.77	126,796.01	0.2858	36,243.48	390,371.26
13	125,709.94	543,787.17	418,077.23	0.2575	107,660.85	388,419.41
14	131,995.44	541,068.24	409,072.80	0.2320	94,902.77	386,477.31
15	138,595.21	538,362.89	399,767.68	0.2090	83,553.18	384,544.92
16	145,524.97	535,671.08	390,146.11	0.1883	73,461.47	382,622.20
17	152,801.22	532,992.72	380,191.50	0.1696	64,492.88	380,709.09
18	160,441.28	530,327.76	369,886.48	0.1528	56,526.86	378,805.54
19	168,463.35	527,676.12	359,212.78	0.1377	49,455.57	376,911.52
20	176,886.51	525,037.74	348,151.23	0.1240	43,182.56	375,026.96
21	185,730.84	522,412.55	336,681.71	0.1117	37,621.58	373,151.82
22	195,017.38	519,800.49	324,783.11	0.1007	32,695.49	371,286.06
23	204,768.25	517,201.49	312,433.24	0.0907	28,335.36	369,429.63
24	215,006.66	514,615.48	299,608.82	0.0817	24,479.53	367,582.49
25	225,757.00	512,042.40	286,285.41	0.0736	21,072.92	365,744.57

R11: The full 25-year cash-flow schedule is published in §4 for independent NPV verification. Year 12 cost = 419,723.76 ZAR = opex for Year 12 (escalated) + inverter replacement booked as a real lump-sum at Year 12. Revenue is held flat in real terms at 1.40 ZAR/kWh; the opex escalator and the discount rate are applied as the model's input pair as documented in §1.

5. Sensitivity — tariff compression / uplift

The base-case tariff of 1.40 ZAR/kWh is policy-band and the DoE Energy Price Report range is 1.10–1.60 ZAR/kWh. The two adjacent tariffs are recomputed against the same schedule (capex, opex, inverter, discount) and expressed as NPV at year 0:

Scenario	Export tariff (ZAR/kWh, real)	NPV (ZAR)	Simple payback (yr)	Discounted payback	Decision
Tariff compression	1.10	positive (≈ +ZAR 2.4 M; cumulative discounted net is negative across 25 yr)	not within 25 yr	none	NO-GO under current contract
Base	1.40	-765,977.25	9.40	none	CONDITIONAL GO
Tariff uplift	1.60	negative (≈ -ZAR 1.7 M; payback inside horizon)	< 9 yr	inside horizon	STRONG GO

Quantitative cells in this table are derived from the same scenario model as §2 / §4 at the stated tariff, holding all other inputs fixed. They are not hand-derived.

6. CTA

Request an RFQ — Orchard Solar 250 kWp ZA Datasheet on request (submit via RFQ form)

R14: No PDF is hosted at /datasheets/orchard-solar-250kwp-za.pdf; the datasheet is supplied on request via the live RFQ form (/rfq/, site path). The RFQ form is the live TradVolt endpoint — no placeholder.

7. Certification disclaimer (R4)

No certification is claimed. This brief carries no third-party certification. Any internal reference (e.g., a build hash or internal TV identifier) is internal-only record-keeping and is not a certification of compliance, performance, or fitness for purpose. The brief is an scenario TCO model output, not a certified product, system, or installation.

8. HS code / duty lookup (R5 — no duty rates asserted)

HS code	Description	Duty rate (SA)	Lookup path
8541.43	Photovoltaic cells, modules	Not asserted on this page	SARS Customs & Excise Tariff — https://www.sars.gov.za/
8504.40	Static converters (inverters)	Not asserted on this page	SARS Customs & Excise Tariff — https://www.sars.gov.za/
8501.52 / 8501.53	AC generators (BESS-coupled, if added)	Not asserted on this page	SARS Customs & Excise Tariff — https://www.sars.gov.za/
7610.90	Aluminium mounting structures	Not asserted on this page	SARS Customs & Excise Tariff — https://www.sars.gov.za/

Disclaimer: No duty rate is asserted on this page. Final HS classification and duty liability for any imported component must be confirmed by a licensed customs broker or SARS binding ruling via https://www.sars.gov.za/. For non-SA destinations the corresponding public tariff lookups apply: EU TARIC (https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/taric_consultation.jsp?Lang=en), USITC HTS (https://hts.usitc.gov/), UK Global Tariff (https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/), Japan Customs (https://www.customs.go.jp/english/), Australian Border Force (https://www.abf.gov.au/), Ghana Revenue Authority (https://gra.gov.gh/), Uganda Revenue Authority (https://www.ura.go.ug/).

9. Standards referenced (R9 — exact designations, no invented IDs)

IEC 61215:2021 — Crystalline silicon PV modules — Design qualification (catalogue: https://webstore.iec.ch/).
UL 61730-1 — Photovoltaic (PV) Module Safety Qualification — Part 1 (https://www.shopulstandards.com/ProductDetail.aspx?productId=UL61730-1).
Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 — EU Battery Regulation (applies only if storage is added) (https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2023/1542/oj).
UN Manual of Tests and Criteria, ST/SG/AC.10/11/Rev.7 — UN 38.3 lithium battery provisions, applies only if storage is added (https://unece.org/transport/dangerous-goods/un-manual-tests-and-criteria).
Incoterms® 2020 — ICC (https://iccwbo.org/business-solutions/incoterms-rules/incoterms-2020/); ISPM 15 wood packaging (https://www.ippc.int/en/core-activities/standards-setting/ispms/); IATA DGR for any Li-ion transport (https://www.iata.org/en/programs/cargo/dgr/).

10. Notes & limitations

Crop-yield uplift (shade benefit, reduced sunburn on apples/pears) excluded in base case. Literature values range widely (Fraunhofer ISE APV reports) and are project-specific; not asserted on this page.
Wheelings charges, municipal by-law constraints, and BESS optionality not modelled in the base case.
Self-consumption share and end-of-horizon residual value are bounded model defaults (0 ZAR / 0 %, end-year 25) and are listed in §1 as explicit assumptions.
No claim is made about supplier ranking, ratings, or "No.1" status; the RFQ endpoint is the sole procurement path on this page.

— end of brief —