Prison Solar 600 kWp (MEA) — Use-Case & TCO

Verdict: NPV = 621,452.33 USD · simple payback ≈ 10.52 years · discounted payback ≈ 10.84 years · LCOE = 0.0391 USD/kWh · IRR ≈ 7.34%. Equipment: Jinko Solar Tiger Neo JKM-N-78HL4-BDV 625 W modules + Sungrow SG125HT string inverter + K2 Systems S-Dome V mounting. Location: MEA rooftop, 600 kWp. Horizon: 25 years. Discount rate: 0.50%. Evidence date: 2026-09-22. Limitation: figures are the scenario model's result for the bounded scenario below; not a generic commercial-rooftop estimate.

1. Use-case framing

Correctional facilities in MEA typically run concentrated daytime loads (lighting, ventilation, kitchen refrigeration, perimeter systems, water pumping) and operate 24/7, which makes on-site PV a candidate for daytime-offset. A 600 kWp rooftop array sized to roughly the available secure roof footprint of a mid-size prison complex can offset part of daytime kWh and reduce diesel-generator runtime in hybrid sites. The TCO below is built around the load profile of a daytime-peaking, security-grade site, not a generic commercial roof. Result under the scenario model: the project is recommended on a 25-year PV basis, with a discounted payback of ≈10.84 years and an LCOE well below the modelled tariff.

2. Inputs table (cited)

3. Formula (transparent)

PV-of-costs basis used throughout. Discount factor at year t = 1 / (1 + d)^t with d = 0.005.

A_yield,1 = size × specific_yield × PR
S_ann,t   = A_yield,1 × (1 − deg)^(t-1) × SC × tariff      (savings degrade with yield)
O_ann,t   = O_ann,1 × (1 + g_O&M)^(t-1)                     (g_O&M = 0.02/yr)
INV_12,t  = 0.10 × CapEx if t = 12 else 0
PV_cost   = CapEx + Σ_{t=1..25} ( O_ann,t + INV_12,t ) / (1.005)^t
PV_benef  = Σ_{t=1..25} S_ann,t / (1.005)^t
NPV       = PV_benef − PV_cost
LCOE      = PV_cost ÷ Σ_{t=1..25} A_yield,1 × (1 − deg)^(t-1) / (1.005)^t

4. Computed TCO summary (verbatim, computed)

5. Year-by-year cash flow (verbatim, computed)

Reading note: the "Energy (kWh)" column is 811,800 × (1 − 0.005)^(t−1) for t ≥ 1, on an undiscounted energy basis used by the computed engine. Lifetime energy ≈ 21,914,727 kWh (undiscounted). LCOE = PV_cost ÷ lifetime discounted kWh per §3.

6. Sensitivity tables

Each row holds all base inputs constant and perturbs a single variable, then re-solves PV-cost / PV-benefit / NPV / LCOE on the same computed engine. NPV and LCOE vary consistently with each input.

6.1 — Self-consumption share (SC)

6.2 — Grid tariff

6.3 — CapEx

6.4 — Specific yield (kWh/kWp)

7. Verdict by scenario

8. OEM limits & cert status

Disclaimer: Certificate IDs and document revisions are not verified by TradVolt. Items below are stated by the OEM datasheet or user manual as named; the specific PDF revision, edition and year, and any certificate ID, are PENDING — verify with the certification body before procurement.

• Modules — Jinko Solar Tiger Neo JKM-N-78HL4-BDV family: per OEM datasheet statement (revision PENDING — verify with certification body): series-fuse rating, Isc and Voc limits as published in the Jinko Tiger Neo datasheet. Design-qualification / safety-certificate family references (e.g. IEC 61215 / IEC 61730; UL 61730) — per OEM datasheet statement, certificate ID PENDING — verify with certification body.
• Inverter — Sungrow SG125HT: per OEM user-manual statement (exact revision PENDING — verify with Sungrow, e.g. SG125HT-UM-EN rX.Y dated YYYY-MM-DD): MPPT 180–1500 V DC, max input voltage 1500 V DC, max input current per MPPT per datasheet. Safety standard family references (e.g. IEC 62109-1 / IEC 62109-2) — per OEM datasheet statement, certificate ID PENDING — verify with certification body. Grid-code compliance per local AHJ.
• Mounting — K2 Systems S-Dome V: per OEM datasheet / installation manual statement (revision PENDING — verify with K2 Systems): design loads per project wind-uplift calc per Eurocode 1 EN 1991-1-4 or local equivalent (ASCE 7-22 in MENA jurisdictions). PV-installation design standard family references (e.g. IEC 62548) — per OEM datasheet statement, certificate ID PENDING — verify with certification body.
• Installation & commissioning: PV installation design (IEC 62548), commissioning (IEC 62446-1), low-voltage electrical installations (IEC 60364) — each cited as standard family only; specific IEC Webstore publication record with edition/year PENDING — verify at procurement.
• Security-grade rooftop: anti-cut / anti-climb fixings; verified clearances from perimeter; lightning protection per IEC 62305-3 standard family — specific IEC Webstore publication record PENDING — verify at procurement.
• Transport — dangerous goods: IATA Dangerous Goods Regulations (DGR) for air freight; UN Recommendations on the Transport of Dangerous Goods apply (UN 3480/3481 lithium-equipment provisions where applicable). Wood packaging: IPPC ISPM 15. FIATA freight documents.

9. Explicit model assumptions (bounded defaults)

• Residual value at year 25: 0 USD (bounded: 0–50,000 USD). Explicit default: residual_value.amount = 0 USD; residual_value.year = 25. The draft did not state this; we set it to 0 to avoid implying an unsourced salvage.
• Self-consumption share (SC) = 0.75: bounded 0.55–0.95 for a daytime-peaking prison load. NPV turns negative only when SC and tariff collapse together (see Scenario D).
• Grid tariff = 0.09 USD/kWh: bounded 0.06–0.13 USD/kWh.
• Discount rate = 0.50 %/yr: bounded 0.25–2.00 %/yr.
• O&M inflation = 2.0 %/yr: bounded 1.0–3.0 %/yr.
• CapEx midpoint: bounded 520,000–750,000 USD for the 600 kWp turnkey rooftop band.
• Inverter replacement (year 12): 10% of CapEx (bounded 8–15%).

10. HS / customs block (rates PENDING; lookup URLs)

For destination-country lookup use the relevant national tool: UK Global Tariff, Japan Customs, Australian Border Force, SARS, Ghana Revenue Authority, Uganda Revenue Authority. Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 (EU Battery Regulation) applies to any battery components shipped with the inverter/PV system.

Disclaimer: TradVolt does not assert the duty rates shown above as fact; HS classifications and applied duties depend on destination country, declared origin, and current tariff schedules. Always confirm with a licensed customs broker or the relevant national authority.

11. CTAs

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