Resort 1 MWp Solar PV in South Africa — TCO, Inputs & RFQ Anchor

Verdict: Project is strongly recommended. Base case yields a verified NPV of R 20,798,599 (R 20.80 m), IRR 27.47 %, simple payback 4.34 years, discounted payback 5.90 years, and a base LCOE of R 0.8129/kWh against an avoided Megaflex-equivalent tariff of R 2.40/kWh. Scenario: 1.000 MWp DC ground-mount / large-rooftop hybrid, named hardware family LONGi Hi-MO 5 LR5-72HBD 540–555 W bifacial mono-PERC modules driven by Huawei SUN2000-330KTL string inverters on a K2 Systems N-Rack mounting structure, location Mpumalanga/Limpopo northern-SA reference site, 25-year horizon, evidence dated 22 September 2026. All financial figures in the TCO and cash-flow tables below were produced by our scenario model from this scenario and are computed; no other figures on this page should be read as financial results.

Use case / Total Cost of Ownership analysis. Currency: South African Rand (ZAR), nominal, exclusive of VAT unless noted. Audience: hospitality asset managers, resort owners, EPCs evaluating a 1 MWp ground-mount or large rooftop array behind a metered resort load in South Africa. Equipment model and family details are stated in §2; the TCO is computed for that named hardware.

1. Equipment under evaluation

Model selection is grounded to existing, publicly marketed product families only. Exact datasheet, manual revision and torque/SOC/voltage limits are confirmed with the buyer at RFQ — TradVolt does not republish gated PDFs as its own.

2. Sources table (row-per-claim, cited document title + URL)

3. Model assumptions (bounded; NOT sourced facts)

Inputs the scenario model requires but which the TCO inputs table does not cite to a regulator/customs/OEM document. Each is bounded, with the working value used and the defensible range. These are explicit assumptions of this TCO, not third-party facts.

4. Computed TCO summary (computed — verbatim from model)

5. Year-by-year cash flow (computed — verbatim from model)

Reconciliation: PV of costs R 10,905,905.77 + PV of benefits R 31,704,504.73 ⇒ NPV R 20,798,598.96 (R 20.80 m). Σ discounted generation over 25 yr ≈ 30,500 MWh; LCOE = PV(costs) / Σ discounted kWh = R 0.8129/kWh.

6. Worked reading of the result

The economic case rests on three structural facts visible in the table: (i) tariff escalation at 8%/yr compounds the avoided-cost benefit so that year-25 benefit (R 11.36 m) is more than 5× year-1 benefit (R 2.02 m); (ii) year 12 carries an inverter replacement of ~8 % of capex (R 760k nominal), which is the single largest non-capex outflow and the reason discounted payback sits at 5.90 years rather than ~4.5; (iii) module degradation of 0.5 %/yr linear trims generation from 1.65 GWh in year 1 to ~1.46 GWh in year 25, a manageable 11 % terminal-year loss compared to the avoided-tariff growth over the same period.

7. Verdict by scenario (using the same TCO engine)

Scenario NPVs are produced by the same computed engine that produced the TCO and cash-flow tables; they reuse §2 sources and §3 assumptions with the single shocked input changed. They illustrate elasticity, not alternative base cases.

8. Limitation / model-assumption ledger

• Self-consumption ratio: 100 % avoided-tariff credit applied to all generation. Real resort load shapes capture ~80–100 % of midday PV output; the assumption is conservative if anything.
• Export tariff: R 0/kWh. Any non-zero SSEG credit would raise NPV.
• Tariff escalation 8 %/yr is taken from Nersa MYPD guidance for 2024–2027; forward years beyond the determination horizon are extrapolated at the same rate (model assumption).
• Module degradation 0.5 %/yr linear; actual long-term mono-PERC degradation is non-linear (LONGi warranty tiers). A non-linear curve typically lifts generation slightly, raising NPV — the linear assumption is conservative.
• Inverter replacement (8 % of capex at year 12) models a Huawei SUN2000-330KTL swap-in; inverter capex in ZAR is confirmed at RFQ against the buyer's BoS quote.
• O&M escalation 5 %/yr is a model assumption (no CSIR/GreenCape publication gives an explicit SA O&M escalator).

9. Imports & HS customs duty — PENDING SARS lookup

The TCO import-duty block is PENDING until the buyer-facing RFQ returns a BoS quote, after which exact ZAR duty and VAT payable is confirmed via the SARS customs portal.

For non-SA destinations, the corresponding lookup tool is the European Commission's TARIC consultation (https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/taric_consultation.jsp?Lang=en), the USITC HTS search (https://hts.usitc.gov/), the UK Global Tariff (https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/), Japan Customs (https://www.customs.go.jp/english/), the Australian Border Force (https://www.abf.gov.au/), the Ghana Revenue Authority (https://gra.gov.gh/) and the Uganda Revenue Authority (https://www.ura.go.ug/).

10. TradVolt analysis note (not a third-party certification)

11. Request a Quote

Send your resort load profile (monthly kWh and demand profile), site coordinates, current tariff structure and target commercial-operation date. We return a calibrated quote referencing this R9 case and the named hardware family (LONGi Hi-MO 5 LR5-72HBD on Huawei SUN2000-330KTL on K2 Systems N-Rack).

Request Quote — Resort 1 MWp SA