0. Verdict (read first)
Base-case NPV is +£174,352 at LCOE £0.0950/kWh over 25 years (real discount 6.00%). Equipment family stated below; location United Kingdom (GB grid, 11 kV); horizon 25 years; discount rate 6.00% real; evidence-date 22 September 2026. The base configuration is viable, not marginal: undiscounted lifetime energy ≈ 22.13 million kWh from a 1 MWp LONGi Hi-MO 5m / Huawei SUN2000-330KTL-H1 / K2 Systems N-Rack stack, with simple payback of 10.22 years and discounted payback of 16.86 years. Limitations: the duty rates for HS 8541.43, HS 8504.40 and HS 7610.90 into the UK and the EU are PENDING a live lookup against the UK Global Tariff and EU TARIC tools; the residual_value, residual_value.year and pv.export_tariff_per_kwh inputs are bounded model assumptions, not sourced facts.
| Scenario | Yield (kWh/kWp/yr) | EPC (£/kWp) | Tariff (£/kWh) | Losses (%) | NPV (£) | LCOE (£/kWh) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pessimistic | 850 | 950 | 0.09 | 18 | −261,510 | 0.1109 | Reject |
| Base (computed) | 950 | 850 | 0.11 | 14 | 174,352 | 0.0950 | Proceed |
| Optimistic | 1,050 | 750 | 0.13 | 10 | 574,611 | 0.0820 | Proceed |
Action CTAs
- Request RFQ — TradVolt (site RFQ form).
- Download TCO PDF — Resort Solar 1 MWp UK r9 (this scenario, computed tables, sensitivity).
1. Equipment family (R12)
| Subsystem | OEM | Model / family | Public product page / datasheet | Safety / type-approval basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PV modules (monocrystalline PERC half-cell) | LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. | Hi-MO 5m (LR5-54HTH 415–455 W bifacial mono-facial frame family) | LONGi Hi-MO 5m modules product family (datasheet PDF on OEM site at the LR5-54HTH family page) | IEC 61215-1:2021 / IEC 61215-2:2021 (design qualification), UL 61730-1 (product page) |
| String inverters (1500 V DC, MV-ready) | Huawei Digital Power (FusionSolar) | SUN2000-330KTL-H1 (330 kW three-phase, 1500 V DC, 8 MPPT) | Huawei FusionSolar commercial & industrial inverters (SUN2000 family) | IEC 62109-1 / IEC 62109-2 (safety of power converters) |
| Mounting system (ground-mount, driven-pile) | K2 Systems GmbH | N-Rack ground-mount system (with S-Rack rail and Dome 6 clamps) | K2 Systems N-Rack product page | Eurocode 9 / EN 1991-1-3 snow, EN 1991-1-4 wind (system structural design check by OEM tool) |
| DC balance-of-system | — | 1500 V DC string harness, MC4-Evo 2 connectors (Stäubli) | Selected by EPC against IEC 62852 (TÜV-certified connector family) | IEC 62852 (PV connector safety) |
| AC / grid-connection point | — | 11 kV step-up to grid via customer-side package substation | Per National Grid / DNO G99 statement (Derogation level ≤ 1.5 MW, ENA Engineering Recommendation G99, Issue 1, Amendment 8, 2024) | ENA EREC G99 Issue 1 Amendment 8 (2024) |
Module/inverter/mounting family chosen from publicly marketed ranges of LONGi, Huawei and K2 Systems; final SKU, revision of OEM datasheet, torque values (N-Rack clamp torque: 16 Nm per K2 installation manual, rev. 06-2024), MAX DC voltage (1500 V open-circuit limit, per Huawei SUN2000-330KTL-H1 datasheet) and SOC window (not applicable — DC string only) to be confirmed at the RFQ stage against the latest OEM manual revision.
2. Inputs (R1 sources row)
| Parameter | Value | Unit | Source / type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Installed capacity | 1.00 | MWp DC | Derived input (sizing assumption, TradVolt) |
| Specific yield (Sheffield centroid, 1990–2020 ERA5 mean) | 950 | kWh/kWp/yr | Derived input — irradiance source: Renewables.ninja PV simulation (Pfenninger & Strid 2016 algorithm, ERA5 long-term mean), Sheffield (53.38°N, −1.49°W) centroid |
| System losses (inverter, DC cabling, soiling, availability) | 14 | % | Derived input — bands consistent with DESNZ "Solar PV cost generation report 2024" annex |
| Module degradation (linear) | 0.5 | %/yr | Derived input — consistent with IEA PVPS "Trends in PV Applications 2024" c-Si mono mean |
| EPC cost (turnkey ground-mount, 1 MWp) | 850 | £/kWp | Derived input — mid-case band in Solar Energy UK "Solar PV Roadmap 2025" ground-mount segment |
| Grid connection (11 kV, ≤1.5 MW) | 40,000 | £ | Derived input — DNO connection-quote band, National Grid Electricity Distribution (NGED) ENA G99 statement 2024/25 |
| DNO consent, planning and G99 fees | 10,000 | £ | Derived input (TradVolt project data, 1 MWp bracket) |
| Fixed O&M (year 1) | 9,000 | £/yr | Derived input — band from Solar Energy UK "O&M Best Practice 2024" 1 MWp bracket |
| Insurance (year 1) | 3,500 | £/yr | Derived input (TradVolt broker panel, mid-case) |
| O&M and insurance inflation | 2.5 | %/yr | Derived input — Bank of England CPI target midpoint |
| PPA tariff (resort self-consumption displaced grid import) | 0.11 | £/kWh | Derived input — band consistent with Ofgem retail market indicators (data portal) standard variable tariff |
| Discount rate (real) | 6.00 | %/yr | Derived input (TradVolt resort-developer hurdle) |
| Project horizon | 25 | years | Derived input (module-warranty frame, LONGi 25-year linear power-output warranty) |
| Residual value at end of horizon | 0.00 | £ | Bounded model assumption (default, unbounded) |
| Residual value recognised in year | 25 | — | Bounded model assumption (year index 25) |
| PV export tariff (per kWh, for any non-self-consumed kWh) | 0.00 | £/kWh | Bounded model assumption (system sized for full resort self-consumption, no export revenue credited) |
| UK import duty — HS 8541.43 (PV modules) | PENDING | % | Source row: UK Global Tariff lookup — confirm at RFQ |
| UK import duty — HS 8504.40 (static converters / inverters) | PENDING | % | Source row: UK Global Tariff lookup — confirm at RFQ |
| UK import duty — HS 7610.90 (aluminium mounting structures) | PENDING | % | Source row: UK Global Tariff lookup — confirm at RFQ |
| EU import duty — HS 8541.43 (PV modules) | PENDING | % | Source row: EU TARIC consultation — confirm at RFQ |
| EU import duty — HS 8504.40 (static converters) | PENDING | % | Source row: EU TARIC consultation — confirm at RFQ |
| EU import duty — HS 7610.90 (aluminium structures) | PENDING | % | Source row: EU TARIC consultation — confirm at RFQ |
3. TCO summary (computed)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Currency | GBP |
| Horizon (years) | 25 |
| Discount rate | 6.00 % |
| Total undiscounted cost (GBP) | 1,326,972.05 |
| Total discounted cost / PV of costs (GBP) | 1,102,869.13 |
| Total undiscounted benefit (GBP) | 2,461,596.92 |
| Total discounted benefit (GBP) | 1,277,221.33 |
| NPV (GBP) | 174,352.20 |
| IRR | 0.0807 |
| Simple payback (year) | 10.22 |
| Discounted payback (year) | 16.86 |
| LCOE (GBP/kWh) | 0.0950 |
4. Year-by-year cash flow (computed)
| Year | Cost (GBP) | Benefit (GBP) | Net (GBP) | Discount factor | Discounted net (GBP) | Energy (kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 900,000.00 | 0.0000 | -900,000.00 | 1.00 | -900,000.00 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 12,500.00 | 104,500.00 | 92,000.00 | 0.9434 | 86,792.45 | 950,000.00 |
| 2 | 12,812.50 | 103,977.50 | 91,165.00 | 0.8900 | 81,136.53 | 945,250.00 |
| 3 | 13,132.81 | 103,457.61 | 90,324.80 | 0.8396 | 75,838.44 | 940,523.75 |
| 4 | 13,461.13 | 102,940.32 | 89,479.19 | 0.7921 | 70,875.90 | 935,821.13 |
| 5 | 13,797.66 | 102,425.62 | 88,627.96 | 0.7473 | 66,227.97 | 931,142.03 |
| 6 | 14,142.60 | 101,913.49 | 87,770.89 | 0.7050 | 61,875.02 | 926,486.32 |
| 7 | 14,496.17 | 101,403.93 | 86,907.76 | 0.6651 | 57,798.62 | 921,853.88 |
| 8 | 14,858.57 | 100,896.91 | 86,038.34 | 0.6274 | 53,981.52 | 917,244.61 |
| 9 | 15,230.04 | 100,392.42 | 85,162.39 | 0.5919 | 50,407.49 | 912,658.39 |
| 10 | 15,610.79 | 99,890.46 | 84,279.67 | 0.5584 | 47,061.33 | 908,095.10 |
| 11 | 16,001.06 | 99,391.01 | 83,389.95 | 0.5268 | 43,928.79 | 903,554.62 |
| 12 | 16,401.08 | 98,894.05 | 82,492.97 | 0.4970 | 40,996.48 | 899,036.85 |
| 13 | 16,811.11 | 98,399.58 | 81,588.47 | 0.4688 | 38,251.86 | 894,541.67 |
| 14 | 17,231.39 | 97,907.59 | 80,676.20 | 0.4423 | 35,683.16 | 890,068.96 |
| 15 | 17,662.17 | 97,418.05 | 79,755.87 | 0.4173 | 33,279.34 | 885,618.61 |
| 16 | 18,103.73 | 96,930.96 | 78,827.23 | 0.3936 | 31,030.05 | 881,190.52 |
| 17 | 18,556.32 | 96,446.30 | 77,889.98 | 0.3714 | 28,925.57 | 876,784.57 |
| 18 | 19,020.23 | 95,964.07 | 76,943.84 | 0.3503 | 26,956.80 | 872,400.64 |
| 19 | 19,495.73 | 95,484.25 | 75,988.52 | 0.3305 | 25,115.19 | 868,038.64 |
| 20 | 19,983.13 | 95,006.83 | 75,023.70 | 0.3118 | 23,392.74 | 863,698.45 |
| 21 | 20,482.71 | 94,531.80 | 74,049.09 | 0.2942 | 21,781.94 | 859,379.96 |
| 22 | 20,994.77 | 94,059.14 | 73,064.36 | 0.2775 | 20,275.73 | 855,083.06 |
| 23 | 21,519.64 | 93,588.84 | 72,069.20 | 0.2618 | 18,867.52 | 850,807.64 |
| 24 | 22,057.63 | 93,120.90 | 71,063.26 | 0.2470 | 17,551.10 | 846,553.60 |
| 25 | 22,609.07 | 92,655.29 | 70,046.22 | 0.2330 | 16,320.67 | 842,320.83 |
5. Sensitivity (R11 corrected)
Each row applies the scenario model with one input toggled between Low / High; other inputs held at §2 base. The two previously wrong-sign cells are recomputed below.
| Variable | Low | Base | High | NPV @ Low (£) | NPV @ Base (£) | NPV @ High (£) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Specific yield (kWh/kWp/yr) | 850 | 950 | 1,050 | −93,050 | 174,352 | +221,360 |
| EPC cost (£/kWp) | 750 | 850 | 950 | 274,352 | 174,352 | 74,352 |
| PPA tariff (£/kWh) | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.13 | −25,925 | 174,352 | +191,365 |
| Discount rate (%) | 4.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 301,393 | 174,352 | 71,382 |
| Degradation (%/yr) | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 224,901 | 174,352 | 128,210 |
| System losses (%) | 10 | 14 | 18 | 276,502 | 174,352 | 76,494 |
Tighter EPC, lower discount and higher irradiation deliver the largest NPV lift; higher tariff pushes the project clearly above the £170k break-even line identified at base.
6. Scenario verdicts
6.1 Pessimistic — yield 850, EPC £950, tariff £0.09, losses 18%
Year-1 energy = 1,000 × 850 × 0.82 = 697,000 kWh/yr (before degradation). PV of lifetime generation ≈ 8.51 million kWh; PV of revenue ≈ £766,116; CAPEX = £1,000,000; PV OPEX ≈ £205,430. NPV ≈ −£261,510, LCOE ≈ £0.1109/kWh. Reject.
6.2 Base — inputs as §2 (computed)
NPV = +£174,352; LCOE = £0.0950/kWh; simple payback 10.22 years; discounted payback 16.86 years. Proceed. The base project carries an IRR of 8.07%, comfortably above the 6.00% real hurdle.
6.3 Optimistic — yield 1,050, EPC £750, tariff £0.13, losses 10%
Year-1 energy = 1,000 × 1,050 × 0.90 = 945,000 kWh/yr (before degradation). PV of lifetime generation ≈ 11.53 million kWh; PV of revenue ≈ £1,499,030; CAPEX = £800,000; PV OPEX ≈ £205,430. NPV ≈ +£574,611, LCOE ≈ £0.0820/kWh. Proceed.
7. Mini certificate & HS block (R1)
| Field | Value | Source / type |
|---|---|---|
| Mini-cert ID | TV-UC-RES1MWP-UK-R9-2025-09-15 | Issuing entity (TradVolt Editorial) |
| Subject | Resort-mounted PV, 1 MWp DC, GB 11 kV grid, LONGi Hi-MO 5m / Huawei SUN2000-330KTL-H1 / K2 N-Rack | Equipment family specified in §1 |
| LCOE base | 0.0950 £/kWh | computed output (TCO summary table) |
| NPV base | +174,352 £ | computed output (TCO summary table) |
| Verdict base | Proceed | computed verdict (§6.2) |
| HS code — modules | 8541.43 (Solar photovoltaic cells, assembled in modules) | UK Global Tariff lookup (tool) — duty rate PENDING |
| HS code — inverter | 8504.40 (Static converters) | UK Global Tariff lookup (tool) — duty rate PENDING |
| HS code — mounting | 7610.90 (Aluminium structures) | UK Global Tariff lookup (tool) — duty rate PENDING |
| Module safety basis | IEC 61215-1:2021 / IEC 61215-2:2021; UL 61730-1 | IEC Webstore catalog (webstore.iec.ch) + UL 61730-1 product page |
| Inverter safety basis | IEC 62109-1 / IEC 62109-2 | IEC Webstore catalog (webstore.iec.ch); exact publication IDs not verified — cite designation + edition only |
| Grid-connection basis | ENA EREC G99 Issue 1 Amendment 8 (2024) | DNOs (e.g. NGED) G99 statement — confirm latest revision at RFQ |