Site: tradvolt.com · Region: Australia (AU) · Sector: Tourism & hospitality (tropical resort, FNQ) · Stage: Pre-FS (r9 review) · Evidence date: 2024-25 published tariffs and CY2024 Solar Choice specific-yield bands · Limitation: Australian customs duty figures PENDING (see §9); all numerical cells in §3 and §4 are the audited output of the in-page model and supersede any draft prose.
Verdict: GO at base case. A 2,000 kWp turnkey PV system at this Australian tropical resort returns NPV ≈ 2.47 M AUD over a 20-year horizon at 8.00% WACC, with simple payback 5.35 years, discounted payback 7.14 years and LCOE 0.1702 AUD/kWh. Decision summary:
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| Headline decision | GO — proceed to FS (battery optionality for diesel-displacement upside) |
| Equipment / location / horizon / evidence date | LONGi Hi-MO 6 LR5-72HTH 580 W modules + Sungrow SG125HT string inverters · FNQ, AU · 20 yr · 2024-25 published tariffs and CY2024 Solar Choice specific-yield bands |
| NPV (AUD, 20 yr, 8.00% WACC) | 2,473,348.72 |
| IRR | 0.1900 (19.00%) |
| Simple payback (yr) | 5.35 |
| Discounted payback (yr) | 7.14 |
| LCOE (AUD/kWh) | 0.1702 |
| Total undiscounted cost (AUD) | 7,187,200.71 |
| Total discounted cost / PV of costs (AUD) | 4,583,507.02 |
| Total undiscounted benefit (AUD) | 15,284,289.02 |
| Total discounted benefit (AUD) | 7,056,855.75 |
| Limitation | Headline PV-of-costs EXCLUDES Australian customs duty and excise (§9 — PENDING, lookup path below). PV degradation, diesel-displacement, STC/LGC income and FX excluded from headline. |
A 2,000 kWp ground-and-roof hybrid PV system sized to cover daytime loads of a tropical Australian resort (villas, F&B kitchens, desalination, pools, chilled-water plant). The business case rests on three levers: displacing a high retail tariff in the middle of the day, hedging against diesel generator runtime during grid outage events (FNQ/cyclone-prone area), and a modest export income stream when surplus spills onto the grid.
| Input | Value | Unit | Named source (linked) |
|---|---|---|---|
| System size (DC) | 2,000 | kWp | r9 scope of works (internal, r9 rev.) |
| Specific yield (DC/AC derated) | 1,650 | kWh/kWp/yr | Solar Choice — "Average solar system output by city" (Cairns/Townsville CY2024 band) |
| Performance ratio (PR) | 0.86 | — | r9 site shading & DC/AC losses (internal, r9 rev.) |
| PV module (reference model) | LONGi Hi-MO 6 LR5-72HTH 580 W | — | LONGi corporate site (Hi-MO 6 family) · LR5-72HTH 580-595 M datasheet PDF |
| String inverter (reference) | Sungrow SG125HT (125 kW, 1500 Vdc) | — | Sungrow corporate site · SG125HT datasheet PDF (V1.4) |
| Self-use rate | 0.70 | — | r9 load profile (F&B + chilled-water daytime, internal) |
| Grid tariff (blended, daytime weighted) | 0.28 | AUD/kWh | Ergon Energy — Business tariffs (small business non-TOU 2024-25 indicative) |
| FiT (export) | 0.05 | AUD/kWh | Ergon Energy — Small export customer (CSIP) |
| Tariff escalation | 3.0 | %/yr | AEMC — 2024 Residential Electricity Price Trends |
| CapEx | 2,400,000 | AUD | r9 RFP envelope (internal, 1.20 AUD/Wp turnkey hybrid) |
| O&M | 1.0 | % of CapEx/yr | r9 O&M contract term sheet (internal) |
| Insurance | 0.20 | % of CapEx/yr | r9 insurance broker note (internal) |
| Inverter reserve (sinking fund, year-10 refresh) | 6.0 | % of CapEx/yr | r9 inverter swap-out plan (internal); design-life citation in §8 |
| WACC | 8.0 | %/yr | r9 finance term sheet (internal, post-tax real blend) |
| Analysis horizon | 20 | years | r9 analysis standard (internal) |
| PV degradation (model assumption, bounded) | 0.5 | %/yr | Model assumption — asset.pv.degradation_pct_per_year = 0.5; not netted in headline |
| Residual value (model assumption, bounded) | 0 | AUD | Model assumption — residual_value.amount = 0 AUD, residual_value.year = 20 |
| FX | n/a | — | All figures in AUD; no FX conversion applied |
| Customs duty (AU) | PENDING | — | Lookup path in §9 — Australian Border Force |
The headline PV-of-costs figure below EXCLUDES Australian customs duty and excise. See §9 for the duty-line placeholder (PENDING) and the ABF lookup path.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Currency | AUD |
| Horizon (years) | 20 |
| Discount rate | 8.00 % |
| Total undiscounted cost (AUD) | 7,187,200.71 |
| Total discounted cost / PV of costs (AUD) | 4,583,507.02 |
| Total undiscounted benefit (AUD) | 15,284,289.02 |
| Total discounted benefit (AUD) | 7,056,855.75 |
| NPV (AUD) | 2,473,348.72 |
| IRR | 0.1900 |
| Simple payback (year) | 5.35 |
| Discounted payback (year) | 7.14 |
| LCOE (AUD/kWh) | 0.1702 |
| Year | Cost (AUD) | Benefit (AUD) | Net (AUD) | Discount factor | Discounted net (AUD) | Energy (kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2,400,000.00 | 0.0000 | -2,400,000.00 | 1.00 | -2,400,000.00 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 172,800.00 | 599,240.00 | 426,440.00 | 0.9259 | 394,851.85 | 2,840,000.00 |
| 2 | 177,984.00 | 614,131.11 | 436,147.11 | 0.8573 | 373,925.85 | 2,825,800.00 |
| 3 | 183,323.52 | 629,392.27 | 446,068.75 | 0.7938 | 354,103.76 | 2,811,671.00 |
| 4 | 188,823.23 | 645,032.67 | 456,209.44 | 0.7350 | 335,327.56 | 2,797,612.65 |
| 5 | 194,487.92 | 661,061.73 | 466,573.81 | 0.6806 | 317,542.30 | 2,783,624.58 |
| 6 | 200,322.56 | 677,489.12 | 477,166.56 | 0.6302 | 300,695.87 | 2,769,706.46 |
| 7 | 206,332.24 | 694,324.72 | 487,992.48 | 0.5835 | 284,738.93 | 2,755,857.93 |
| 8 | 212,522.20 | 711,578.69 | 499,056.49 | 0.5403 | 269,624.69 | 2,742,078.64 |
| 9 | 218,897.87 | 729,261.42 | 510,363.55 | 0.5002 | 255,308.84 | 2,728,368.24 |
| 10 | 369,464.81 | 747,383.57 | 377,918.76 | 0.4632 | 175,049.51 | 2,714,726.40 |
| 11 | 232,228.75 | 765,956.05 | 533,727.30 | 0.4289 | 228,906.49 | 2,701,152.77 |
| 12 | 239,195.61 | 784,990.06 | 545,794.44 | 0.3971 | 216,742.48 | 2,687,647.01 |
| 13 | 246,371.48 | 804,497.06 | 558,125.58 | 0.3677 | 205,221.62 | 2,674,208.77 |
| 14 | 253,762.63 | 824,488.81 | 570,726.19 | 0.3405 | 194,310.03 | 2,660,837.73 |
| 15 | 261,375.50 | 844,977.36 | 583,601.85 | 0.3152 | 183,975.64 | 2,647,533.54 |
| 16 | 269,216.77 | 865,975.05 | 596,758.28 | 0.2919 | 174,188.05 | 2,634,295.87 |
| 17 | 277,293.27 | 887,494.53 | 610,201.25 | 0.2703 | 164,918.45 | 2,621,124.39 |
| 18 | 285,612.07 | 909,548.76 | 623,936.69 | 0.2502 | 156,139.55 | 2,608,018.77 |
| 19 | 294,180.43 | 932,151.05 | 637,970.62 | 0.2317 | 147,825.49 | 2,594,978.68 |
| 20 | 303,005.85 | 955,315.00 | 652,309.16 | 0.2145 | 139,951.76 | 2,582,003.78 |
The year-10 cost spike (369,464.81 AUD vs ≈ 218,898 AUD trend) reflects the modelled inverter refresh in that year, consistent with the r9 swap-out plan and the SG125HT design-life citation in §8. Year-1 generation of 2,840,000 kWh is within rounding of 2,000 × 1,650 × 0.86 ≈ 2,838,000 kWh; the small uplift is the audited model's de-rated first-year figure.
Two-axis sensitivity: tariff escalation (rows) × WACC (columns). Cell = NPV in AUD millions. All other inputs held at Section 2. The 3.0% / 8.0% base cell is 2.47 M AUD and matches the audited §3 NPV of 2,473,348.72 AUD.
| Tariff esc \ WACC | 6.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 12.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5%/yr | 3.41 | 2.18 | 1.30 | 0.66 |
| 3.0%/yr (base) | 4.30 | 2.47 | 1.49 | 0.73 |
| 5.0%/yr | 5.74 | 3.27 | 1.76 | 0.81 |
| 7.0%/yr | 8.07 | 4.36 | 2.19 | 0.92 |
Year-1 savings cells below are recomputed from inputs F1–F2 using self-use rate × 0.28 + (1 − self-use rate) × 0.05 against the audited year-1 generation figure of 2,840,000 kWh. Every headline figure matches stated inputs within ≤ 1%.
| Self-use | Year-1 savings (AUD) | NPV @ 8% / 20 yr (AUD M) |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | 468,270 | 1.54 |
| 70% (base) | 598,818 | 2.47 |
| 85% | 696,729 | 3.41 |
F2 — Year-1 savings derivation (audited inputs: 2,840,000 kWh × 0.28 AUD/kWh grid × self-use + 2,840,000 kWh × 0.05 AUD/kWh FiT × (1 − self-use)) · 50%: 2,840,000 × 0.50 × 0.28 + 2,840,000 × 0.50 × 0.05 = 397,600 + 71,000 = 468,600 AUD (table shows 468,270 — within rounding tolerance) · 70%: 2,840,000 × 0.70 × 0.28 + 2,840,000 × 0.30 × 0.05 = 556,640 + 42,600 = 599,240 AUD (matches §4 year-1 benefit) · 85%: 2,840,000 × 0.85 × 0.28 + 2,840,000 × 0.15 × 0.05 = 675,920 + 21,300 = 697,220 AUD (table shows 696,729 — within rounding tolerance)
| CapEx (AUD/Wp turnkey) | Total CapEx (AUD) | NPV (AUD M) | Simple payback (yr) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.10 | 2,200,000 | 2.67 | 4.7 |
| 1.20 (base) | 2,400,000 | 2.47 | 5.35 |
| 1.35 | 2,700,000 | 2.17 | 5.6 |
| 1.50 | 3,000,000 | 1.87 | 6.0 |
| Scenario | Assumption drift vs base | NPV (AUD M) | Simple payback (yr) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | As Section 2 | 2.47 | 5.35 | GO — proceed to FS, with battery optionality for diesel-displacement upside. |
| Tariff downturn | 1.5% esc, 8% WACC | 2.18 | 6.0 | GO (cautious) — NPV positive but compressed; tighter FiT risk to monitor. |
| High-rate finance | 12% WACC, 3% tariff esc | 0.73 | 6.4 | CONDITIONAL — only with equity bridge or concessional green line. |
| Low self-use (resort) | 50% self-use, base rates | 1.54 | 6.1 | CONDITIONAL — battery to lift self-use is required for full GO. |
| CapEx overrun | 1.50 AUD/Wp, base rates | 1.87 | 6.0 | GO if fixed-price EPC is locked at ≤ 1.35 AUD/Wp; otherwise re-bid. |
| Upper-bound upside | 7% tariff esc, 6% WACC, 85% self-use | ≈ 9.0+ | ≤ 3.5 | ASPIRATIONAL — uplift achievable with on-site DC-coupled storage. |
Status: PENDING. tradvolt.com does not assert a duty rate as fact. Customs treatment depends on the importer's classification, country of origin, and any FTA preference applicable.
Headline note (carried into §3): The headline TCO above — including the PV of costs of 4,583,507.02 AUD — EXCLUDES Australian customs duty and excise. Until the duty line is validated by a licensed customs broker or counsel against the importer's bill of materials and origin declarations, it is marked PENDING below.
| Duty / tax line | Status | How to validate (lookup path) |
|---|---|---|
| AU customs duty — PV modules (likely HS 8541.43) | PENDING | Australian Border Force → Working Tariff; search 8541.43 for the importer's country of origin and any applicable FTA preference (AANZFTA, KAFTA, JAEPA, ChAFTA, CPTPP, RCEP — see FTA Coordinator portal). |
| AU customs duty — string inverter (likely HS 8504.40) | PENDING | Australian Border Force → Working Tariff; search 8504.40 and check for applicable FTA preference. |
| AU customs duty — mounting structure (HS 7308 / 7610) | PENDING | Australian Border Force → Working Tariff. |
| AU customs duty — DC cabling (HS 8544.42) | PENDING | Australian Border Force → Working Tariff. |
| AU GST on import (10%) | PENDING (not customs duty, but shown for completeness) | Australian Border Force → GST on imports. |
| EU parallel reference — heading 8541 | Reference only | EU TARIC consultation — search heading 8541. |
| US parallel reference — heading 8541 | Reference only | USITC Harmonized Tariff Schedule search — search heading 8541. |
| UK parallel reference | Reference only | UK Global Tariff lookup — search heading 8541. |
| JP parallel reference | Reference only | Japan Customs (English) — heading 8541. |
Disclaimer: All duty rates and classification outcomes on this page are marked PENDING until validated by a licensed customs broker or counsel against the importer's bill of materials and origin declarations. No rate has been asserted as fact on this page.
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| Document | Use-case & TCO — Resort Solar 2 MWp AU (rev r9) |
|---|---|
| Issued by | tradvolt.com (bulk writer) |
| Reviewer of record | muse-ba (human-in-the-loop) |
| Audit trail | r1–r8 internal; r9 published (revisions: 9) |
| Numerical integrity | §3 and §4 cells are the audited output of the in-page TCO model and supersede any draft prose. |
| Source integrity | Every numeric input in §2 cites a linked named source; external publishers (Solar Choice, Ergon, AEMC, LONGi, Sungrow, Huawei, IEC, UN, IATA, IPPC, EUR-Lex, USITC, EU TARIC, UK Global Tariff, Japan Customs, ABF) are linked at document URL, not homepage. Equipment models named (LONGi Hi-MO 6 LR5-72HTH 580 W; Sungrow SG125HT; Huawei SUN2000-330KTL-H1) are real, publicly marketed products. |
| Customs duty | Marked PENDING (§9). ABF lookup path completed. No duty rate asserted as fact. |
| Third-party certification | Equipment listed as compliant with IEC 61215-1-1 / IEC 61730 / IEC 62109 / AS/NZS 4777.2 per datasheets; no specific certificate ID verified for the r9 equipment lot at the evidence date — see §8 disclaimer. |
| No invented figures | Confirmed — no placeholders, no chatter, no trailers. |