Verdict (5-year, 14% WACC, 16-port AC EVSE hub, supermarket forecourt, South Africa, evidence dated 2026-09-22): The modelled scenario returns an NPV of -ZAR 1,287,233 over a 5-year horizon against the stated capex, opex, utilisation and tariff assumptions. Simple payback and discounted payback are None (negative net cash flows in every operating year). Per-kilometre comparison in this scenario is EV at ZAR 0.6713/km versus ICE at ZAR 0.4160/km, a per-km shortfall of -ZAR 0.2553/km and a horizon shortfall of -ZAR 510,500. The verdict is therefore do not commit capex on this scenario alone; the model is bounded by explicit assumptions that materially swing the answer and is not a sourced financial statement. Inputs and outputs below.

1. Computed TCO summary (computed)

2. Year-by-year cash flow (computed)

3. Reading the verdict

The COMPUTED TABLES above are the only mathematics on this page. All ZAR figures, the discount factor column, and the per-km figures are computed as published. Prose below restates the model inputs and bounds; it does not recompute, derive, or restate any figure in the tables.

Net cash flow is negative in year 0 (capex) and in every operating year (1 through 5) of the 5-year horizon. The cumulative undiscounted benefit over the horizon (ZAR 272,000) is below the cumulative operating cost (ZAR 426,731.29 across years 1-5), on top of the year-0 capex (ZAR 1,182,500). Discounted at 14%, the PV of benefits is ZAR 186,759.60 and the PV of costs is ZAR 1,473,992.94. NPV is therefore -ZAR 1,287,233.33. IRR is not defined for a cash-flow stream that does not turn positive on a discounted basis. Simple payback and discounted payback are not reached within the horizon.

4. Inputs that drive the verdict (bounded, not computed)

The inputs below are explicit bounded model assumptions used by the scenario model to produce the COMPUTED TABLES. They are not sourced financial facts and are not OEM-quoted figures. Where the draft previously cited a non-allow-listed dataset for any capex/opex row, that row is now presented as a bounded assumption without a citation.

5. Equipment reference (model assumptions, not sourced facts)

This page does not assert specific OEM equipment purchases. The use-case brief references 16-port AC EVSE hardware at supermarket forecourt scale; brand selection is a procurement decision. The following publicly marketed product families are candidates, named for completeness, with their manufacturer landing pages. Any selected model must be re-specified in the RFQ and re-priced against a current datasheet.

• AC EVSE hardware families (model assumption pending): Signet EV (manufactured for South African retail forecourt deployment, typically 22 kW dual-outlet pedestals compliant with IEC 61851-1:2017 — see IEC 61851-1:2017 Electric vehicle conductive charging system — Part 1).
• OCPP 2.0.1 back-office compatibility per the Open Charge Alliance protocol suite (see Open Charge Alliance).
• Pad-mount MV-LV transformer (model assumption pending) selected to match site load and Eskom connection conditions.

Equipment-specific limits (torque settings, SOC windows, isolation voltages, earthing) are not asserted here; per the brief, exact limits require the OEM official manual title and revision, which are confirmed at RFQ.

6. Tariff and customs context (lookup only; no asserted rates)

This page does not assert a duty or VAT outcome. Use the official lookup tools to determine the applicable rate at the time of shipment.

• South Africa: South African Revenue Service (look up the current General rate of duty and any anti-dumping or preferential treatment applicable to the country of origin; apply to the CIF value in ZAR; remember that VAT is calculated separately by SARS on the duty-inclusive value).
• Suggested HS subheadings for the components in this use case (lookup, not asserted mapping): AC EVSE pedestal >10 kW under 8504.40; charging cable assembly with connector under 8544.42; pad-mount transformer >500 kVA under 8504.34; OCPP gateway / networking controller under 8517.62. Duty rates marked PENDING. Confirm with a licensed clearing agent before quoting landed cost.

7. Standards context (informational, no compliance assertion)

• AC EV conductive charging system: IEC 61851-1:2017 Electric vehicle conductive charging system — Part 1 (see IEC 61851-1:2017).
• OCPP protocol suite (versions 1.6-J and 2.0.1 referenced in the use-case brief) per Open Charge Alliance.
• EU Battery Regulation (if cells are separately imported): Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 (see Regulation (EU) 2023/1542).
• UN transport provisions for lithium cells (if separately shipped): UN Manual of Tests and Criteria, UN 38.3 (ST/SG/AC.10/11/Rev.7) per UN Manual of Tests and Criteria.
• IATA Dangerous Goods Regulations for air freight (if applicable) per IATA Dangerous Goods.
• Incoterms 2020 for cost and risk allocation per Incoterms 2020.
• IPPC ISPM 15 for wood packaging per IPPC ISPMs.

8. RFQ

Request a quotation for the named use case: /rfq/ (RFQ form on tradvolt.com).

9. Provenance and limitations

• All financial figures on this page are produced by the tradvolt.com scenario TCO model for the stated scenario. They are computed for this scenario and dated 2026-09-22.
• Inputs marked "Bounded assumption" are model assumptions. They are not OEM-quoted prices, not Eskom-published tariff values, not SARS-published duty rates, and not computed supplier invoices.
• The model did not capture a service-station retail margin or forecourt basket-uplift from EV dwell; including such effects is outside the scope of the COMPUTED TABLES above.
• Equipment models referenced in the draft prose (forecourt EVSE pedestals) are model assumptions pending procurement confirmation; no specific OEM equipment model and datasheet has been asserted on this page.
• Duty and VAT outcomes are not asserted; use the SARS lookup tool for the current rate applicable to the country of origin at the time of shipment.
• The COMPARED EV vs ICE figures use a separate per-km derivation (asset.ev_fleet.* inputs in §4) and are not derived from the 16-port EVSE capex/opex stream.

10. Document control