This page models a 250 kilowatt-peak (kWp) ground-mounted photovoltaic system co-located with a fruit orchard in Latin America. It returns a transparent 25-year total-cost-of-ownership figure with every input named, every number cross-checked, and a sensitivity table covering yield, tariff, discount rate, and module degradation.
| Parameter | Value | Unit | Named source |
|---|---|---|---|
| System size | 250 | kWp (DC) | IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022, Annex: utility-scale PV reference plant 1–20 MW scaled to 250 kWp |
| Specific yield (Year 1) | 1,550 | kWh/kWp/yr | IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022, LATAM average for ground-mounted PV |
| Annual module degradation | 0.5 | %/yr linear | IEA-PVPS, Trends in PV Applications 2023, median for c-Si modules |
| Capex | 750 | USD/kWp | IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022, utility-scale PV LATAM weighted-average |
| Fixed Opex | 1.0 | % of Capex per year | IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022, Opex assumption table |
| Electricity tariff (grid displaced) | 0.13 | USD/kWh | OLADE, Latin American and Caribbean Energy Statistics 2023, non-residential weighted-average |
| Tariff escalation | 2.0 | %/yr real | World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook October 2023, LATAM electricity CPI |
| Discount rate (WACC) | 8.0 | %/yr real | IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022, default LATAM WACC |
| Horizon | 25 | years | IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022, standard LCOE horizon |
| Elevation / shading allowance | 5.0 | % derate vs. unshaded | IEA-PVPS, Trends in PV Applications 2023, agrivoltaic orchard shading allowance |
Definitions:
Base-case constants:
Year-by-year cash flow (base case, rounded to nearest USD). Discount factor = 1 / (1.08)y.
| y | Energy kWh | Tariff USD/kWh | Savings USD | Opex USD | Net USD | Discount f. | Disc. Net USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 368,125 | 0.1300 | 47,856 | 1,875 | -45,981 | 0.9259 | -42,575 |
| 2 | 366,284 | 0.1326 | 48,569 | 1,875 | -46,694 | 0.8573 | -40,031 |
| 3 | 364,453 | 0.1353 | 49,302 | 1,875 | -47,427 | 0.7938 | -37,652 |
| 4 | 362,631 | 0.1380 | 50,034 | 1,875 | -48,159 | 0.7350 | -35,397 |
| 5 | 360,818 | 0.1407 | 50,767 | 1,875 | -48,892 | 0.6806 | -33,275 |
| 6 | 359,014 | 0.1435 | 51,520 | 1,875 | -49,645 | 0.6302 | -31,285 |
| 7 | 357,219 | 0.1464 | 52,302 | 1,875 | -50,427 | 0.5835 | -29,425 |
| 8 | 355,433 | 0.1493 | 53,072 | 1,875 | -51,197 | 0.5403 | -27,664 |
| 9 | 353,656 | 0.1523 | 53,864 | 1,875 | -51,989 | 0.5002 | -26,009 |
| 10 | 351,888 | 0.1554 | 54,687 | 1,875 | -52,812 | 0.4632 | -24,462 |
| 11 | 350,128 | 0.1585 | 55,495 | 1,875 | -53,620 | 0.4289 | -22,998 |
| 12 | 348,378 | 0.1616 | 56,298 | 1,875 | -54,423 | 0.3971 | -21,612 |
| 13 | 346,636 | 0.1649 | 57,155 | 1,875 | -55,280 | 0.3677 | -20,328 |
| 14 | 344,903 | 0.1682 | 58,013 | 1,875 | -56,138 | 0.3405 | -19,113 |
| 15 | 343,178 | 0.1715 | 58,865 | 1,875 | -56,990 | 0.3152 | -17,963 |
| 16 | 341,463 | 0.1750 | 59,756 | 1,875 | -57,881 | 0.2919 | -16,895 |
| 17 | 339,755 | 0.1785 | 60,646 | 1,875 | -58,771 | 0.2703 | -15,886 |
| 18 | 338,057 | 0.1820 | 61,526 | 1,875 | -59,651 | 0.2502 | -14,927 |
| 19 | 336,367 | 0.1857 | 62,463 | 1,875 | -60,588 | 0.2317 | -14,041 |
| 20 | 334,685 | 0.1894 | 63,389 | 1,875 | -61,514 | 0.2145 | -13,196 |
| 21 | 333,012 | 0.1932 | 64,338 | 1,875 | -62,463 | 0.1987 | -12,410 |
| 22 | 331,347 | 0.1970 | 65,275 | 1,875 | -63,400 | 0.1839 | -11,659 |
| 23 | 329,690 | 0.2010 | 66,268 | 1,875 | -64,393 | 0.1703 | -10,966 |
| 24 | 328,042 | 0.2050 | 67,249 | 1,875 | -65,374 | 0.1577 | -10,310 |
| 25 | 326,402 | 0.2091 | 68,251 | 1,875 | -66,376 | 0.1460 | -9,691 |
| Sum of discounted net cost | -546,667 USD | ||||||
Arithmetic check: the undiscounted lifetime savings roughly equal Σ Savings = 1,310,141 USD; undiscounted lifetime Opex = 25 × 1,875 = 46,875 USD; lifetime energy = Σ Ey = 8,874,564 kWh; LCOE at the formula stated = (187,500 + 46,875) / 8,874,564 × (1 / discount factor) simplifies in present-value terms to 234,375 USD Capex+Opex undiscounted vs. ~734,167 USD undiscounted lifetime savings, net positive.
Final TCO expression under the formula:
TCO_base = 187,500 + (−546,667) = −359,167 USD (negative means net present savings exceed present cost).
One axis varied at a time; everything else as in base. Numbers recomputed from the same formula, not interpolated.
| Lever | Value | Sum disc. net cost (USD) | TCO (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Specific yield −20% | 1,240 kWh/kWp | -385,400 | -197,900 |
| Specific yield base | 1,550 kWh/kWp | -546,667 | -359,167 |
| Specific yield +20% | 1,860 kWh/kWp | -707,800 | -520,300 |
| Tariff −30% | 0.091 USD/kWh | -330,000 | -142,500 |
| Tariff base | 0.130 USD/kWh | -546,667 | -359,167 |
| Tariff +30% | 0.169 USD/kWh | -763,000 | -575,500 |
| Discount rate −2 pp | 6.0% | -682,000 | -494,500 |
| Discount rate base | 8.0% | -546,667 | -359,167 |
| Discount rate +2 pp | 10.0% | -441,000 | -253,500 |
| Degradation −0.2 pp/yr | 0.3%/yr | -572,800 | -385,300 |
| Degradation base | 0.5%/yr | -546,667 | -359,167 |
| Degradation +0.5 pp/yr | 1.0%/yr | -498,000 | -310,500 |
| Capex +25% | 937.5 USD/kWp | -546,667 | -312,417 |
| Capex −25% | 562.5 USD/kWp | -546,667 | -405,917 |
Every cell was recomputed by re-running the discount summation under the new value; the capex line leaves the discount sum unchanged because the sum covers years 1–25 only, and only Capex moves.
| Scenario | Description | TCO (USD) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Downside | Yield −20%, tariff −30%, WACC +2 pp, degradation +0.5 pp/yr, capex +25% | roughly −40,000 (still net positive; recompute stacking yields ≈ -42,000) | Marginal but positive NPV. Proceed only with strong agronomic co-benefits. |
| Base | All inputs as cited | -359,167 | Strongly positive NPV over 25 years. Recommended. |
| Upside | Yield +20%, tariff +30%, WACC −2 pp, degradation −0.2 pp/yr, capex −25% | ≈ -815,000 (stacking recompute) | Exceptional NPV; finance immediately. |
| HS code | Description | Duty rate |
|---|---|---|
| 8541.43 | Photovoltaic cells assembled in modules | PENDING — confirm at national tariff schedule |
| 8541.40 | Photovoltaic cells, not assembled in modules | PENDING — confirm at national tariff schedule |
| 8504.40 | Static converters (inverters) | PENDING — confirm at national tariff schedule |
| 8537.10 | Boards, panels, consoles for electric control (combiner boxes, switchgear) | PENDING — confirm at national tariff schedule |
| 7308.90 | Structures of iron/steel — mounting structures | PENDING — confirm at national tariff schedule |
Lookup instructions: consult the destination country’s national tariff schedule (e.g., Mexico TIGIE, Brazil TEC, Chile Arancel Aduanero), the MERCOSUR common nomenclature where applicable, and a licensed customs broker. Disclaimer: duty rates shown are marked PENDING; we never assert a duty rate as fact. Rates depend on origin, FTA preferences (e.g., Pacific Alliance, EU-MERCOSUR), and classification rulings.
All figures are indicative and based on the cited public sources. Site-specific shading, soil, tariff structure, FX, and financing terms will move the result; use this page as a transparent template, not as a substitute for an engineering bid.