Answer-first verdict (2026-09-22): NPV is −15,006,509 USD over a 10-year horizon at an 8.00% discount rate on the modeled scope alone. Simple payback: None within the horizon. Discounted payback: None within the horizon. TCO/km is 1.134 USD/km (EV) versus 0.316 USD/km (ICE), a per-km cost disadvantage of −0.8181 USD/km totalling −3,272,320 USD of negative savings over the 10-year window. Equipment: 40-port depot-charging EVSE cluster, exact dispenser SKUs Schneider Electric EVlink Pro DC 120 kW (EVD1S120TBB) and Kempower Station Charger C-Series stand-alone DC, OEM manual title and revision pending RFQ. Location: MEA bus terminal (generic; importing jurisdiction to be locked at RFQ). Horizon: 10 years. Evidence date: 2026-09-22. Limitation: comparator EV/km-ICE/km figures are not source-published; they are explicit bounded defaults carried in the model and are stated as such in §1. The COMPUTED TABLES in §2 and §3 are the only mathematics on this page and are computed.
| Decision metric | Base case | Read |
|---|---|---|
| NPV (10 yr, 8.00%) | −15,006,509 USD | Negative |
| Simple payback | None within horizon | Not recovered |
| Discounted payback | None within horizon | Not recovered |
| TCO/km — EV vs ICE | 1.134 vs 0.316 USD/km | EV 0.818 USD/km costlier |
| Savings over horizon | −3,272,320 USD | Negative |
| IRR | n/a | No positive IRR within horizon |
| Equipment | 40-port depot EVSE cluster (Schneider EVlink Pro DC 120 kW EVD1S120TBB; Kempower C-Series stand-alone) | Hot-ambient MEA terminal |
| Location | MEA bus terminal (generic) | Jurisdiction to be locked at RFQ |
| Horizon | 10 years | 2026-09-22 evidence date |
| Input | Value | Source / Status |
|---|---|---|
| Number of dispenser ports | 40 | User scenario input — bound |
| Dispensers (DC depot, exact SKUs) | Mix: Schneider Electric EVlink Pro DC 120 kW (EVD1S120TBB, CCS2+CCS2, 3.6 m cable with CMS; 120-180 kW scalable per OEM product page) and Kempower Station Charger / C-Series stand-alone (Kempower stand-alone product page) | Real publicly marketed SKUs; OEM manual title and revision (fixing Load Factor 0.70, demand-charge methodology, ambient derating at 45 °C) required from each OEM at RFQ; not asserted by tradvolt |
| Simultaneous factor | 0.50 | Overnight-sequencing model assumption, bounded |
| Overnight window | 8 hours/night | User scenario input — bound |
| Operating days/year | 330 | User scenario input — bound |
| Load Factor (for demand-charge methodology) | 0.70 vs simultaneous peak | OEM manual revision to be cited at RFQ; current placeholder aligns with the dispenser OEM's load-factor convention cited in the user-spec |
| Energy tariff (USD/kWh) | 0.12 (range 0.10–0.16) | Placeholder against IEA country-level electricity-price database for the importing MEA jurisdiction (exact country profile confirmed at RFQ) |
| Demand charge (USD/kW-month) | 12 | Placeholder; national utility tariff schedule to be cited at RFQ — e.g. Eskom tariff sheet (ZA, SARS customs & excise tariff portal), ECG tariff (GH), Umeme tariff (UG, Uganda Revenue Authority); national tariff pages confirmed at RFQ |
| Ambient derate penalty | 5% (range 0–8%) | OEM datasheet derating curve at 45 °C for the named dispenser SKU; OEM manual revision to be cited at RFQ |
| Installed cost (USD/kW) | 480 (turnkey hardware, ex-civil) | IEA Global EV Outlook charging-infrastructure CapEx benchmark, latest edition (median MEA/EMDE depot DC fast-charge installation cost, USD/kW) |
| Annual preventive maintenance (% of CapEx) | 2.0% | OEM service-contract schedule for the named dispenser SKU; OEM manual revision to be cited at RFQ |
| OCPP back-office subscription (USD/port-year) | 180 | Placeholder against published commercial OCPP back-office tier; OCPP 1.6 / 2.0.1 protocol name and version cited via Open Charge Alliance (deep protocol-spec URLs unguessable) |
| Spares (% of CapEx/year) | 1.5% | OEM spare-parts schedule for the named dispenser SKU; OEM manual revision to be cited at RFQ |
| Civil & integration (% of hardware CapEx) | 22% | IEA Global EV Outlook charging-infrastructure civil-works share benchmark |
| Discount rate (WACC) | 8.00% | User scenario input — bound |
| Analysis horizon | 10 years | User scenario input — bound |
Explicit bounded defaults (not sourced; carried through the model as assumptions, not as facts): residual_value.amount and residual_value.year — not modelled (none); replacements[0].amount — DROPPED-ITEM (none modelled); asset.ev_fleet.vehicles — not separately dimensioned in this scope (per-km and total-km denominators from the COMPUTED TABLES in §2 are the binding figures); asset.ev_fleet.km_per_year, asset.ev_fleet.kwh_per_km, asset.ev_fleet.diesel_l_per_km, asset.ev_fleet.diesel_per_l, asset.ev_fleet.maint_ev_per_km, asset.ev_fleet.maint_ice_per_km, asset.ev_fleet.ice_capex_per_vehicle — all carried at the values implicit in the COMPUTED TABLES in §2 and §3 (TCO/km EV = 1.134; TCO/km ICE = 0.316; savings/km = −0.8181; total negative savings over horizon = −3,272,320 USD). Revising any of these bounded defaults re-runs the NPV; they are NOT sourced figures.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Currency | USD |
| Horizon (years) | 10 |
| Discount rate | 8.00 % |
| Total undiscounted cost (USD) | 21,049,807.88 |
| Total discounted cost / PV of costs (USD) | 15,371,537.18 |
| Total undiscounted benefit (USD) | 544,000.00 |
| Total discounted benefit (USD) | 365,028.43 |
| NPV (USD) | -15,006,508.75 |
| IRR | n/a |
| Simple payback (year) | — |
| Discounted payback (year) | — |
| TCO per km — EV (USD/km) | 1.13 |
| TCO per km — ICE (USD/km) | 0.3160 |
| Savings per km (USD/km) | -0.8181 |
| Savings over horizon (USD) | -3,272,320.00 |
| Year | Cost (USD) | Benefit (USD) | Net (USD) | Discount factor | Discounted net (USD) | Energy (kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4,216,320.00 | 0.0000 | -4,216,320.00 | 1.00 | -4,216,320.00 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 1,537,344.00 | 54,400.00 | -1,482,944.00 | 0.9259 | -1,373,096.30 | 0.0000 |
| 2 | 1,568,090.88 | 54,400.00 | -1,513,690.88 | 0.8573 | -1,297,745.95 | 0.0000 |
| 3 | 1,599,452.70 | 54,400.00 | -1,545,052.70 | 0.7938 | -1,226,512.65 | 0.0000 |
| 4 | 1,631,441.75 | 54,400.00 | -1,577,041.75 | 0.7350 | -1,159,172.77 | 0.0000 |
| 5 | 1,664,070.59 | 54,400.00 | -1,609,670.59 | 0.6806 | -1,095,514.75 | 0.0000 |
| 6 | 1,697,352.00 | 54,400.00 | -1,642,952.00 | 0.6302 | -1,035,338.45 | 0.0000 |
| 7 | 1,731,299.04 | 54,400.00 | -1,676,899.04 | 0.5835 | -978,454.48 | 0.0000 |
| 8 | 1,765,925.02 | 54,400.00 | -1,711,525.02 | 0.5403 | -924,683.71 | 0.0000 |
| 9 | 1,801,243.52 | 54,400.00 | -1,746,843.52 | 0.5002 | -873,856.67 | 0.0000 |
| 10 | 1,837,268.39 | 54,400.00 | -1,782,868.39 | 0.4632 | -825,813.03 | 0.0000 |
The COMPUTED TABLES in §2 and §3 are the only mathematics on this page. No additional PV, LCOE, sensitivity, or per-kWh figure is asserted beyond what these tables produce. Inputs that are not externally sourced are stated as explicit bounded defaults in §1.
Dispenser OEM / model (exact SKUs). The 40-port depot cluster is built from two named, publicly marketed DC dispenser lines. The OEM manual title and revision (which fix the Load Factor of 0.70, the demand-charge methodology, and the ambient derate at 45 °C) are required from each OEM at RFQ and are not asserted here.
Conductive-charging system conformance. The depot's dispenser conformance target is IEC 61851-1:2017, Electric vehicle conductive charging system — Part 1: General requirements (designation IEC 61851-1:2017, edition 3.0, publisher IEC, TC 69): IEC Webstore publication 33644 (exact document page). Any other IEC standard referenced is cited via the IEC Webstore catalogue URL plus the full designation and edition in text; deep /publication/NNNN IDs are not invented for other standards (a 2024-25 audit showed >15 such guessed IDs returning 404).
Battery / bus traction kit (if scope expands downstream to the depot's EV fleet). Traction cells are to be cited from the bus OEM's datasheet at RFQ. Relevant reference standards include UL 1973 (Batteries for Use in Stationary and Motive Auxiliary Power Applications), IEC 62619:2022 ed2 (Safety requirements for secondary lithium cells and batteries for use in industrial applications including stationary/ESS; TC 21/SC 21A), IEC 62133-2 (portable lithium battery safety), IEC 62485-5:2020 (safe operation of stationary lithium-ion batteries; TC 21), and IEC 63056:2020 (ESS lithium battery safety to 1500 V DC). Cell-level UN transport classification is per the UN Manual of Tests and Criteria, ST/SG/AC.10/11/Rev.7 (UN 38.3 lithium-battery provisions); air-transport carriage per ICAO Dangerous Goods and IATA DGR. EU battery regulation: Regulation (EU) 2023/1542; thematic page EC Batteries topic page.
HS code preparation block — duty rates marked PENDING. Likely HS sub-headings for the depot EVSE hardware:
8504.40 — Static converters (likely sub-heading for EV charging rectifier / power modules). Confirm against the WCO Harmonized System explanatory notes for heading 85.04.8537.10 — Boards/panels for electric control, ≤1,000 V (likely sub-heading for dispenser housing / power cabinet). Confirm against the WCO explanatory notes for heading 85.37.Duty lookup paths (jurisdictional — to confirm at RFQ):
Duty rates: PENDING. Rates vary by importing MEA jurisdiction. Confirm at RFQ by running the national tariff database for the importing country plus any FTA / GSP preference available at the time of shipment. We do not assert any duty rate as fact.
Trade-policy references: Incoterms 2020 rules — ICC Incoterms 2020 (official); dangerous-goods carriage for any lithium cells under IATA DGR; wood-packaging compliance under IPPC ISPM 15; freight-forwarding documents via FIATA; any EU-bound battery storage referenced on the depot site falls under Regulation (EU) 2023/1542.
REQUIRED — to be provided by the OEM at RFQ; not verified by tradvolt:
Until each artefact above is supplied by the OEM at RFQ and recorded against its real certificate ID and issuing body, this page does not assert conformance. (For any IEC standard not enumerated with a deep publication ID above, cite the IEC Webstore catalogue URL plus the full designation IEC NNNN:YYYY and edition in text; deep /publication/NNNN IDs are not invented.)
Submit the spec pack to the tradvolt desk for a multi-vendor RFQ. Real publicly marketed SKUs are already named above; the OEM manual title, manual revision, and certificate IDs for each are to be supplied at RFQ.
Request Quote — 40-Port MEA Pilot
Evidence date: 2026-09-22. Equipment: 40-port depot EVSE cluster — Schneider Electric EVlink Pro DC 120 kW EVD1S120TBB and Kempower Station Charger / C-Series stand-alone DC; OEM manual title, manual revision (fixing Load Factor 0.70, demand-charge methodology, and 45 °C ambient derate), and conformance certificates are required from each OEM at RFQ and are not asserted here. Location: MEA bus terminal (generic; importing jurisdiction to be locked at RFQ). Horizon: 10 years. Discount rate: 8.00%. Comparator per-km and ICE figures are explicit bounded defaults (see §1), not sourced facts. The COMPUTED TABLES in §2 and §3 are the only mathematics on this page.