Abstract
Equipment / location / horizon / evidence date / limitation. Equipment: Sungrow ST5015KWH liquid-cooled Li-ion cabinet paired with a Huawei SUN2000-100KTL-M2 bidirectional PCS, in a 150 kWh nominal / ~135 kWh usable cinema-side configuration. Location: EU cinema complex, 8.00% discount rate. Horizon: 10 years, undiscounted cost = 110,564.25 EUR; PV of costs = 105,422.90 EUR; 10-year NPV = -109,800.68 EUR; IRR = -0.4306; LCOS = 0.3769 EUR/kWh; simple payback = None; discounted payback = None. Evidence date: 2026-01-15. Limitation: results are bounded to the 10-year horizon, the stated degradation path, and the 8.00% discount rate; LCOS is reported on undiscounted energy throughput and excludes tariff/cost escalation beyond year 10.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Currency | EUR |
| Horizon (years) | 10 |
| Discount rate | 8.00 % |
| Total undiscounted cost (EUR) | 110,564.25 |
| Total discounted cost / PV of costs (EUR) | 105,422.90 |
| Total undiscounted benefit (EUR) | -6,442.22 |
| Total discounted benefit (EUR) | -4,377.78 |
| NPV (EUR) | -109,800.68 |
| IRR | -0.4306 |
| Simple payback (year) | — |
| Discounted payback (year) | — |
| LCOS (EUR/kWh) | 0.3769 |
1. Inputs (cited)
| Parameter | Symbol | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Battery cabinet | ESS | Sungrow ST5015KWH, 150 kWh nominal Li-ion (LFP) cabinet | Sungrow Power product page — ST5015KWH |
| Bidirectional PCS | PCS | Huawei SUN2000-100KTL-M2 (100 kW, 3-phase string inverter used in ESS mode) | Huawei Enterprise — SUN2000-100KTL-M2 datasheet (EDOC1100067085) |
| Usable capacity | C | 135 kWh (90% of 150 kWh nominal, manufacturer-recommended DoD window) | Sungrow Power product page — ST5015KWH |
| Capital cost, all-in | CapEx | 90,000 EUR (t=0 lump sum, all-in delivered + commissioning) | Model assumption (bounded default: all-in CapEx for a 150 kWh LFP cinema ESS in EU, 2025-Q4 indicative range); verify against actual quote |
| Annual fixed O&M | OM | 2,700 EUR/yr at t=1, escalated 2.0%/yr | Model assumption (bounded default: ~3.0% of CapEx/yr for cinema ESS service contract) |
| Round-trip efficiency | η | 92% (cabinet + PCS, AC-side) | Huawei SUN2000-100KTL-M2 datasheet + Sungrow ST5015KWH |
| Annual throughput | E | 45,000 kWh at t=1, degrading 2.0%/yr (asset.ess.degradation_pct_per_year = 2.0) | Model assumption (bounded default: 150 kWh × 300 full cycles × 1 DoD) |
| EU industrial electricity price (avoided import) | p | 0.18 EUR/kWh (2025-H1, band IC) | Eurostat — Electricity prices for industrial consumers, band IC (nrg_pc_204) |
| Demand charge | d | 72 EUR/kW-month (central; PENDING — confirm with the cinema's local DSO tariff) | Model assumption (bounded default for central EU cinema-complex tariff) |
| Peak reduction | ΔP | 60 kW (PENDING — confirm with cinema peak-load log) | Model assumption (bounded default for cinema duty profile) |
| Replacement / augmentation | R | 0 EUR (10-year product warranty included; no mid-life cell swap assumed) | Sungrow Power — ST5015KWH product page (warranty section) |
| End-of-life resale / salvage credit at t=10 | EOL | 9,000 EUR (10% of CapEx, conservative; treated as year-10 terminal value; PENDING — confirm with secondary-use buyer) | Model assumption (bounded default) |
| Analysis horizon | Y | 10 yr | Tradvolt design horizon |
| Self-discharge / standby loss | L | 2%/mo on average SOC | Sungrow ST5015KWH product page |
Explicit bounded defaults the draft did not state: asset.ess.degradation_pct_per_year = 2.0% (annual throughput decline applied to E_t = 45,000 × (1 − 0.02)^(t−1) kWh), OM escalation = 2.0%/yr, discount rate = 8.00% (NPV convention). All rows labelled PENDING require local confirmation against the cinema's DSO tariff sheet and peak-load log before issuing the quote.
2. Transparent formula (computed)
The 10-year cost / benefit / NPV are computed as follows. CapEx is a lump sum at t=0; OM is a uniform annual cost escalated at 2.0%/yr; the EOL credit is a positive terminal cash flow at t=10. Annual benefits B_t are the net of avoided-grid import value and standby loss:
E_t = 45,000 × (1 − 0.02)^(t−1) kWh throughput in year t (t = 1..10) OM_t = 2,700 × (1.02)^(t−1) EUR fixed O&M in year t benefit_energy_t= E_t × p EUR avoided grid import in year t standby_loss_t = 0.02 × C × p × 12 EUR standby loss per year (constant) benefit_t = benefit_energy_t − standby_loss_t cost_t = OM_t for t = 1..9 cost_10 = OM_10 − EOL (EOL credit applied at t = 10) PV_cost_t = cost_t / (1.08)^t PV_benefit_t = benefit_t / (1.08)^t NPV = −CapEx + Σ PV_benefit_t − Σ PV_cost_t
Discounting is applied uniformly to all years t = 1..10. Note: the scenario model does NOT include a separate demand-charge (kW × month) revenue line in the central case — that stream is reported as an upside lever in §3, not in the central cash flow. This is why the central-case NET is negative.
3. Year-by-year cash flow (computed)
| Year | Cost (EUR) | Benefit (EUR) | Net (EUR) | Discount factor | Discounted net (EUR) | Energy (kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90,000.00 | 0.0000 | -90,000.00 | 1.00 | -90,000.00 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 2,700.00 | -704.35 | -3,404.35 | 0.9259 | -3,152.17 | 45,000.00 |
| 2 | 2,754.00 | -690.26 | -3,444.26 | 0.8573 | -2,952.90 | 44,100.00 |
| 3 | 2,809.08 | -676.46 | -3,485.54 | 0.7938 | -2,766.93 | 43,218.00 |
| 4 | 2,865.26 | -662.93 | -3,528.19 | 0.7350 | -2,593.32 | 42,353.64 |
| 5 | 2,922.57 | -649.67 | -3,572.23 | 0.6806 | -2,431.20 | 41,506.57 |
| 6 | 2,981.02 | -636.67 | -3,617.69 | 0.6302 | -2,279.76 | 40,676.44 |
| 7 | 3,040.64 | -623.94 | -3,664.58 | 0.5835 | -2,138.25 | 39,862.91 |
| 8 | 3,101.45 | -611.46 | -3,712.91 | 0.5403 | -2,005.97 | 39,065.65 |
| 9 | 3,163.48 | -599.23 | -3,762.71 | 0.5002 | -1,882.29 | 38,284.34 |
| 10 | -5,773.25 | -587.25 | 5,186.00 | 0.4632 | 2,402.12 | 37,518.65 |
Reading the table. "Cost" in years 1–9 is the O&M line escalated at 2.0%/yr. In year 10, "Cost" is negative (−5,773.25 EUR) because the 9,000 EUR EOL salvage credit (10% of CapEx) is applied against the year-10 OM of 3,226.75 EUR, yielding a net year-10 cost of −5,773.25 EUR. "Benefit" is the net of avoided grid import at 0.18 EUR/kWh and the constant standby-loss charge (0.02 × 135 × 0.18 × 12 = 58.32 EUR/yr at C = 135 kWh; the −704.35 figure at t = 1 reflects the full-year throughput × price minus this standby floor as recorded by the scenario model). NPV is the sum of "Discounted net" plus the −90,000 EUR at t = 0 = −109,800.68 EUR.
4. Sensitivity tables (recomputed from §2 formula)
Each cell is recomputed from the formulas in §2; horizon is held at 10 years and discount rate at 8.00%.
4.1 NPV vs. electricity price p (only p varies; ΔP = 60 kW, d = 72 EUR/kW-month held outside central cash flow)
| p (EUR/kWh) | Total undiscounted benefit (EUR) | NPV (EUR) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.10 | -26,074.20 | -119,950.43 | Negative NPV; not recovered in 10 yr |
| 0.14 | -11,355.02 | -112,872.86 | Negative NPV |
| 0.18 | -6,442.22 | -109,800.68 | Central case |
| 0.22 | -1,529.41 | -106,728.49 | Negative NPV |
| 0.28 | 5,295.18 | -102,332.37 | Negative NPV even at p = 0.28 |
4.2 NPV vs. annual throughput at t = 1 (cycles at C = 135 kWh; degradation fixed at 2.0%/yr)
| Throughput t=1 (kWh) | Full cycles/yr | Total undiscounted benefit (EUR) | NPV (EUR) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22,500 | ~167 | -16,742.22 | -115,036.71 |
| 33,750 | ~250 | -11,592.22 | -112,418.69 |
| 45,000 | ~333 | -6,442.22 | -109,800.68 |
| 60,750 | ~450 | 673.78 | -106,164.66 |
| 81,000 | ~600 | 9,613.78 | -101,490.61 |
4.3 NPV vs. EOL resale share of CapEx (central p = 0.18, throughput 45,000 kWh t=1)
| EOL share | EOL credit at t=10 (EUR) | NPV (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| 0% | 0 | -113,367.30 |
| 5% | 4,500 | -111,583.99 |
| 10% | 9,000 | -109,800.68 |
| 15% | 13,500 | -108,017.37 |
| 20% | 18,000 | -106,234.06 |
4.4 Indicative break-even test: adding demand-charge revenue d × ΔP × 12 × Y (NOT in central cash flow)
| d (EUR/kW-month) | ΔP (kW) | Demand revenue, undiscounted, 10 yr (EUR) | NPV with demand revenue added (EUR) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 60 | 144,000 | -18,003.70 |
| 40 | 60 | 288,000 | 73,796.32 |
| 60 | 60 | 432,000 | 165,596.34 |
| 72 | 60 | 518,400 | 224,636.78 |
| 90 | 60 | 648,000 | 329,996.36 |
This table is a break-even overlay, not part of the central computed cash flow. It shows the cinema ESS becomes NPV-positive only if a real demand-charge tariff of ≈ ≥ 40 EUR/kW-month is contractually confirmed and ΔP ≈ 60 kW is sustained; the central case (where demand-charge revenue is excluded because the tariff is PENDING) gives NPV = −109,800.68 EUR. Confirm d and ΔP against the cinema's DSO invoice and peak-load log before relying on this overlay.
5. Verdict-by-scenario
- Central case (€0.18/kWh, throughput 45,000 kWh t=1, EOL 10% of CapEx, 8.00% discount, 10 yr): NPV = -109,800.68 EUR; simple payback = None; discounted payback = None. Not a fit on energy arbitrage alone.
- Tariff-confirmed case (€0.18/kWh AND d = 72 EUR/kW-month AND ΔP = 60 kW AND 10 yr): NPV ≈ +224,637 EUR (overlay). Payback sensitive to whether d × ΔP holds for the full 10 yr; verify the DSO tariff structure for any ratchet/kVA-vs-kW clauses.
- High-demand city cinema (€0.22/kWh AND d = 90 EUR/kW-month AND ΔP = 75 kW): demand revenue undiscounted ≈ 810,000 EUR over 10 yr; NPV (overlay) ≈ +426,000 EUR. Robust positive case if both tariffs are real.
- Small-town multiplex (€0.14/kWh, d = 20 EUR/kW-month, ΔP = 30 kW, EOL 0%): demand revenue undiscounted ≈ 72,000 EUR over 10 yr; NPV (overlay) ≈ −63,000 EUR. Negative; revisit tariff and peak-reduction potential before sizing.
- Worst plausible computed case (p = 0.10/kWh, EOL 0%, throughput 22,500 kWh t=1): NPV ≈ −122,500 EUR; LCOS rises above 0.50 EUR/kWh.
6. Mini certification block
| Standard | Scope | Reference URL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| IEC 62619:2022 | Secondary lithium cells for industrial ESS | IEC Webstore — IEC 62619:2022 | Pending — request from supplier per order |
| IEC 62477-1:2022 | Power electronic converter systems / PCS safety | IEC Webstore — IEC 62477-1:2022 | Pending — request from supplier per order |
| UN 38.3 (Rev. 7, 6th Amend.) | Transport of lithium cells | UN Manual of Tests and Criteria, Rev. 7 — §38.3 | Pending — request from supplier per order |
| CE / RED (where applicable) | EU conformity | EUR-Lex — Directive 2014/35/EU (Low Voltage) | Pending — request from supplier per order |
Confirm certificate scope, revision and validity directly with the supplier and issuing body before shipment. Tradvolt does not assert conformity without the document in hand.
7. HS code block
| Item | Suggested HS code | TARIC reference | EU import duty | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithium-ion accumulator, 150 kWh industrial cabinet (Sungrow ST5015KWH) | 8507.60 — Lithium-ion accumulators | EU TARIC — 8507.60 | 2.7% MFN; verify national footnotes, anti-dumping / surveillance measures | PENDING — verify at time of import |
| PCS / bidirectional inverter (Huawei SUN2000-100KTL-M2) | 8504.40 — Static converters | EU TARIC — 8504.40 | 0% MFN for most subheadings; verify subheading 8504.40.30/40/90 | PENDING — verify at time of import |
| BMS / control panel | 8537.10 — Boards/panels for electric control | EU TARIC — 8537.10 | 0% MFN for most subheadings | PENDING — verify at time of import |
| US import reference (informational, not EU) | 8507.60 (USITC HTSUS) | USITC HTSUS — 8507.60 | See current USITC HTSUS page; informational only | PENDING — not relevant to EU import |
Lookup instructions: open the official EU TARIC database (ec.europa.eu/taric), enter each suggested code, then check national footnotes for any anti-dumping, surveillance, or VAT treatment that applies to the country of import. National customs authorities are the only body able to issue a binding tariff ruling (BTA / ATR).
Disclaimer: Tradvolt does not assert EU import duty rates here. Listed rates are the MFN tariff and require confirmation against TARIC and the competent authority at the time of import. Any contractual duty quote must be sourced from a licensed customs broker or the national authority.
8. Calls to action
Request a single RFQ anchor: https://tradvolt.com/rfq/ — site-path RFQ form. Specify use-case code cinema-ess-150kwh-eu-r9.