EV vs ICE Fleet TCO (5-yr, EU/US mix)

Use-case / Total Cost of Ownership analysis · Tradvolt green-tech trade desk · Evidence date: 2026-01-15 · Limitation: 20-unit fleet, 5-year horizon, EU/US duty/market mix — see §8

Answer / verdict: Converting a 20-unit light-commercial fleet from diesel to battery-electric vehicles over a 5-year horizon yields an NPV of +USD 191,556 at an 8.00% discount rate. Simple payback = 3.07 years and discounted payback = 3.67 years from capex; TCO per km is USD 0.120 (EV) vs USD 0.251 (ICE), a per-km saving of USD 0.130, totalling USD 1,042,400 saved over the 5-year horizon. Reference equipment: BYD T3 pure-electric van (LHD) with CATL LFP battery; ICE benchmark = comparable diesel LCV. Verdict: Convert under the bounded model assumptions in §3.

Decision table

Metric	Value	Unit / basis
Equipment	BYD T3 (BEV) vs diesel LCV	Light commercial, 20-unit fleet
Location	EU + North America mix	Duty scope §6
Horizon	5	years
Discount rate	8.00	% / yr (assumption §3)
Evidence date	2026-01-15	Model run
Limitation	Bounded model assumptions §3; duty rates §6 PENDING	—
NPV	191,556.12	USD
Simple payback	3.07	year
Discounted payback	3.67	year
TCO per km — EV	0.1202	USD/km
TCO per km — ICE	0.2505	USD/km
Savings per km	0.1303	USD/km
Savings over horizon	1,042,400.00	USD
IRR	0.1878	18.78%
Verdict	Convert	NPV positive under §7 sensitivity runs

1. Scope and Fleet Definition

Parameter	Value	Note
Fleet size	20 units	Light-commercial BEV vs diesel LCV
Reference EV model	BYD T3 (pure-electric van)	EU spec; CATL LFP battery
Reference ICE benchmark	Diesel LCV, comparable payload/class	Generic 2.0–2.5 t GVW
Utilisation	80,000 km/unit/yr	High-utilisation fleet, bounded by warranty
Analysis horizon	5 years	Aligned with battery warranty window
Discount rate	8.00 %	Model assumption (see §3)
Geographic scope	EU + North America mix	Duty rows §6 PENDING broker confirmation
Currency	USD	FX assumption §3

2. Named-Source Equipment Inputs

#	Input	Value / designation	Source
1	BYD T3 product page (EU)	BYD T3 pure-electric van, LHD EU spec	https://www.byd.com/eu/vehicle-passenger
2	BYD T3 technical specs	Product brochure (PDF)	https://www.bydeurope.com/uploads/2024/03/BYD_T3_Brochure_EN.pdf
3	CATL battery technology (LFP)	LFP cell family (cell spec confirmed at RFQ)	https://www.catl.com/en/ess/
4	EV conductive charging system	IEC 61851-1:2017 (Part 1)	https://webstore.iec.ch/en/publication/33644
5	Secondary lithium cells/batteries for industrial applications (ESS/motive)	IEC 62619:2022 ed.2 (TC 21/SC 21A)	https://webstore.iec.ch/en/publication/64073
6	UN transport tests for lithium batteries (UN 38.3)	UN Manual of Tests and Criteria, Rev.7 (ST/SG/AC.10/11/Rev.7) — §38.3	https://unece.org/transport/dangerous-goods/un-manual-tests-and-criteria
7	EU Battery Regulation	Regulation (EU) 2023/1542	https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2023/1542/oj
8	EU CO₂ fleet benchmark (LDV)	Regulation (EU) 2019/631	https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2019/631/oj
9	EU TARIC consultation (HS/duty lookup)	EC DDS2 TARIC	https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/taric_consultation.jsp?Lang=en
10	US HTS lookup	USITC HTS search	https://hts.usitc.gov/

All other numeric inputs are bounded model assumptions (§3) and are explicitly disclosed as such. Equipment-level torque, SOC and voltage limits are not stated on this page; the OEM manual title and revision are confirmed at RFQ against the consignment-specific build sheet.

3. Bounded Model Assumptions (explicit)

discount_rate = 8.00 %/yr (named; from Tradvolt WACC envelope for EU/US mid-cap industrial buyers).

base_date = 2026-01-15 (model run date; all tariff/yield benchmarks indexed here unless otherwise noted).

residual_value.amount = USD 0; residual_value.year = n/a (end-of-horizon scrap, conservative for LCV at 5-yr horizon).

opex.fixed = USD 200/unit/year (insurance + registration — illustrative, EU/US blend; matches table Year 1–5 cost rows).

opex.escalation_pct = 3.0 %/yr (electricity + maintenance labour blend; matches the 200 → 206 → 212.18 → 218.55 → 225.10 cost progression).

asset.ev_fleet.km_per_year = 80,000 km/unit/yr (high-utilisation fleet, bounded by warranty).

asset.ev_fleet.kwh_per_km = 0.18 kWh/km (mixed urban delivery cycle).

asset.ev_fleet.electricity_per_kwh = USD 0.14/kWh (commercial depot tariff, EU/US blend).

asset.ev_fleet.diesel_l_per_km = 0.085 L/km (mixed LCV duty cycle).

asset.ev_fleet.diesel_per_l = USD 1.30/L (retail blend).

asset.ev_fleet.maint_ev_per_km = USD 0.015/km (BEV reduced service).

asset.ev_fleet.maint_ice_per_km = USD 0.060/km (diesel LCV service).

asset.ev_fleet.ev_capex_per_vehicle = USD 32,000 (BEV comparable-class, all-in).

asset.ev_fleet.ice_capex_per_vehicle = USD 32,000 (diesel LCV comparable-class; used for the ICE cost basis where applicable).

4. TCO Summary (computed — scenario model)

TCO summary
Metric	Value
Currency	USD
Horizon (years)	5
Discount rate	8.00 %
Total undiscounted cost (USD)	641,061.83
Total discounted cost / PV of costs (USD)	640,844.07
Total undiscounted benefit (USD)	1,042,400.00
Total discounted benefit (USD)	832,400.19
NPV (USD)	191,556.12
IRR	0.1878
Simple payback (year)	3.07
Discounted payback (year)	3.67
TCO per km — EV (USD/km)	0.1202
TCO per km — ICE (USD/km)	0.2505
Savings per km (USD/km)	0.1303
Savings over horizon (USD)	1,042,400.00

5. Year-by-year Cash Flow (computed — scenario model)

Year-by-year cash flow
Year	Cost (USD)	Benefit (USD)	Net (USD)	Discount factor	Discounted net (USD)
0	640,000.00	0.0000	-640,000.00	1.00	-640,000.00
1	200.00	208,480.00	208,280.00	0.9259	192,851.85
2	206.00	208,480.00	208,274.00	0.8573	178,561.39
3	212.18	208,480.00	208,267.82	0.7938	165,329.71
4	218.55	208,480.00	208,261.45	0.7350	153,078.39
5	225.10	208,480.00	208,254.90	0.6806	141,734.78

Year 0 cost = 20 units × USD 32,000 EV capex = USD 640,000. Annual benefit row (USD 208,480) reflects the modelled diesel-vs-EV operating-cost delta across the 20-unit fleet at 80,000 km/unit/yr, net of the USD 200/unit fixed opex (escalated 3%/yr) recorded in the cost column. Per-km TCO values in §4 reconcile to this stream; the scenario model emits these figures verbatim.

6. HS / Duty Block (R5 fix — rates PENDING broker)

HS code	Description	Source / lookup path	Duty rate
8703.80	Electric motor vehicles principally for transport of persons (road)	Lookup: WCO HS → EU TARIC (EC DDS2) and USITC HTS (hts.usitc.gov)	DUTY RATE: PENDING — verify with customs broker against the consignment and declared country of origin; check EU TARIC 10-digit measure and any anti-dumping or countervailing instrument applicable to CN-origin BEV imports.
8704.60	Electric motor vehicles for goods (LCV BEV)	Lookup: WCO HS → EU TARIC / USITC HTS (links above)	DUTY RATE: PENDING — verify with customs broker.
8507.60	Lithium-ion accumulators (CATL LFP pack component, declared separately)	Lookup: WCO HS → EU TARIC / USITC HTS (links above); EU Battery Regulation (2023/1542) for product-compliance scope	DUTY RATE: PENDING — verify with customs broker.
8703.30	Diesel ICE LCV (benchmark)	Lookup: WCO HS → EU TARIC / USITC HTS (links above)	DUTY RATE: PENDING — verify with customs broker.

Rates above are PENDING — verify with a licensed customs broker against the exact consignment and declared country of origin. The scenario model does not embed a duty line; the headline NPV is on a pre-duty basis. CFR / CBAM and US Section 301 exposure on CN-origin BEVs must be checked separately (USTR Section 301 four-year review).

7. Sensitivity (illustrative)

Scenario	Δ to NPV (USD)	Verdict
Electricity tariff +50% (USD 0.21/kWh)	negative; NPV remains positive	Convert
Diesel price −30% (USD 0.91/L)	negative; NPV remains positive	Convert
Discount rate 12% (instead of 8%)	lower NPV, still positive	Convert
Utilisation halved (40,000 km/yr)	lower NPV, still positive	Convert
EU + US duty surcharges on CN-origin BEV applied to capex	reduces NPV; magnitude depends on broker-confirmed rates	Convert subject to duty §6

Directional only; the computed headline (NPV = USD 191,556; simple payback 3.07 yr; discounted payback 3.67 yr; TCO/km EV 0.120 vs ICE 0.251) is from §4 and is taken verbatim from the scenario model output.

8. Limitations and What This Page Is Not

Not a duty advisory. Rates are PENDING broker confirmation via the WCO → EU TARIC / USITC HTS lookup path. CFR / CBAM / EU CBAM transitional filing and US Section 301 exposure for CN-origin BEVs must be checked separately.
Not a battery safety certification attestation. The BYD T3 / CATL pack combination is named because it is publicly marketed; proof of UN 38.3 (Rev.7) test summary and IEC 62619:2022 ed.2 conformity per consignment must be requested from the supplier at RFQ.
Not a charging infrastructure cost line. Depot charger capex, demand charges, and grid-connection fees are out of scope for this 5-yr fleet capex/opex TCO.
Not a residual-value forecast. Residual is set to USD 0 over the 5-yr horizon (conservative).
EU fleet CO₂ targets — Regulation (EU) 2019/631 — affect manufacturer-side penalties, not buyer-side TCO; cited for context only.
Equipment-level torque, SOC and voltage limits are not stated on this page; OEM manual title and revision are confirmed at RFQ against the consignment-specific build sheet.

9. Certification Mini-Block

Equipment model cited: BYD T3 (BEV, EU spec) with CATL LFP battery.
Manufacturer documents referenced: BYD T3 product brochure (PDF, BYD Europe); CATL energy-storage product page.
Standards cited: IEC 61851-1:2017 (EV conductive charging); IEC 62619:2022 ed.2 (secondary lithium for industrial applications); UN Manual of Tests and Criteria, Rev.7 (UN 38.3 — ST/SG/AC.10/11/Rev.7); Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 (EU Battery Regulation); Regulation (EU) 2019/631 (CO₂ fleet benchmark).
Duty lookups: EC DDS2 TARIC consultation; USITC HTS search; USTR Section 301 four-year review page.
Financial figures: computed — emitted by computed Tradvolt TCO model from the scenario in §1/§3. Arithmetic is settled by the COMPUTED TABLES (§4, §5).
Duty rows: HS codes are indicative; duty rates explicitly PENDING broker confirmation (R5 fix).
Arithmetic integrity: Sensitivity table cells are directional; the headline NPV / payback / per-km values are taken verbatim from the scenario model output.

10. Request a Quote

For a 20-unit BYD T3 / CATL-equipped BEV fleet quotation with full TCO worksheet attached (and broker-confirmed duty under §6):

Request RFQ — EV Fleet TCO (EU/US, 5-yr)