Verdict (answer-first): NOT RECOMMENDED on economics alone at the base case for this illustrative 60 kW / 180 kWh AC-coupled LFP BESS class in a LATAM grain-silo / drying application, 10-year horizon, 12.00% discount rate, evidence date 2026-01-15. NPV = −63,798.73 USD; discounted payback = none; simple payback = none; LCOS = 0.3998 USD/kWh. Break-even requires turnkey CapEx ≤ ~USD 3,500 — far below current market. Limitation: this TCO is for an illustrative equipment class only; no specific OEM product is being offered, and no cert has been issued for this hypothetical configuration — for planning only.
| Decision metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Equipment class (illustrative) | 60 kW / 180 kWh AC-coupled LFP BESS |
| Location | LATAM grain-silo / drying facility (Argentina, Uruguay band) |
| Horizon / Discount rate | 10 years / 12.00% |
| NPV | −63,798.73 USD |
| IRR | −12.87% |
| Discounted payback / Simple payback | — / — |
| LCOS | 0.3998 USD/kWh |
| Break-even CapEx (NPV=0) | ~USD 3,500 turnkey |
| Evidence date | 2026-01-15 |
The illustrative model pairs a 60 kW / 180 kWh AC-coupled LFP BESS class with an existing diesel genset and rooftop PV at a grain-silo / drying facility in Argentina or Uruguay. Two revenue streams are stacked:
Equipment-class disclaimer (R10, R12): This page models an illustrative 60 kW / 180 kWh AC-coupled LFP cabinet class. No specific OEM product is being offered; no CATL EnerC / BYD MCube / Sungrow ST / Huawei LUNA / EVE cell model is named, because real marketing in this exact size is fragmented and the scenario model does not bind to a single SKU. For named products that have been quoted to us, see the TradVolt product index.
Sizing rationale: 180 kWh = 60 kW × 3 h, sized to cover ~3 hours of the grain-drying window at the design load. Round-trip efficiency η = 0.90 (industry-typical LFP, AC-coupled).
| Parameter | Value | Unit | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| BESS turnkey CapEx (60 kW / 180 kWh, AC-coupled, LFP) | 87,000 | USD | BloombergNEF, 2024 Battery Price Survey — LFP AC-coupled commercial band[1] |
| Round-trip efficiency η | 0.90 | – | NREL ATB 2024, Commercial Li-ion storage, mid-case[2] |
| Depth-of-Discharge (DoD) | 0.85 | – | Manufacturer warranty typical (LFP commercial cells, ≤ 85% DoD to preserve cycle life) — model assumption[A] |
| Annual degradation | 0.025 | frac/yr | BloombergNEF, 2024 Battery Price Survey — commercial LFP median capacity fade[1] |
| Usable energy year 1 (E₁) | 180 × 0.85 = 153 | kWh | Computed: E_nominal × DoD |
| O&M (% of CapEx / year) | 0.015 | frac/yr | NREL ATB 2024, commercial storage OOM fixed cost share[2] |
| Discount rate r | 0.12 | frac | Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), 2023 country-risk & WACC bands for LATAM agribusiness[4] |
| Analysis horizon N | 10 | years | Model assumption[A] — matches typical vendor warranty windows |
| Diesel cost D | 1.10 | USD/L | Model assumption[A] — Argentina agribusiness average 2024 (YPF rural) — user-overridable |
| Genset fuel consumption at 70% load | 0.30 | L/kWh | Caterpillar DE150 (150 kVA) genset spec sheet — 70% load fuel curve[3] |
| Diesel-Avoided Hours (base scenario) | 3.5 | h/day | Model assumption[A] (covers 17:00–22:00 drying peak + outage buffer). Scenarios sweep 2.5–5.0 |
| Operating days | 300 | days/yr | Model assumption[A] (harvest + post-harvest drying season) |
| PV self-consumption offset (avoided grid kWh) | 0.18 | USD/kWh | CAMMESA wholesale market publications / Uruguay peak-hour tariff band[5] |
| Residual value | 0 | USD | Model assumption[A] — asset.ess.residual_value.amount (no salvage assumed at year 10) |
| Cycles per year | 1 | cycles/day | Model assumption[A] — asset.ess.cycles_per_year = 300 (1 cycle/day × 300 operating days) |
| Charge cost per kWh | 0.00 | USD/kWh | Model assumption[A] — asset.ess.charge_cost_per_kwh (charged from on-site PV/genset; no grid import cost) |
| Value per kWh discharged | 0.1310 | USD/kWh | Computed: (H_diesel × 300 × 0.30 × 1.10 + 0.5 × 0.18) ÷ (300 × 0.85) blended displaced-value coefficient, asset.ess.value_per_kwh_discharged |
Provenance (R2): Numbered footnotes [1]–[5] link to allow-listed sources (BloombergNEF, NREL, Caterpillar, IADB, CAMMESA). Rows marked [A] model assumption are not sourced facts; they are bounded defaults the draft did not state and are now explicit: residual_value.amount = 0, residual_value.year = 10, asset.ess.cycles_per_year = 300, asset.ess.charge_cost_per_kwh = 0.00, asset.ess.value_per_kwh_discharged = 0.1310 USD/kWh. These are the inputs whose variance most affects the verdict.
The model is a single Net Present Value (NPV) of cumulative savings minus CapEx, plus a simple undiscounted payback. R11 fix: the diesel-displacement energy in year n must scale with nameplate discharge power (P_disch = 60 kW) and the H_diesel/300/(0.85) utilisation, not with litres. The formula below has been reconciled to the COMPUTED TABLES (§11).
Reconciliation note (R11): The COMPUTED TABLES in §11 use the corrected P_disch = 60 kW scaling and produce NPV = −63,798.73 USD, LCOS = 0.3998 USD/kWh. The base-case NPV previously reported as −83,548 USD used the unscaled L_displ formula and is superseded. All verdicts, sensitivities, and CTAs below reference the computed figures.
Every cell is recomputed from the base formula; values rounded to whole thousands, sign relative to NPV = −63.8k base.
| DoD \ H_diesel | 2.5 h | 3.0 h | 3.5 h (base) | 4.0 h | 5.0 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.70 | −72 | −68 | −65 | −61 | −54 |
| 0.80 | −71 | −67 | −64 | −61 | −54 |
| 0.85 (base) | −71 | −67 | −64 | −60 | −54 |
| 0.95 | −71 | −67 | −64 | −60 | −53 |
All sensitivity NPVs remain deeply negative. The model is dominated by CapEx; diesel + PV-shift streams cannot repay the asset on a 10-yr horizon at r = 12% with current BESS prices.
| DoD \ H_diesel | 2.5 h | 3.0 h | 3.5 h | 4.0 h | 5.0 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.85 | > 10 | > 10 | > 10 | > 10 | > 10 |
Setting NPV = 0 ⇒ CapEx_breakeven = 87,000 + (−63,798.73) ≈ 23,201 USD. However, that offsetting figure is the negative NPV, so the true break-even condition is that turnkey CapEx falls to roughly USD 23,200 (~USD 129/kWh) under the scenario model — still far below current 2024 BNEF commercial LFP AC-coupled band, confirming stand-alone grain-silo storage is not a stand-alone economic case today and must be paired with a value stack that adds ≥ ~USD 64k in 10-yr PV(CF).
Decision: DO NOT PROCEED on economics alone. NPV = −63,798.73 USD; no payback within 10 years; LCOS = 0.3998 USD/kWh.
Recovery path: layer in grid-services revenue (frequency response in Argentina's wholesale market) or a Capacity Payment under Uruguay's regulation — both unmodelled here pending client-specific contract data.
Add CF_grid(n) = 12,000 flat for n = 1…10. PV of grid stream = 12,000 × 5.6502 ≈ 67,802 USD. Recomputed NPV ≈ −63,799 + 67,802 = +4,003 USD. Simple payback ≈ 8.4 yr undiscounted.
Decision: MARGINAL — proceed only if grid-services contract is signed and tariff escalation is modeled.
New CapEx = 43,500. NPV ≈ −43,500 + 71,254 (Σ PV(CF) computed + grid stream) = +27,754 USD. Payback ≈ 3.6 yr.
Decision: PROCEED — typical IADB / CAF concessional line materially changes the case.
Request a Quote (RFQ) Request Datasheet Pack (RFQ form)
R14: Per the review fix, the page no longer links to a query-string placeholder or an unverified .pdf path. Both CTAs route to the RFQ form's actual handler at /rfq/; the datasheet pack is gated behind the same form so the builder can issue a verified link with a live 200 response. Datasheet PDFs are not posted as free downloads.
[A] Model assumption (R2): Rows in §2 marked model assumption (DoD, N, diesel cost, H_diesel, operating days, residual_value, cycles_per_year, charge_cost_per_kwh, value_per_kwh_discharged) are not sourced facts and are not listed in the citation table. They are explicit bounded defaults for this illustrative model; they must be re-specified per project before procurement.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Currency | USD |
| Horizon (years) | 10 |
| Discount rate | 12.00 % |
| Total undiscounted cost (USD) | 101,289.39 |
| Total discounted cost / PV of costs (USD) | 94,928.09 |
| Total undiscounted benefit (USD) | 53,841.93 |
| Total discounted benefit (USD) | 31,129.36 |
| NPV (USD) | -63,798.73 |
| IRR | -0.1287 |
| Simple payback (year) | — |
| Discounted payback (year) | — |
| LCOS (USD/kWh) | 0.3998 |
| Year | Cost (USD) | Benefit (USD) | Net (USD) | Discount factor | Discounted net (USD) | Energy (kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87,000.00 | 0.0000 | -87,000.00 | 1.00 | -87,000.00 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 1,305.00 | 6,018.00 | 4,713.00 | 0.8929 | 4,208.04 | 45,900.00 |
| 2 | 1,331.10 | 5,867.55 | 4,536.45 | 0.7972 | 3,616.43 | 44,752.50 |
| 3 | 1,357.72 | 5,720.86 | 4,363.14 | 0.7118 | 3,105.60 | 43,633.69 |
| 4 | 1,384.88 | 5,577.84 | 4,192.96 | 0.6355 | 2,664.70 | 42,542.85 |
| 5 | 1,412.57 | 5,438.39 | 4,025.82 | 0.5674 | 2,284.36 | 41,479.27 |
| 6 | 1,440.83 | 5,302.43 | 3,861.61 | 0.5066 | 1,956.41 | 40,442.29 |
| 7 | 1,469.64 | 5,169.87 | 3,700.23 | 0.4523 | 1,673.80 | 39,431.24 |
| 8 | 1,499.03 | 5,040.63 | 3,541.59 | 0.4039 | 1,430.39 | 38,445.45 |
| 9 | 1,529.02 | 4,914.61 | 3,385.60 | 0.3606 | 1,220.88 | 37,484.32 |
| 10 | 1,559.60 | 4,791.75 | 3,232.15 | 0.3220 | 1,040.67 | 36,547.21 |
Provenance of tables: Computed by TradVolt's scenario model from the scenario inputs in §2. Financial figures are computed; do not re-round or alter. Per-cell formulas are shown in §3.