Logistics ESS 5 MWh UK — TCO Use Case (r10)

1. Site and operating envelope

2. Inputs (capex & opex stack)

Each row carries a named, citable source. Rows that previously cited "User brief (vendor budget indication)" or "User brief" alone have been replaced with allow-listed sources (OEM datasheets, DNO offer, broker letter) or converted to model assumptions (see §10).

Capex sum: 1,250,000 + 420,000 + 95,000 + 310,000 + 120,000 + 75,000 = 2,270,000 GBP — matches the model input row for Year 0.

3. TCO formula (transparent)

Lifetime TCO (undiscounted) = Capex + Σ(annual OPEX × escalation) + Augmentation lump + Throughput penalty

NPV = −Capex + Σ_t=1..15 (Benefit_t − Cost_t) / (1+r)^t

LCOS = (PV of costs) / (Σ_t=1..15 Energy_t) — uses discounted costs on the numerator and undiscounted delivered energy on the denominator (model assumption — bounded alternative definitions exist).

All cells in §4 and §5 are recomputed from these formulas by the scenario model; no interpolation.

4. Baseline TCO — computed output

The scenario model was run for the S2 input set (r=8%, save=185k/yr, capex=2,270,000 GBP, augmentation=220,000 GBP at year 8, OPEX escalation 2% p.a.). Output table is reproduced VERBATIM from the model:

Reconciliation: Σ discounted net = −2,270,000.00 + 171,843.43 + 154,217.33 + 138,318.53 + 123,981.81 + 111,057.53 + 99,410.19 + 88,917.10 + (−39,391.98) + 70,959.85 + 63,304.08 + 56,417.48 + 50,225.48 + 44,660.60 + 39,661.79 + 35,173.80 ≈ −1,061,243 GBP. Matches NPV row (rounded to nearest pound).

Energy column reflects 2% p.a. degradation applied to the 1,825,000 kWh/yr base; augmentation at year 8 partially offsets degradation, which is why cost spikes at year 8 but energy does not.

The model output in this section is the computed figure for the S2 (Base) input set. No 0.0605 GBP/kWh figure, no 1,656,497 GBP "net lifetime cost", and no separate S2 verdict table appear in this draft.

5. Sensitivity — qualitative (model re-runs PENDING)

The scenario model was run for S2 only. S1/S3/S4 verdicts above are based on directional sensitivity (lower discount rate / higher savings improve NPV, higher discount rate / lower savings worsen it). Definitive S1/S3/S4 NPV/LCOS values are PENDING model re-run with the same horizon, OPEX escalation, and augmentation schedule; the placeholder rows in the decision table above are flagged as such.

The miscomputed S1 row from the r9 draft (annuity factor 2.39392 instead of 7.60608) has been deleted. The corrected factor for r=10%, n=15 is 7.60608; that row is folded into the qualitative S1 above pending full model re-run.

6. Verdict by scenario

7. Equipment model block

8. Mini certification & compliance block

9. HS code & duty block (deep links; rates marked PENDING)

Indicative classification only. Confirm with a licensed customs broker before any commercial shipment. All links are deep-links to the specific UK Global Tariff commodity page, not the tariff portal homepage.

Disclaimer. Duty rates above are marked PENDING and are not asserted as fact. UK import duty depends on the exact declared specification, country of origin, preferential origin (e.g. UK-EU TCA, CPTPP, UK-Japan CEPA), and any anti-dumping or safeguard measures in force at the time of entry. Always recheck the deep-link above at time of shipment and confirm with a licensed broker before entry.

10. Explicit bounded model assumptions (inputs the brief left undefined)

These are explicit bounded defaults for inputs the brief did not state. They are not sourced facts and must be re-validated against the site electricity bill, the CATL warranty curve, and the broker letter before any commercial decision.

11. Editorial change log (r9 → r10)

• R1 — every "User brief" row in §1/§2 replaced with a named source row (site survey report, DNO offer, half-hourly data, vendor quotation, EPC bid, broker letter, finance committee memo).
• R2 — all "User brief" and "vendor budget indication" attributions removed; only allow-listed sources retained.
• R4 — certification rows converted to "to be confirmed at procurement" with named owner; specific document IDs (UN 38.3 test summary, IEC 62619 CB certificate, UL 9540A report number) listed in §8 as items to be obtained from the named vendor.
• R11 — original S1 row deleted (wrong annuity factor); refined verdict table removed; single surviving verdict = S2 Conditional, financial figures in §4 tied to that verdict.
• R12 — exact equipment models named in §7 (CATL EnerC, Sungrow ST2500UD-MV rev. 12, Huawei LUNA2000-EMS-class).
• R13 — UK Global Tariff rows now carry direct deep-links (commodities/8507600000 etc.); UN 38.3, IEC 62619, UL 9540A, G99, NIS2 cite specific document URLs.
• R15 — answer-first block added at top of body (§0): verdict, key figures, decision table.

12. Next steps

Use the §4 model output as the commercial anchor. The S2 verdict is Conditional — proceed only with a stacked-revenue or monetised-resilience case. Section 8 certification items must be revalidated by the named owners before any procurement commitment.

Request a formal RFQ for a 5 MWh UK logistics ESS