Verdict: NPV = +75,028,570 ZAR; IRR = 42.73%; discounted payback = 2.85 years; simple payback = 2.40 years; LCOE = 0.4010 ZAR/kWh. Equipment: 5 MWp ground-mount PV plant (LONGi Hi-MO X6 / Hi-MO 9 / Jinko Tiger Neo 3.0 / Sungrow SG3125HV central inverter or SG125HT string inverter), single hyperscale/colocation data-centre campus, Eskom grid-tied with wheeling option. Horizon 25 years; discount rate 9.50% (real). Evidence-date: CSIR, SAPVIA, IEA-PVPS, SARB and JSE data published through Q4-2025; IEC, UN and EUR-Lex regulatory citations through 2026. Limitation: this is an LCOE-first model; the full-cashflow verdict is highly sensitive to the tariff/escalation assumptions in §2.1 and must be re-run against a bankable PPA or wheeling agreement before procurement sign-off.
| Metric | Value | Source / Comment |
|---|---|---|
| NPV (ZAR) | +75,028,569.95 | TradVolt computed, settled; sum of discounted net cash flows |
| IRR | +42.73% | TradVolt computed, settled; based on 8,250,000 kWh year-1 yield series |
| Discounted payback | 2.85 yr | TradVolt computed, settled |
| Simple payback | 2.40 yr | TradVolt computed, settled |
| LCOE (ZAR/kWh) | 0.4010 | TradVolt computed, settled |
| Verdict vs Eskom Megaflex blended (~1.20 ZAR/kWh) | LCOE 0.4010 vs ~1.20 ZAR/kWh ⇒ ~67% saving on the energy-only line at 0% real escalation | Eskom Megaflex 2024 PDF |
| Verdict vs full-cashflow NPV | Strongly positive under modelled yield + tariff series; revisit with bankable PPA | Tariff assumption is a bounded model input, see §2.1 |
| Subsystem | Named model (publicly marketed) | Public evidence URL |
|---|---|---|
| PV module (option A) | LONGi Hi-MO X6 (HPBC cell, Explorer / Scientist / Guardian series) | https://www.longi.com/en/products/modules-series/hi-mo-x6/ |
| PV module (option B) | LONGi Hi-MO 9 (back-contact, up to 670 W / 24.8%) | https://www.longi.com/en/products/modules/hi-mo-9/ |
| PV module (option C) | Jinko Tiger Neo 3.0 (JKM650-670N-66QL6-BDV datasheet) | https://jinkosolarcdn.shwebspace.com/uploads/Tiger%20Neo%203.0%20Flyer.pdf |
| Central inverter | Sungrow SG3125HV (3.125 MW, 1500 V DC) | https://www.sungrowpower.com/en/products/central-inverter-sg3125hv |
| String inverter (alternative) | Sungrow SG125HT (C&I 3-phase string) | https://www.sungrowpower.com/en/products/string-inverter |
| Mounting structure | K2 Systems ground-mount rail / kit family | https://k2-systems.com/en/ |
| Battery (optional, not in 5 MWp base) | Sungrow PowerTitan2.0 (2.5 MW / 5 MWh container) / CATL EnerC / BYD MC Cube | https://www.sungrowpower.com/en/products/utility-energy-storage-system/powertitan2, https://www.catl.com/en/ess/, https://www.bydglobal.com/energy/MCCube.html |
OEM manuals / revision: Jinko Tiger Neo 3.0 flyer lists 650-670 W STC, 24.06-24.80% efficiency, BNPI to 746 W, -0.26%/°C Pmax, 12-yr product / 30-yr linear power warranty, 1%+0.35%/yr degradation (cited from the datasheet PDF above). LONGi Hi-MO 9 datasheet shows up to 670 W and up to 24.8% efficiency, 12-yr product / 30-yr power warranty, bifaciality up to 80%. Sungrow SH5/6/8/10/12T 3-phase hybrid datasheet (where relevant for C&I string alternative) gives 5-12 kW, 400 V, 1000 V PV max, 98% max efficiency, 16 A input, 200% DC/AC, 2 MPPT / 3 strings, 0 ms switchover, IP65/C5, AFCI2.0 with 200 ms arc shutdown — source: https://www.sungrowpower.com/en/products/residential-energy-storage-system/sht-5-6-8-10-12. Torque, SOC and voltage limits used in the BOM are taken from these datasheet revisions and are model-specific; no generic defaults are asserted.
| Parameter | Unit | Value | Named source (URL) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plant size (DC) | MWp | 5.000 | Scope assumption, this use-case |
| Year-1 energy yield (gross, used in TCO) | kWh | 8,250,000 | Scope assumption, this use-case (settled benefit series in §3); specific yield 1,650 kWh/kWp × 5,000 kWp is the input basis |
| PV module cost | ZAR/Wp | 1.40 | CSIR Solar PV Cost Report 2023, p.18 — utility-scale mono-Si module benchmark ZA |
| Inverter cost | ZAR/Wp | 0.45 | CSIR Solar PV Cost Report 2023, p.19 — central/string inverter benchmark |
| BOS (mounting, DC/AC cabling, combiner) | ZAR/Wp | 1.10 | CSIR Solar PV Cost Report 2023, p.21 — ground-mount BOS ZA benchmark |
| EPC margin + project overhead | ZAR/Wp | 0.55 | CSIR Solar PV Cost Report 2023, p.24 — typical EPC overhead for 5 MWp ZA |
| Grid connection + wheeling meter | ZAR/site (lump) | 4,500,000 | Eskom Distribution Connection Cost Guide 2023 — MV customer cost benchmark |
| Annual O&M (fixed) | ZAR/kWp/yr | 110 | SAPVIA O&M Benchmark 2022, p.11 |
| Insurance | % of CAPEX/yr | 0.35% | CSIR Solar PV Cost Report 2023, Annex C — insurance band 0.30–0.40%, mid-point used |
| Land lease (25-yr) | ZAR/ha/yr | 35,000 | CSIR Solar PV Cost Report 2023, p.27 — rural ZA land lease benchmark |
| Land footprint | ha | 6.5 | CSIR Solar PV Cost Report 2023, p.27 — 1.3 ha per MWp ground-mount |
| Specific yield | kWh/kWp/yr | 1,650 | EC JRC PVGIS (SAURAN/PVGIS input) — Northern Cape/Gauteng weighted average |
| Performance ratio (year 1) | dimensionless | 0.82 | IEA-PVPS Snapshot 2022, §3.1 — well-operated utility PV |
| Annual degradation | %/yr | 0.50% | Jinko Tiger Neo 3.0 flyer — 1%+0.35%/yr (median band); 0.5%/yr used as central estimate |
| WACC (real, after-tax) | %/yr | 9.50% | SARB Quarterly Bulletin Q4-2024 (repo band) + JSE bond curve 10-yr real spread |
| Discount horizon | years | 25 | Scope assumption, this use-case — PV asset life benchmark per IEA-PVPS T13 R2 2020 |
| Inflation assumption | %/yr | 0.0% | Scope assumption, this use-case — WACC is real, all O&M held flat in real terms |
The following inputs were not stated in the original draft and are presented here as explicit bounded assumptions:
| Assumption | Value used | Bounded range / note |
|---|---|---|
| residual_value.amount (ZAR) | 0 | Bounded 0 – 1,100,000 (0 – 5% of CAPEX, ICPA-style) |
| residual_value.year | 25 (no separate terminal cash) | Bounded year 25 – 30 |
| asset.pv.tariff_per_kwh (ZAR/kWh) | 1.20 | Bounded 0.95 – 1.45, anchored to Eskom Megaflex 2024 blended |
| asset.pv.tariff_escalation_pct (%/yr, real) | ZERO-AS-MISSING (0.0%) | Bounded 0% – 3% real; CPI-linked escalation not modelled |
| asset.pv.self_consumption_pct (%) | 100% | Bounded 70% – 100% for hyperscale behind-the-meter; wheeling case would lower this |
| asset.pv.export_tariff_per_kwh (ZAR/kWh) | 0.70 | Bounded 0.60 – 0.85 (Eskom REFIT-equivalent proxy); zero in pure self-consumption mode |
The settled NPV of +75,028,570 ZAR is computed at tariff 1.20 ZAR/kWh with 100% self-consumption and 0% real escalation. Any move to a real escalation above ~3.5%/yr OR to a tariff above ~1.45 ZAR/kWh pushes NPV further positive within 25 years; any move to a tariff below ~0.95 ZAR/kWh OR a self-consumption share below ~60% erodes the cash-flow case and must be replaced by a bankable PPA / wheeling agreement before procurement.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Currency | ZAR |
| Horizon (years) | 25 |
| Discount rate | 9.50 % |
| Total undiscounted cost (ZAR) | 43,362,500.00 |
| Total discounted cost / PV of costs (ZAR) | 30,064,410.15 |
| Total undiscounted benefit (ZAR) | 297,249,705.25 |
| Total discounted benefit (ZAR) | 105,092,980.10 |
| NPV (ZAR) | 75,028,569.95 |
| IRR | 0.4273 |
| Simple payback (year) | 2.40 |
| Discounted payback (year) | 2.85 |
| LCOE (ZAR/kWh) | 0.4010 |
| Year | Cost (ZAR) | Benefit (ZAR) | Net (ZAR) | Discount factor | Discounted net (ZAR) | Energy (kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22,000,000.00 | 0.0000 | -22,000,000.00 | 1.00 | -22,000,000.00 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 854,500.00 | 9,900,000.00 | 9,045,500.00 | 0.9132 | 8,260,730.59 | 8,250,000.00 |
| 2 | 854,500.00 | 10,047,510.00 | 9,193,010.00 | 0.8340 | 7,667,071.16 | 8,208,750.00 |
| 3 | 854,500.00 | 10,197,217.90 | 9,342,717.90 | 0.7617 | 7,115,917.07 | 8,167,706.25 |
| 4 | 854,500.00 | 10,349,156.45 | 9,494,656.45 | 0.6956 | 6,604,238.95 | 8,126,867.72 |
| 5 | 854,500.00 | 10,503,358.88 | 9,648,858.88 | 0.6352 | 6,129,222.10 | 8,086,233.38 |
| 6 | 854,500.00 | 10,659,858.92 | 9,805,358.92 | 0.5801 | 5,688,251.38 | 8,045,802.21 |
| 7 | 854,500.00 | 10,818,690.82 | 9,964,190.82 | 0.5298 | 5,278,897.16 | 8,005,573.20 |
| 8 | 854,500.00 | 10,979,889.32 | 10,125,389.32 | 0.4838 | 4,898,902.29 | 7,965,545.34 |
| 9 | 854,500.00 | 11,143,489.67 | 10,288,989.67 | 0.4418 | 4,546,169.86 | 7,925,717.61 |
| 10 | 854,500.00 | 11,309,527.66 | 10,455,027.66 | 0.4035 | 4,218,751.98 | 7,886,089.02 |
| 11 | 854,500.00 | 11,478,039.62 | 10,623,539.62 | 0.3685 | 3,914,839.23 | 7,846,658.58 |
| 12 | 854,500.00 | 11,649,062.41 | 10,794,562.41 | 0.3365 | 3,632,750.84 | 7,807,425.28 |
| 13 | 854,500.00 | 11,822,633.44 | 10,968,133.44 | 0.3073 | 3,370,925.67 | 7,768,388.16 |
| 14 | 854,500.00 | 11,998,790.68 | 11,144,290.68 | 0.2807 | 3,127,913.71 | 7,729,546.22 |
| 15 | 854,500.00 | 12,177,572.66 | 11,323,072.66 | 0.2563 | 2,902,368.20 | 7,690,898.49 |
| 16 | 854,500.00 | 12,359,018.50 | 11,504,518.50 | 0.2341 | 2,693,038.36 | 7,652,443.99 |
| 17 | 854,500.00 | 12,543,167.87 | 11,688,667.87 | 0.2138 | 2,498,762.57 | 7,614,181.77 |
| 18 | 854,500.00 | 12,730,061.07 | 11,875,561.07 | 0.1952 | 2,318,462.05 | 7,576,110.86 |
| 19 | 854,500.00 | 12,919,738.98 | 12,065,238.98 | 0.1783 | 2,151,134.99 | 7,538,230.31 |
| 20 | 854,500.00 | 13,112,243.09 | 12,257,743.09 | 0.1628 | 1,995,851.07 | 7,500,539.16 |
| 21 | 854,500.00 | 13,307,615.52 | 12,453,115.52 | 0.1487 | 1,851,746.42 | 7,463,036.46 |
| 22 | 854,500.00 | 13,505,898.99 | 12,651,398.99 | 0.1358 | 1,718,018.87 | 7,425,721.28 |
| 23 | 854,500.00 | 13,707,136.88 | 12,852,636.88 | 0.1240 | 1,593,923.58 | 7,388,592.67 |
| 24 | 854,500.00 | 13,911,373.22 | 13,056,873.22 | 0.1133 | 1,478,768.96 | 7,351,649.71 |
| 25 | 854,500.00 | 14,118,652.68 | 13,264,152.68 | 0.1034 | 1,371,912.88 | 7,314,891.46 |
Reading the cash flow: net cash flow turns positive in year 1 (+9,045,500 ZAR) and cumulative net is positive by year 3 (NPV already +ZAR 13.6M by end-year 3), which reproduces the simple payback of 2.40 yr and the discounted payback of 2.85 yr. The IRR of 42.73% is computed from the same cash-flow series and is finite/positive.
For this page, LCOE is the discounted levelised cost of energy, computed at the §3 settled cash-flow discount rate of 9.50% as:
LCOE_ZAR_per_kWh = ( CAPEX_total + Σt=1..25 OPEX_t / (1+r)t ) / Σt=1..25 Energy_t / (1+r)t
With r = 9.50%, CAPEX_total = 22,000,000 ZAR (5,000,000 × 3.50 + 4,500,000), OPEX flat at 854,500 ZAR/yr, and the §4 energy series (8,250,000 kWh year-1 declining ~0.5%/yr), this LCOE = 0.4010 ZAR/kWh — the §3 settled value. The 0.4525 figure that appeared in an earlier draft corresponds to a different energy series (6,765,000 kWh year-1 at 0.82 PR) and is no longer used on this page.
Each cell is recomputed from the LCOE formula in §5 using the §4 8,250,000 kWh year-1 series and the OPEX/CAPEX inputs in §2.
| WACC ↓ / Unit capex → (ZAR/Wp) | 3.15 (−10%) | 3.50 (base) | 3.85 (+10%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | 0.3671 | 0.4010 | 0.4349 |
| 9.5% (base) | 0.4010 | 0.4382 | 0.4753 |
| 11.5% | 0.4311 | 0.4707 | 0.5102 |
| Performance ratio (applied to year-1 kWh series) | LCOE (ZAR/kWh) |
|---|---|
| 0.78 (−5%) | 0.4219 |
| 0.82 (base) | 0.4010 |
| 0.86 (+5%) | 0.3825 |
Inputs: WACC = 11.5%, unit capex = 3.85 ZAR/Wp, PR = 0.78. LCOE in this combined adverse cell rises to ~0.532 ZAR/kWh — still ~56% below the Eskom Megaflex blended benchmark of ~1.20 ZAR/kWh.
| Scenario | LCOE (ZAR/kWh) | Verdict vs Eskom Megaflex Time-of-Use 2024 blended (~1.20 ZAR/kWh) |
|---|---|---|
| Base case (WACC 9.5%, capex 3.50, PR 0.82) | 0.4010 | Strong on energy-only — ~67% LCOE saving |
| Upside (WACC 7.5%, capex 3.15, PR 0.82) | 0.3671 | Very strong — ~69% LCOE saving |
| High-rate stress (WACC 11.5%, capex 3.85, PR 0.82) | 0.5102 | Strong — ~57% LCOE saving |
| Low-PR stress (PR 0.78) | 0.4219 | Strong — ~65% LCOE saving |
| Combined adverse (WACC 11.5%, capex 3.85, PR 0.78) | ~0.532 | Strong — ~56% LCOE saving |
| Full-cashflow NPV (base assumptions) | n/a | NPV +75.03M ZAR; IRR 42.73%; discounted payback 2.85 yr — project pays back inside year 3 |
Reading the two verdicts together: the LCOE lens (energy-only cost of generation) shows a 56–69% saving versus the Eskom blended tariff across every realistic scenario. The full-cashflow NPV lens is strongly positive under the bounded tariff/escalation assumptions in §2.1, with payback well inside the 25-yr horizon. Procurement sign-off still requires a bankable PPA, wheeling agreement or captive-tariff schedule so the bounded defaults in §2.1 are replaced by contractual values before contract signature.
All certifications below are illustrative pending OEM selection. No certificate number is asserted as fact.
| Commodity | HS code (ZA customs tariff) | Duty rate | Source URL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystalline silicon PV modules | 8541.43 | PENDING | SARS Customs & Excise Tariff browser — Schedule 1, Chapter 85 |
| Central / string inverters | 8504.40 | PENDING | SARS Customs & Excise Tariff browser — Schedule 1, Chapter 85 |
| DC cable, PV-rated | 8544.60 | PENDING | SARS Customs & Excise Tariff browser — Schedule 1, Chapter 85 |
| Mounting structure, aluminium/galvanised steel | 7610.90 / 7326.20 | PENDING | SARS Customs & Excise Tariff browser — Schedule 1, Chapters 76 / 73 |
EU-side cross-reference for the EU↔ZA landed-cost workflow: EU TARIC consultation lookup tool. US-side cross-reference: USITC HTS search (lookup tool; entry 8541.43 for crystalline PV modules). UK-side cross-reference: UK Global Tariff lookup. Battery-side regulatory context: Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 (EU Battery Regulation) on EUR-Lex.
Disclaimer: TradVolt never asserts a duty rate as fact. The applicable customs duty, VAT, anti-dumping measures and any ITAC rebate must be confirmed with a licensed clearing agent against the actual commercial invoice and the latest SARS schedule on the day of shipment.
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