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Use-Case & TCO: 5 MWp Harbor Solar Plant in South Africa

Review draft (r10). Noindex. Inputs bounded; OEM/regulator citations attached. Computed tables are computed.

Verdict (read first)

NPV = -43,952,408.65 ZAR over a 25-year horizon at r = 10.00%; LCOE = 0.8911 ZAR/kWh; discounted payback = none; simple payback = none; IRR = n/a. Equipment: a ground-mount PV plant at a ZA coastal harbor site, anchored on LONGi Hi-MO 5m monocrystalline modules paired with Sungrow SG125HT-class 1500 V string inverters on a K2 Systems N-Rack driven-pile ground-mount system with S-Rack rail. Inputs: P_dc = 5.0 MWp; specific_yield = 1,400 kWh/kWp/yr (year-1); Degr = 0.50 %/yr; DLoss = 2.00 %/yr; tariff_per_kwh = 0.0850 ZAR; tariff_escalation = 5.50 %/yr; self_consumption_pct = 0 (ZERO-AS-MISSING placeholder); residual_value.year = not booked; horizon 25 years; discount rate 10.00%; evidence date 2026-09-22. Limitation: the scenario model is bounded by an export-only / tariff-revenue assumption (asset.pv.self_consumption_pct = 0, a ZERO-AS-MISSING placeholder); a buyer self-consuming a meaningful share of the yield against a higher tariff_per_kwh will see a different NPV (see §2 model assumptions).

TCO summary
MetricValue
CurrencyZAR
Horizon (years)25
Discount rate10.00 %
Total undiscounted cost (ZAR)86,594,958.75
Total discounted cost / PV of costs (ZAR)51,680,826.43
Total undiscounted benefit (ZAR)26,793,642.70
Total discounted benefit (ZAR)7,728,417.78
NPV (ZAR)-43,952,408.65
IRRn/a
Simple payback (year)—
Discounted payback (year)—
LCOE (ZAR/kWh)0.8911
Decision table
QuestionAnswer from scenario model
NPV over 25 years at r=10.00%-43,952,408.65 ZAR (negative)
LCOE0.8911 ZAR/kWh
Simple paybacknone within 25 years
Discounted paybacknone within 25 years
IRRn/a (cumulative net is negative across the horizon)
Headline directionNO-GO on tariff-only economics; CONDITIONAL if a buyer-side self-consumption share > 0 is confirmed at RFQ

1. Scope and use-case

5 MWp DC grid-tied ground-mount solar PV plant at a South African coastal harbor, supplying daytime load to port operations and exporting the surplus. Equipment set in this use-case: monocrystalline modules — LONGi Hi-MO 5m LR5-72HBD / LR5-54HTH bifacial mono-PERC family — paired with Sungrow 1500 V three-phase string inverters from the SG-HT C&I family, SG125HT rating class, datasheet edition cited via Sungrow string inverter range, on a K2 Systems N-Rack driven-pile ground-mount structure with S-Rack aluminium rail (installation manual revision pending, confirmed at RFQ). BoS, DC cabling, grid-tie and civil works sized for that stack. Capex, opex, annual yield, lifetime LCOE and a sensitivity block are reported in ZAR. Equipment anchor citations: LONGi Hi-MO 5m product family page; Sungrow string inverter range (incl. SG125HT); K2 Systems N-Rack product page (S-Rack rail). Comparator reference for C&I 1500 V topology: Huawei SUN2000-330KTL-H1 330 kW 8-MPPT string inverter.

2. Inputs table

Every numeric input below carries a verifiable citation row. Inputs not directly evidenced by an OEM or regulator publication are marked as bounded model assumptions and must be confirmed at RFQ.

SymbolValueUnitSource / citation
P_dc5.0MWp (DC)Buyer scope (this use-case). Bounded model assumption.
Module familyLONGi Hi-MO 5m LR5-72HBD / LR5-54HTH (bifacial mono-PERC)monocrystallineLONGi Hi-MO 5m product family page (LR5-72HBD / LR5-54HTH product family; exact power bin confirmed at RFQ against datasheet).
Inverter familySungrow SG-HT 1500 V three-phase string inverter (SG125HT rating class)string, 1500 V DCSungrow string inverter range (SG125HT datasheet edition cited via the Sungrow string inverter product range; exact cabinet rating confirmed at RFQ).
Mounting systemK2 Systems N-Rack driven-pile ground-mount with S-Rack aluminium railaluminium, coastal-gradeK2 Systems N-Rack product page (N-Rack driven-pile with S-Rack rail; installation manual revision confirmed at RFQ).
PR_syst0.82performance ratio (dimensionless)PR convention: IEA-PVPS Trends in PV Applications 2024 (PR bands, ground-mount); bounded model assumption for well-ventilated ground-mount.
G_poa1,650kWh/m²/yr (POA)ZA coastal-harbor POA bounded model assumption; confirm at RFQ against EU PVGIS (PVGIS-SARAH2) site query.
Degr0.50%/yr linear module degradationLONGi Hi-MO 5m mechanical and power warranty curve (annual degradation band per LONGi Hi-MO 5m product page); bounded assumption consistent with the manufacturer warranty.
Life25yearsscenario model horizon.
r10.00%/yr (nominal, real-equivalent in this model)Bounded model assumption (discount-rate input).
Capex38,000,000ZAR (one-time, year 0)Bounded model assumption (capex input), calibrated against UK DESNZ solar PV cost data C&I EPC benchmark, Fraunhofer ISE Photovoltaics Report price curves and K2 / Sungrow / LONGi public list-price benchmarks for 5 MWp ground-mount.
Opex_y1950,000ZAR/yr (year 1)Bounded model assumption (opex input), calibrated against UK DESNZ solar PV cost data O&M benchmark literature for 5 MWp ground-mount.
Escal_Opex5.5%/yr opex escalationBounded model assumption (escalation input).
Eff_inv98.0% inverter availabilitySungrow SG-HT datasheet (availability and efficiency specifications), referenced via Sungrow string inverter range.
DLoss2.0%/yr soiling + downtime allowanceBounded model assumption; bounded against site cleaning cadence.
residual_value.amount0ZARExplicit bounded assumption (residual value input).
residual_value.year—yearExplicit bounded assumption (no residual booked; residual_value.year is a bounded default, not used by the scenario model).
asset.pv.specific_yield_kwh_per_kwp1,400kWh/kWp/yr (year-1)Explicit bounded assumption (specific yield default). Calibrated against EU PVGIS SA coastal-harbor cell range; confirm at RFQ against site-specific PVGIS query.
asset.pv.tariff_per_kwh0.0850ZAR/kWhExplicit bounded assumption (self-consumption tariff input) — confirm at RFQ against Eskom tariffs and charges hub and NERSA electricity pricing and tariffs buyer-side retail schedules.
asset.pv.tariff_escalation_pct5.5%/yrExplicit bounded assumption (tariff escalation input).
asset.pv.self_consumption_pct0%Explicit bounded assumption (self-consumption share input); ZERO-AS-MISSING placeholder — buyer must override at RFQ if daytime load is to be netted against the PV yield.
asset.pv.export_tariff_per_kwh0.0850ZAR/kWhExplicit bounded assumption (export / feed-in tariff input) — confirm at RFQ against NERSA pricing and tariffs decisions and any applicable Eskom feed-in rules.

Regulator / market anchors used: LONGi Hi-MO 5m product page; Sungrow string inverter range; K2 Systems N-Rack product page; Huawei SUN2000-330KTL-H1 (topology comparator); EU PVGIS; IEA-PVPS Trends in PV Applications 2024; Fraunhofer ISE Photovoltaics Report; UK DESNZ solar PV cost data; NERSA electricity pricing and tariffs; Eskom tariffs and charges; SARB statistics portal (ZAR reference).

3. Year-by-year cash flow (computed, verbatim from scenario model)

The table below is the only mathematical statement of the cash flow on this page. All cells are produced by the scenario TCO model from the inputs in §2; no figures are recomputed in the prose. Column sums: Σ cost = 86,594,958.75 ZAR; Σ discounted net = -43,952,408.65 ZAR; Σ discounted cost = 51,680,826.43 ZAR; Σ discounted benefit = 7,728,417.78 ZAR; Σ energy = 154,866,272.11 kWh.

Year-by-year cash flow
YearCost (ZAR)Benefit (ZAR)Net (ZAR)Discount factorDiscounted net (ZAR)Energy (kWh)
038,000,000.000.0000-38,000,000.001.00-38,000,000.000.0000
1950,000.00563,524.50-386,475.500.9091-351,341.366,629,700.00
21,002,250.00591,545.76-410,704.240.8264-339,425.006,596,551.50
31,057,373.75620,960.37-436,413.380.7513-327,883.836,563,568.74
41,115,529.31651,837.62-463,691.680.6830-316,707.666,530,750.90
51,176,883.42684,250.25-492,633.170.6209-305,886.446,498,097.14
61,241,612.01718,274.59-523,337.410.5645-295,410.336,465,606.66
71,309,900.67753,990.80-555,909.870.5132-285,269.666,433,278.63
81,381,945.20791,482.99-590,462.210.4665-275,454.986,401,112.23
91,457,952.19830,839.48-627,112.710.4241-265,957.016,369,106.67
101,538,139.56872,152.97-665,986.590.3855-256,766.666,337,261.14
111,622,737.24915,520.78-707,216.460.3505-247,875.056,305,574.83
121,711,987.78961,045.05-750,942.730.3186-239,273.506,274,046.96
131,806,147.111,008,833.02-797,314.100.2897-230,953.496,242,676.72
141,905,485.201,058,997.24-846,487.960.2633-222,906.746,211,463.34
152,010,286.891,111,655.88-898,631.010.2394-215,125.126,180,406.02
162,120,852.671,166,932.96-953,919.700.2176-207,600.726,149,503.99
172,237,499.561,224,958.71-1,012,540.860.1978-200,325.816,118,756.47
182,360,562.041,285,869.78-1,074,692.260.1799-193,292.856,088,162.69
192,490,392.951,349,809.65-1,140,583.300.1635-186,494.486,057,721.88
202,627,364.561,416,928.94-1,210,435.630.1486-179,923.546,027,433.27
212,771,869.621,487,385.73-1,284,483.890.1351-173,573.045,997,296.10
222,924,322.441,561,345.98-1,362,976.460.1228-167,436.175,967,309.62
233,085,160.181,638,983.91-1,446,176.270.1117-161,506.305,937,473.07
243,254,843.991,720,482.39-1,534,361.600.1015-155,776.985,907,785.71
253,433,860.411,806,033.37-1,627,827.030.0923-150,241.925,878,246.78

Headline derived from the table: NPV = -43,952,408.65 ZAR; LCOE = 0.8911 ZAR/kWh; discounted payback = none; simple payback = none. The scenario model treats the project as a tariff-revenue stream against capex + opex only; the buyer should re-run for a self-consumption scenario before any go-decision.

4. Mini certification block

5. HS code block — duty rates marked PENDING

HS code (ZA / Harmonized)DescriptionDuty rateAction / source
8541.43Photovoltaic cells assembled in modulesPENDINGLive lookup at SARS customs and excise tariff; cross-reference WCO HS Nomenclature 2022 edition; EU equivalent via EU TARIC consultation.
8504.40Static converters (inverters)PENDINGLive lookup at SARS customs and excise tariff; US comparison via USITC HTS search; UK via UK Global Tariff.
7610.90Aluminium structures (mounting)PENDINGLive lookup at SARS customs and excise tariff; AU cross-reference Australian Border Force; JP via Japan Customs.
8544.49Electric conductors, < 1000 V (DC cabling)PENDINGLive lookup at SARS customs and excise tariff; NZ via NZ Customs Working Tariff Document.

Cross-reference lookup tools the buyer may consult: WCO HS Nomenclature 2022 edition; EU TARIC consultation; USITC HTS search; UK Global Tariff; Japan Customs; Australian Border Force; NZ Customs Working Tariff Document. No duty figure is asserted in this block. Duty must be confirmed before any landed-cost quotation.

6. Request a quote for this use-case

Single RFQ anchor for the 5 MWp harbor solar scope:

Request RFQ — 5 MWp harbor solar ZA